Thundersnow12 Posted June 27, 2014 Author Share Posted June 27, 2014 The CIPS website has 6/18/2010 (which featured two severe MCSs in like an eight hour period for Northern Illinois) as the top analog for Monday. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20100618 One of my all time favorite severe wx days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 27, 2014 Share Posted June 27, 2014 And the day before was a pretty big tornado day further N/W of the area too. I like how IL/IA & parts of WI look Monday and I'm definitely interested in where I'll be (LSE) Sunday It was an extremely big tornado day. And Sunday might be too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 27, 2014 Author Share Posted June 27, 2014 It was an extremely big tornado day. And Sunday might be too. I'm still trying to get a good handle on Sunday and if I want to make the trip out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 27, 2014 Share Posted June 27, 2014 The CIPS website has 6/18/2010 (which featured two severe MCSs in like an eight hour period for Northern Illinois) as the top analog for Monday. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20100618 hot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 It was an extremely big tornado day. And Sunday might be too. Minnesota set their all-time record for tornadoes in a day, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 Minnesota set their all-time record for tornadoes in a day, no? Yes, with 48. Really was a phenomenal (and underrated) event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 Yes, with 48. Really was a phenomenal (and underrated) event. 4 EF4s that day. That doesn't happen very often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 I think IIRC there was a point where there was four distinct couplets in the Albert Lea area, with at least two of them producing tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 Since WI is in this region, this is the highest STP I've seen out of the NAM so far: Regardless of it storms manage to stay discrete or organize into an MCS, I would imagine that there's going to be a pretty significant tornado threat in part of MN/WI/IA into the evening and overnight hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 28, 2014 Author Share Posted June 28, 2014 Since WI is in this region, this is the highest STP I've seen out of the NAM so far: namCGP_con_stp_051.gif Regardless of it storms manage to stay discrete or organize into an MCS, I would imagine that there's going to be a pretty significant tornado threat in part of MN/WI/IA into the evening and overnight hours. Might want to look at 18z Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 28, 2014 Author Share Posted June 28, 2014 The GFS just went back to it's major big run from yesterday. Look out southern WI/northern IL and extreme eastern IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 A little OT but anyone been following that system that the models are trying to develop off the southeast coast? Fortunately it doesn't really look like it's going to play a role in what happens in our area (in terms of cloud cover/precip) so I guess we can be thankful to have one potential complication off the table lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 00z GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 28, 2014 Author Share Posted June 28, 2014 Just south of MSN you have SBCAPE of 4100 j/kg, helicity values of 950 and an EHI of 20.... At 21z Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 Monday definitely has tremendous conditional potential. Don't see wind fields as impressive as what's forecast very often in late June. If Sunday/Sunday night's sloppy seconds don't muddle things too badly Monday will be a high end event to be sure. With such an impressive synoptic setup I'm guessing even if Sunday's leftovers muddle things some there will still likely be widespread severe taking off later in the day on Monday. If the previous day's convection/debris gets out of the way early enough then the ceiling for Monday is sky high. Gonna be interesting to watch how this evolves later this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 Monday definitely has tremendous conditional potential. Don't see wind fields as impressive as what's forecast very often in late June. If Sunday/Sunday night's sloppy seconds don't muddle things too badly Monday will be a high end event to be sure. With such an impressive synoptic setup I'm guessing even if Sunday's leftovers muddle things some there will still likely be widespread severe taking off later in the day on Monday. If the previous day's convection/debris gets out of the way early enough then the ceiling for Monday is sky high. Gonna be interesting to watch how this evolves later this weekend. That's kinda what the 00z NAM was hinting at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 I'm actually home right now. I've been planning to leave on Sunday, but that might change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 Allow me to analog drop for a sec... June 30, 1977. It's not a great match synoptically (and Monday's threat looks like it will be farther north) but the shear appears similar and there was a 70+ kt 500 mb jet. Bonus points for falling on June 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 Just south of MSN you have SBCAPE of 4100 j/kg, helicity values of 950 and an EHI of 20.... At 21z Monday Noticed that as well, not surprised that these off the wall parameters showed up now that we lost the VV explosions at 500/700mb overnight Sunday Night. I would expect a talked up outlook for Monday and Sunday back west as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 Noticed that as well, not surprised that these off the wall parameters showed up now that we lost the VV explosions at 500/700mb overnight Sunday Night. I would expect a talked up outlook for Monday and Sunday back west as well. Lack of a risk area on this morning's day 4 outlook makes me wonder about that. I'm expecting a 30% area on the new day 3 outlook when it comes out but I don't think I'd be shocked if it's only 15%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 Allow me to analog drop for a sec... June 30, 1977. It's not a great match synoptically (and Monday's threat looks like it will be farther north) but the shear appears similar and there was a 70+ kt 500 mb jet. Bonus points for falling on June 30. 6/7/08 might be another decent one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 Lack of a risk area on this morning's day 4 outlook makes me wonder about that. I'm expecting a 30% area on the new day 3 outlook when it comes out but I don't think I'd be shocked if it's only 15%. I would be shocked if it is a 15%, all models are at the very least showing a strong squall line for Monday in E IA/IL/WI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 Just south of MSN you have SBCAPE of 4100 j/kg, helicity values of 950 and an EHI of 20.... At 21z Monday You mean this sounding? Talk about an amazing sounding, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 New day 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 Day 2 text DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1223 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014VALID 291200Z - 301200Z...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSSPARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISSOURI VALLEY REGION INTOPARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY......SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...A FEWTORNADOES...AND SWATHS OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR POSSIBLE SUNDAYINTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEYNORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY....SYNOPSIS...MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT A STRONG ZONAL MID/UPPER JET STREAKEMERGING FROM THE PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS INLAND ACROSSTHE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD. AS THISOCCURS...SUBTROPICAL RIDGING LIKELY WILL BECOME MORE PROMINENTACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES. THIS RIDGING IS FORECAST TO REMAINRATHER FLAT...HOWEVER...AS FLOW EAST OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGHTHE GREAT LAKES REGION REMAINS BROADLY CYCLONIC...TO THE SOUTH OF ADEEPENING LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE NEAR THE NORTHWESTONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER. WITHIN THE STRONG BELT OF FLOW NOSING TOTHE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE...THE FIRST COUPLE IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE NORTHERNPLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST.WHILE MOISTENING AHEAD OF THE REMNANTS OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGHINGNOW ADVANCING THROUGH THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TOCONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPIVALLEY THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS...THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ANDSOUTHEAST...STRONGEST STORM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY WILL BECOME FOCUSEDACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI INTO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.MOISTURE RETURN ON STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW INTO THIS REGION ISEXPECTED...AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS ISFORECAST TO COINCIDE WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD ADVECTION OF VERY WARMELEVATED MIXED-LAYER AIR ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS...TOWARDTHE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...CONTRIBUTING TO LARGE CAPE ON THESOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER WESTERLIES....N CNTRL PLAINS/MID MO VALLEY INTO UPPER MS VALLEY...UNCERTAINTIES PERSIST CONCERNING THE DETAILS OF THE CONVECTIVEEVOLUTION ON SUNDAY...AND PERHAPS THE TIMING OF STORM INITIATION.HOWEVER...GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY BEEN SUGGESTIVE THAT A DEVELOPINGAREA OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THEWESTERLIES COULD PROVIDE THE FORCING AND FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATIONSOMETIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE SIOUX FALLSSD/SIOUX CITY IA AREA. THIS DEVELOPMENT PROBABLY WILL INITIALLY BEDISCRETE...AND COULD INTENSIFY RAPIDLY IN AN ENVIRONMENTCHARACTERIZED BY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...CAPE OF 2000-4000J/KG AND STRONG SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. JUST HOWLONG ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL BE ABLE TO REMAIN DISCRETE IS NOTCLEAR...BUT SUPERCELLS COULD PERSIST AND PERHAPS INCREASE IN NUMBERWHILE SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH PARTS OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ANDNORTHERN IOWA.EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...IF NOT EARLIER...INITIAL ACTIVITY STILL SEEMSLIKELY TO CONGEAL INTO AN INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERCAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS NEAR/EAST OFTHE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT SOME POINT...ANOTHER AREA OFSTRENGTHENING LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION...ON THE NOSE OFWARMER AND MORE STRONGLY CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER AIR...SEEMSLIKELY TO FOCUS ADDITIONAL INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSSPARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. VERY LARGE HAIL MAY BE THEPRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY INITIALLY. HOWEVER...INCREASINGORGANIZATION AND UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH APPEARS POSSIBLE ON THENOSE OF A STRENGTHENING /30-50 KT/ SOUTHERLY 850 MB JETOVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDGUSTS...KERR.. 06/28/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 The Euro is pretty incredible for Monday as well and it continues potential after dark maintaining good instability as the LLJ cranks up across lower Michigan, not to mention at 06z there is a 991mb low near Marquette, the wind fields with this system are going to be damn impressive for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 New day 3 DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0230 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014VALID 301200Z - 011200Z...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSSPORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...MID MISSOURI VALLEY...SOUTHWESTERNGREAT LAKES REGION AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY......SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY THE RISK FOR LARGE HAILAND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY INTOMONDAY NIGHT...FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD INTOSOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES...AND WEST SOUTHWESTWARDTHROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS....SYNOPSIS...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE WESTERLIES WILL UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION ACROSSTHE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THISLIKELY WILL INCLUDE INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW DEVELOPINGSOUTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES...WITH THE BASEOF THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CENTRALPLAINS/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z TUESDAY. THIS STILL APPEARSLIKELY TO BE PRECEDED BY THE EASTWARD ADVECTION OF A PLUME OF VERYWARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLEMISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THE LEADING EDGE OF WHICH MAY CONTINUE THROUGHMUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. BENEATH THE STEEPMID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD ADVANCING COLDFRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURECONTENT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG BOUNDARY LAYERBASED CAPE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER A SIZABLE AREA FROM THE CENTRALPLAINS THROUGH MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY....CNTRL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY/SWRN GREAT LAKES/LWR OH VALLEY...UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE DETAILS OF THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION ONSUNDAY LEAD TO INCREASING UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.HOWEVER...ASSUMING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOWSUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT DOES NOT BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE THANCURRENTLY ANTICIPATED... IT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT CONSIDERABLETHUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BE ONGOING NEAR/EAST OF THE MIDDLEMISSOURI VALLEY AT 12Z MONDAY. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS POSSIBLETHAT SOME COMBINATION OF A REMNANT CONVECTIVELY GENERATED CYCLONICVORTEX...OR ASSOCIATED LARGER-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICALMOTION...WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR RENEWED INTENSE STORM DEVELOPMENTACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI DURINGTHE DAY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO PROPAGATE EAST SOUTHEASTWARDTHROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...PERHAPS PORTIONSOF LOWER MICHIGAN. AT THE SAME TIME...ADDITIONAL INTENSE STORMDEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP WEST SOUTHWARD ALONG THEPRE-COLD FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS...ACROSS MISSOURI AND PARTS OFEASTERN/SOUTHERN KANSAS...INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY EARLYMONDAY EVENING.VARIABILITY DOES EXIST AMONG THE MODELS/ENSEMBLE DATA CONCERNING THESTRENGTH OF THE PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL FLOW...AND THE STRENGTH OFWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT REMAINS UNCERTAIN.HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE EXPECTED POTENTIAL INSTABILITY/2000-3000+ J PER KG/...VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TOSUPPORT THE RISK FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CAPABLE OFPRODUCING CONSIDERABLE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...KERR.. 06/28/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 New day 3 With only 15% and no mention of the T word, you could call that a conservative outlook. Should start to see the probabilities/wording ramp up as uncertainties become resolved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 With only 15% and no mention of the T word, you could call that a conservative outlook. Should start to see the probabilities/wording ramp up as uncertainties become resolved. Ultra conservative to say the least, not to mention the MI fear mixed in as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 With only 15% and no mention of the T word, you could call that a conservative outlook. Should start to see the probabilities/wording ramp up as uncertainties become resolved. I would bloody hope so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.