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June 28-July 1 Severe Threat


Thundersnow12

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New day 1

 

 

 

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0252 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014  
 
VALID 302000Z - 011200Z  

 
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST  
FROM ERN IA INTO SWRN LOWER MI/NWRN INDIANA...  
 
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM  
LOWER MI...SWWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
DAMAGING SQUALL LINE WITH WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 60-70 MPH  
WILL SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN  
WISCONSIN BY 7PM. SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED  
ACROSS THE SURROUNDING MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH  
PLAINS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.  
   
..EASTERN IA/NORTHERN IL/SOUTHERN WI
 
 
CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION THAT ORIGINATED OVER THE MID MO VALLEY HAVE  
RECENTLY EVOLVED INTO A MATURE SQUALL LINE OVER EASTERN IA. WHILE  
MULTIPLE STORM MODES WERE NOTED EARLIER IN THE CONVECTIVE  
EVOLUTION...IT APPEARS A WELL-ORGANIZED DAMAGING MCS WILL RACE  
ACROSS ERN IA INTO NRN IL/SRN WI OVER THE NEXT 4-5 HOURS. LEADING  
EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY IS SURGING EAST AT 50KT+ AND NUMEROUS MEASURED  
WIND GUSTS OF 50-64KT HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO  
ACROSS IA. IF SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE WIND SPEEDS COULD  
EASILY EXCEED 65KT AT THE APEX OF THIS EVOLVING BOW AS IT SPREADS  
INTO NRN IL. GIVEN THE CURRENT SPEED/MOVEMENT IT SHOULD SPREAD INTO  
WESTERN PORTIONS OF METRO CHICAGO BETWEEN 5-6 PM. DAMAGING WINDS  
ARE HIGHLY LIKELY WITH THIS CONVECTION.  
 
ELSEWHERE...EARLIER THOUGHTS REGARDING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL REMAIN.  
 
..DARROW.. 06/30/2014 

 

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Too late now to be posting model outputs for forecast purposes, but the 00Z 4km NAM nest from last night seems to be predicting the MCV track pretty well on it's UH product. In looking at current radar trends the cyclonic bookend vortex that is now showing up appears to be going north of Davenport near the IA/IL/WI border area like what was being simulated 24 hours in advance. So not a bad job if that UH track really does represent the MCV.

 

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No surprise considering who issued it.

 

 

I'm pretty clueless about the inner workings of SPC but wouldn't there be pretty extensive in-house discussion/coordination for something like that?  Seems hard to believe that one person would be calling the shots.

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classic hawkeye mini relative screw zone

 

These lines can be hit and miss with the strongest winds.  Two weeks ago most of the city fared ok, but my little area of town was hit hard with trees down all over.  This time I was watching out the window, waiting for the trees to really get whipped hard by 70+ mph wind, but it never happened.  I'll just have to watch for reports from around the city.

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