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June 28-July 1 Severe Threat


Thundersnow12

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ECMWF dewpoints look a bit lower than the GFS.  Either way, low level moisture shouldn't be an issue.

 

Monday afternoon/evening gets into 84 hour NAM range tomorrow.  That might be good for a laugh or two.

 

Can almost bank on it being too low with dew points. GFS is usually much better in these summer events. 

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Hence my use of lol, I realized the RIP was a joke, but his literal look at the soundings I think added to his use of hyperbole, and he didn't back away from his relative certainty of the situation.

 

Look, I am going to be absolutely blunt about this, we aren't going to have another severe thread of you downplaying without reasoning. So either find some reasoning or stop polluting the thread.

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Can almost bank on it being too low with dew points. GFS is usually much better in these summer events. 

Yeah, NAM is pretty terrible with respect to low level moisture, also it will probably have the low level wind field too veered.

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Look, I am going to be absolutely blunt about this, we aren't going to have another severe thread of you downplaying without reasoning. So either find some reasoning or stop polluting the thread.

 

I wasn't downplaying, I was jokingly pointing out Alek's tongue in cheek overplay, and it gets turned into a big argument when I didn't intend it to.

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I wasn't downplaying, I was jokingly pointing out Alek's tongue in cheek overplay, and it gets turned into a big argument when I didn't intend it to.

It reads differently but if that is the case then okay. Note. I don't care if you are going to downplay if you come with reasoning, no one is here to stop others from posting if they aren't just wishcasting/downplaying.

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Not much to add, but this is definitely one of the better setups I've seen around here in some time. (Can't recall seeing pennants through virtually the entire troposphere.) I'll be working Monday so things will probably the hitting the fan.

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This Sunday-Monday system really means business.  These systems coming through with CAPE/shear profiles that we usually see capped due to EML advection haven't been capped, and it's been something else.  Sunday looks really bad for IA/MN.  Monday will probably be modulated by what happens overnight Sunday night but could be even worse if the boundaries lay out right and IL/WI/IN have time to destabilize.

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This Sunday-Monday system really means business.  These systems coming through with CAPE/shear profiles that we usually see capped due to EML advection haven't been capped, and it's been something else.  Sunday looks really bad for IA/MN.  Monday will probably be modulated by what happens overnight Sunday night but could be even worse if the boundaries lay out right and IL/WI/IN have time to destabilize.

 

Which the 18z GFS illustrates nicely.

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There is definitely a convective feedback issue at 500mb/700mb on Monday, you can clearly see it in the VV fields.

 

 

500mb:

gfsCGP_500_vvel_090.gif

 

gfsCGP_500_vvel_093.gif

 

gfsCGP_500_vvel_096.gif

 

700mb:

 

gfsCGP_700_vvel_090.gif

 

gfsCGP_700_vvel_093.gif

 

gfsCGP_700_vvel_096.gif
 

Either the GFS is predicting a nuke to explode in IA Monday, or more likely the model is suffering convective feedback in a very obvious form.

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I think even after transition to more linear mode (assuming it occurs), the embedded tornado threat is going to be considerable with these kind of instability/shear parameters in place, and some of them could be strong.  Northern extent of all of this is uncertain and I have less confidence than yesterday in that regard.

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18z GFS is coming in with some very impressive soundings on Monday in E IA and N/Central IL.

 

It allows more growth/maturing of the second vort max in the trough as the lead one lifts towards Hudson's Bay, leading to stronger LLJ amplification.

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18z GFS waited until 18z Monday to have feedback issues, but with it waiting that long we ended up with better parameters this run than previous runs. Basically once the GFS shakes off the feedback issues I think we will revert back to a better potential for Monday.

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The CIPS website has 6/18/2010 (which featured two severe MCSs in like an eight hour period for Northern Illinois) as the top analog for Monday.

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20100618

And the day before was a pretty big tornado day further N/W of the area too. I like how IL/IA & parts of WI look Monday and I'm definitely interested in where I'll be (LSE) Sunday

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