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June 28-July 1 Severe Threat


Thundersnow12

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Finally a new Svr Warning in IL, this time for the giant rain maker that appears to be bowing slightly.

 

As for N. MO, I wondered if we were going to see some discrete supercells down that direction. Instability is through the roof down there

 

EDIT: New Tornado Watch for Northern MO

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ww0376_radar.gif

 

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 376   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   530 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A   * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF      WESTERN ILLINOIS     NORTHEASTERN KANSAS     NORTHERN MISSOURI   * EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 530 PM     UNTIL 100 AM CDT.   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...     A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE     SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2       INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE     SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 125 STATUTE   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF   KIRKSVILLE MISSOURI TO 80 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHILLICOTHE   MISSOURI.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
   DISCUSSION...STORMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO   DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF A SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT. STORMS OVER   EXTREME NRN MO MAY INTERACT WITH A PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY   WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE TORNADO THREAT. OTHERWISE...STRONG   INSTABILITY AND 40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...BUT   WITH TIME STORMS MAY TEND TO EVOLVE INTO CLUSTERS LATER THIS   EVENING. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE   POSSIBLE.   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE   WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO   500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26035.

 

All 40/30 Probs except Winds, whcih are 40/20

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LOT update....

 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
525 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...521 PM

THE CURRENT FOCUS IS WITH THE AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION JUST WEST OF
BUREAU COUNTY. THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A REAR INFLOW JET
TRYING TO DEVELOP...WHICH COULD FAVOR THIS STORM TO TRANSITION INTO
ANOTHER FORWARD PROPAGATING BOWING SEGMENT WITHIN THE HALF HOUR. IF
THIS DOES OCCUR...THIS BOWING SEGMENT WOULD LIKELY SHIFT EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE I-80 TO I-88 CORRIDORS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS...POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE CHICAGO AREA AROUND 7 PM. WE
WILL BE MONITORING THIS CLOSELY.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO LINE UP WEST TO EAST ACROSS WESTERN
ILLINOIS...AND OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THIS AREA
IS ALONG THE GRADIENT OF A STRONGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...WITH
AROUND 5000 J/KG MLCAPE AND 2 INCH PWATS...AS INDICATED FROM
LATEST RAP MESOANALYSIS. WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING
TO STREAM INTO THIS AREA VIA STOUT SOUTHERLY WINDS...CONTINUED
REGENERATION OF STORMS IS LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN ILLINOIS...AND
THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST...SETTING UP TRAINING STORMS. THIS
ACTIVITY INCREASES THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...AND AS SUCH...WE HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD MUCH FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
 

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starting to get reports of funnels from the MO cell

 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
546 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0502 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 1 NE PARNELL 40.45N 94.61W
06/30/2014 NODAWAY MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL REPORTS OF FUNNEL CLOUDS. POWER LINES REPORTED
DOWN AS WELL.


&&

$

APIETRYC

 

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1222

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0608 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL IL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 374...

VALID 302308Z - 010015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 374 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A SVR-TSTM RISK IS EVOLVING ACROSS CNTRL IL. WITH TORNADO

WATCH 374 CURRENTLY SET TO EXPIRE AT 0000Z...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE

WW MAY NEED TO BE LOCALLY EXTENDED IN TIME OR AREA.

DISCUSSION...ONGOING INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OVER THE SRN FLANK

OF A MATURE MCS WHOSE PRIMARY BOWING SEGMENT APEX IS SURGING THROUGH

SRN WI...CONTINUE EVOLVING IN CNTRL IL. A FEED OF RICH LOW-LEVEL

MOISTURE FROM THE S ASSOCIATED WITH MIDDLE 70S DEWPOINTS WILL

CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN THIS ACTIVITY AMIDST AROUND 35 KT OF 0-6-KM BULK

SHEAR PER ILX VWP. WITH POTENTIAL SWD CONVECTIVE PROPAGATION INTO AN

EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN CNTRL IL...AND WITH THE SVR RISK

POSSIBLY LINGERING IN PARTS OF TORNADO WATCH 374 AFTER 0000Z...LOCAL

AREAL/TEMPORAL EXTENSIONS OF THE WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY. IN ADDITION

TO DMGG WINDS AND SVR HAIL...THE RISK FOR A TORNADO MAY PERSIST WITH

AROUND 200 M2/S2 OF 0-1-KM SRH.

..COHEN.. 06/30/2014

 

 

post-4544-0-37298200-1404170050_thumb.gi

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