Thundersnow12 Posted June 30, 2014 Author Share Posted June 30, 2014 4" hail report with storm NW of DSM Line in just west of Pilger, NE already with velocity data over 60kts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Winds backed nicely north of that boundary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 MD for central IL MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1212NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1018 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL ILCONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLEVALID 301518Z - 301645ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENTSUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THELATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL IL. WW MAY BENEEDED...THOUGH THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN THE POTENTIAL COVERAGEFOR SEVERE STORMS.DISCUSSION...RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A LEAD MCS MOVINGTHROUGH WEST CENTRAL IND AND ADJACENT FAR SERN IL...WHILE TRENDS INMESOSCALE ANALYSES INDICATED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING NWWD FROMTHIS LEAD SYSTEM THROUGH CENTRAL TO WEST CENTRAL IL. THE STORM INFULTON/PEORIA COUNTIES APPEARS TO BE LOCATED JUST ON THE COOL SIDEOF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. LIGHTING DATA AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWEDADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING BETWEEN THE LEAD MCS AND THE FULTON/PEORIA COUNTIES STORM WHERE ONGOING DIABATIC HEATING OF A MOISTENVIRONMENT /PW EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES/ HAS ERODED INHIBITION FORSURFACE BASED STORMS INVOF THE NW-SE ORIENTED BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGHWEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENTACROSS CENTRAL IL...A WEAKENING TREND IN 7- AND 9-KM CAPPI WITH THEFULTON/PEORIA COUNTIES STORM SUGGESTS FORCING IS NOT SUFFICIENT TOMAINTAIN AN ONGOING STRONG-SEVERE STORM THREAT...AT LEAST IN THESHORT TERM. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITYAND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KT...A SEVERE STORM OR TWO WILL BEPOSSIBLE...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE OF STRONG-SEVERE STORMS REMAINSUNCERTAIN...PETERS/CORFIDI.. 06/30/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Sun is out strongly enough to see shadows... still a bit filtered though. Tremendous rains and lightning here last night. Lightning was amazing. I am really concerned with that outflow boundary drapped across this area. Really think enhanced tornado potential from Iowa City right towards the metro Quad Cities and really anywhere probably 30 or so miles either side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 DTX breaking out the D word, haven't heard them say that in a long time AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI1115 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014.UPDATE...STILL TRACKING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THISEVENING AND TONIGHT. 12Z OBS AND MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUE THEPREVIOUS TRAIN OF THOUGHT WITH HIGH INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON ANDEVENING THAT LACK A FORCING MECHANISM. AFTER MIDNIGHT...MCS RACINGACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WILL TAP INTO SLIGHTLY LESS UNSTABLE AIRMASS.BULK SHEER INCREASES LATE NIGHT AS WELL WITH 0-6KM VALUES NEAR60KT IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY. 12Z NAM OUTPUT SPORTED A 5500 J/KG POWDERKEG AT 21Z IN KLAN...BUT BASED OFF OF A BRAVADO 86/76 SURFACEPARCEL. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS INTHE 20-00Z TIME FRAME WITH ORGANIZED BOW ECHO/DERECHO MOVINGTHROUGH THE AREA 04-10Z. SUPPORT FOR DERECHO THREAT INCLUDES RIGHTREAR 115KT JET SUPPORT...LLJ OF 40-50KT AT H85 AND 55-65KT AT H5.REMNANT JUICY CAPE OF 2500 J/KG AND DCAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG WILL BESUPPORTIVE OF ACCELERATING COLD POOLS. HRRR ...ARW...AND NMM HI-RES MODELS ALL POINT TO A SIMILAR SOLUTION TONIGHT WITH DIFFERINGSTRENGTH AND LOCATION OF MULTICELL LINE/CLUSTERS MOVING THROUGHTHE CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Backup/developmental HRRR is still running. Shows a nasty bow echo pushing across the WI/IL border with some 80+kt gusts. Also has some strong UH steaks across East/Central IA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 MD for central IL that cell finally crapped out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Backup/developmental HRRR is still running. Shows a nasty bow echo pushing across the WI/IL border with some 80+kt gusts. Also has some strong UH steaks across East/Central IA toss 'em deep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 toss 'em deep Gotta get my high-res kick from somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 cell north of Atlantic, IA appears to be weakening as the main WAA wing tries to set up from Fort Dodge back west towards the main bow watching long track MCSs play out is just the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Gotta get my high-res kick from somewhere the post-upgrade NMM just isn't tossing out weenie fodder like it used to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 30, 2014 Author Share Posted June 30, 2014 cell north of Atlantic, IA appears to be weakening as the main WAA wing tries to set up from Fort Dodge back west towards the main bow watching long track MCSs play out is just the best Yes it is. Sorta even playing out like 6/18/10 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 30, 2014 Author Share Posted June 30, 2014 toss 'em deep Almost as good as Hoosier and I chuckin' the 24hr backup RUC or Chicago Wx with his FIM or whatever it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 the post-upgrade NMM just isn't tossing out weenie fodder like it used to It's not event the same model anymore. It's the NMMB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Yes it is. Sorta even playing out like 6/18/10 as well. there was definitely more clearing for that but I feel like upper air support is better this time around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 It's not event the same model anymore. It's the NMMB. well there you go it's pretty cool watching the southern cell get pulled north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 MKX thinks that the clouds will clear out in time for some destabilization AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATEDNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI1025 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014.UPDATE...A LOT OF CLOUDS OUT THERE RIGHT NOW...BUT UPSTREAM SATELLITESHOWS THAT THERE SHOULD BE SOME SUNSHINE LATE MORNING AND INTO THEAFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH HEATING TO RECOVER THEATMOSPHERE AFTER THE EVENT LAST NIGHT. THUS STILL EXPECTING A GOODCHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS LATE AFTERNOON AND INTOTHE EVENING. MAIN CONCERN RIGHT NOW IS THE TIMING...AS MODELS AREGENERALLY VARYING BY ABOUT 3 HOURS. THE LATER MODELS HAVE THESTORMS JUST ENTERING THE WEST BY ABOUT 7PM...WITH THE EARLIERMODELS BRINGING THEM INTO THE WEST BETWEEN 4 AND 5 PM. WILLEVALUATE NEWER MESOSCALE MODEL RUNS AS THEY COME IN AND ADJUSTFORECAST TIMING AS NEEDED.THE BULK OF SIMULATED MODEL REFLECTIVITIES SUGGEST A BOWING LINEOF STORMS...LIKELY WITH STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDEDTORNADOES. SOME LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY INEARLY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 MKX thinks that the clouds will clear out in time for some destabilization they definitely will but some of the 4k+ sbcape solutions will likely be too generous...not that it will matter much, 2.5-3K will be more than enough for the imminent MCS to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 well there you go Check out the TIN from the NCEP for the changes... http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin14-16hiresw_aaa.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 venting outflow to the NW is classic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 4k nam forecast gusts at 8 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 4k nam forecast gusts at 8 PM. Perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Decided it was pointless to head into IA, so I'll just wait and venture a bit west into rural N-C. IL later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 The extreme se IA and IL portion of that boundary is still creeping south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 you dudes out in the burbs are going to lose power fo sho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 30, 2014 Author Share Posted June 30, 2014 Decided it was pointless to head into IA, so I'll just wait and venture a bit west into rural N-C. IL later. Leaving in awhile to head to the Sterling area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 1045 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014 /1145 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014/ ...NOAA WEATHER RADIO SEVERE WEATHER BRIEFING TODAY AT 1 PM CDT... THERE WILL BE A LIVE SHORT SEVERE WEATHER BRIEFING CONDUCTED ON NOAA WEATHER RADIO BEGINNING SHORTLY AFTER 1 PM CDT. IZZI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Didn't see this posted MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1213NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1048 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NEB INTO WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL IACONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 373...VALID 301548Z - 301715ZTHE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 373 CONTINUES.SUMMARY...THROUGH AT LEAST 16-17Z...AN INCREASING THREAT FORDAMAGING WINDS EXISTS FROM FAR NERN NEBRASKA INTO WEST CENTRAL ANDCENTRAL IOWA ATTENDANT TO A FAST-MOVING BOWING LINE OF STORMS.DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN MORNING RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED CLUSTERS OFSTORMS HAD GROWN UPSCALE INTO A FAST-MOVING BOWING LINE OFSTORMS...NOW LOCATED IN FAR NERN NEB. THIS BOW...MOVING EAST AT 50KT...PRODUCED AN OBSERVED WIND GUST TO 51 KT AT 1450Z AT NORFOLK,NEBRASKA AND WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT ADJACENT WEST CENTRAL IA /SRNPLYMOUTH COUNTY TO HARRISON COUNTY/ BY 16Z. AT THAT FAST FORWARDSPEED...SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE. THE EWD TRACK ISEXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED...AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM /THROUGH17-18Z/...WITH THIS BOW MOVING ALONG A STRONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT...PETERS.. 06/30/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 LOL [\Severe weather event] 47 members, 55 guests, 6 anonymous users RyanDe680, stormchaserck19, Wmsptwx, madwx, midwest buildit, Clyde, nwburbschaser, Chicago Storm, hawkeye_wx, wakingrufus, Chitown Storm, Dominator123, KRFD, aurora, Paulie21, kbotc, F-5, RCNYILWX, xjcsa, tim.s.h., Jacobw882, Pats2489, SmokeEater, OhioWX, Snohio, MidwestChaser, wxsniss, Bigddogg19, Jackstraw, geddyweather, wisconsinwx, Torchageddon, Toro99, Hvward, Kaner88, Thundersnow12, Tallguy001, Huron Storm, Mogget, Jason747300, Megaforce, HoldMyLife, Tornadochaser97, rickhammond, slow poke, Kevin Harrington, Brewers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Leaving in awhile to head to the Sterling area yeah, that's where I would want to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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