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June 28-July 1 Severe Threat


Thundersnow12

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Possible watch for west/central IL.

 

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1226
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0726 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN IA...CNTRL/WRN IL...FAR NERN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 010026Z - 010230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASE IN THE
SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DMGG WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DEPOSITED BY AN EARLIER MCS
ARCS FROM CNTRL IL INTO S-CNTRL IA. SFC PRESSURE FALLS N OF THIS
BOUNDARY INDUCED BY WARM ADVECTION SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY MAY RETREAT
NWD INTO THE EVENING. THE AIR MASS S OF THE BOUNDARY IS
CHARACTERIZED BY ROBUST BUOYANCY...WITH AROUND 4000 J/KG OF MLCAPE
SAMPLED BY THE 00Z ILX RAOB AIDED BY A 18-G/KG LOWEST-100-MB MEAN
MIXING RATIO BENEATH AN H7-H5 LAPSE RATE AROUND 8.5 C/KM. WITH THE
MOST PROMINENT ANTECEDENT CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING HAVING OCCURRED
ACROSS FAR NRN IL AND SRN WI...STORMS FROM SRN IA TO NRN MO WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO FURTHER INTENSIFY EWD INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA
AS A LLJ STRENGTHENS AMIDST INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT. IN ADDITION TO DMGG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...STRONG LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR -- PARTICULARLY IN PROXIMITY TO THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY -- MAY
SUPPORT A FEW TORNADOES.

..COHEN/DIAL.. 07/01/2014

 

post-4544-0-76147500-1404175327_thumb.gi

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1227   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0747 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN IL...NWRN INDIANA...SWRN LOWER MI   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 375...   VALID 010047Z - 010215Z   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 375   CONTINUES.   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS CONTINUES ACROSS REMAINING   VALID PORTIONS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 375.   DISCUSSION...THE SRN-FLANKING PORTION OF THE MCS CURRENTLY CROSSING   LAKE MICHIGAN TRAILS SWWD INTO NERN IL. VWPS SUGGESTS THAT THE   LEADING CONVECTIVE LINE IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY PARALLEL TO THE   MID-LEVEL FLOW FAVORING A MORE ANAFRONTAL FLOW REGIME. HOWEVER...AS   LONG AS PARENT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO RESIDE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO   RELATED QUASI-LINEAR OUTFLOW...AIDED BY EWD PROPAGATION INTO STRONG   INSTABILITY...DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN A MODERATELY   SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

 

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Lot of thunder shaking the house, even got a few pictures of lightning strokes, but we didn't breach 40MPH here. Only thing worth mentioning was some sustained heavy rain.

Warily watching the DVN line.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
810 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN DAVIESS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...
GRUNDY COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...
SOUTHWESTERN SULLIVAN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 845 PM CDT

* AT 808 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST
OF TRENTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.


HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TRENTON...GALT...TINDALL...LAREDO AND HUMPHREYS.

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