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June 28-July 1 Severe Threat


Thundersnow12

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HRRR showing massive bust potential for the southern part of the moderate risk area

 

4km NAM nest and both HRW flavors (NMMB and ARW) showed this as well.

 

Also, it looks like the MCS is moving into an area where LFC heights are much higher. The LFC-LCL difference is > 1000m in the IA/IL border area.

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hello

 

...

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL  344 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...    CLINTON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...    EASTERN DUBUQUE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST IOWA...    JACKSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...    SCOTT COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...    WESTERN CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...    JO DAVIESS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...    UPPER ROCK ISLAND COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...    WHITESIDE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...    * UNTIL 430 PM CDT    * AT 338 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE    EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF ST. DONATUS TO LONG GROVE...AND    MOVING NORTHEAST AT 85 MPH.    
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hello

...

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL  
344 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A  
  
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
  CLINTON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...  
  EASTERN DUBUQUE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST IOWA...  
  JACKSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...  
  SCOTT COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...  
  WESTERN CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...  
  JO DAVIESS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...  
  UPPER ROCK ISLAND COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...  
  WHITESIDE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...  
  
* UNTIL 430 PM CDT  
  
* AT 338 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE  
  EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF ST. DONATUS TO LONG GROVE...AND  
  MOVING NORTHEAST AT 85 MPH.  
  
that has to be a typo...
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The thing still has a nice vortex and RIJ...but the lack or re-generation and the OFB starting to push out ahead of it from the QC on south isn't good.

 

Likely maxed out while in the CID area.

It'll reintensify over northern Illinois when it interacts with the core of the instability axis.

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The thing still has a nice vortex and RIJ...but the lack or re-generation and the OFB starting to push out ahead of it from the QC on south isn't good.

 

Likely maxed out while in the CID area.

 

I'd wait until it is past the QC area, as noted earlier it was worked over considerably and the instability in that area was lower than other surrounding areas.

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This might come back to bite me but have to wonder if most of the LOT cwa outside of the northern row or two may be spared relatively speaking.  Recent trends certainly aren't good, which kinda doesn't make sense given the environment, but things can change fast.

 

Edit:  I see you guys beat me

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New development north of Galesburg almost looks like the beginning of a WAA wing.  If that's the case the highest winds will likely stay along and south of I-80 in IL. 

Wouldn't be surprising. Outside of near the vortex, which is heading northeast into SW. WI...Those are some of the best looking storms in that corridor...leading edge is starting to drop a bit southeast as well.

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