Thundersnow12 Posted June 30, 2014 Author Share Posted June 30, 2014 Very well written outlook IMO and agree with it. Let the morning hi res runs/sat images come in before they go more bullish. Interesting paragraph about the feedback issue as Gino just mentioned the same thing to me on fb and could be why we're seeing such insane shear/hodographs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 That feedback paragraph is interesting, I kind of thought that might be the source of those ridiculous wind fields. Yep... I mentioned it on FB earlier. No doubt it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 By the way here is the new equation for the STP according to the Nam, commonly called the effective layer on the SPC meso page.Its often the most conservative. Now the fixed layer, which is more aggressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 30, 2014 Author Share Posted June 30, 2014 Yep... I mentioned it on FB earlier. No doubt it is. Which means the storm motions are overdone thankfully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Which means the storm motions are overdone thankfully. Along with most other things, to a certain degree that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 That feedback paragraph is interesting, I kind of thought that might be the source of those ridiculous wind fields. No sig hatched for tornadoes is likely directly related to that. Even accounting for that, the setup looks good enough for potential strong tornadoes imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Even accounting for that, the setup looks good enough for potential strong tornadoes imo. Yes, I am surprised there isn't a hatched tornado area in the risk area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Yes, I am surprised there isn't a hatched tornado area in the risk area. Well, it's the first outlook of the day. Maybe we'll see it on the next update or two if things still look favorable. Overall not much to question/nitpick. Might've been a near riot in this thread had it remained a slight risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Feedback aside, that secondary low and associated low level pressure falls are going to ramp up the low level field to at least some degree. I think the lack of certainty of what will happen without confidence in the models is becoming a rather big problem as of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Well, it's the first outlook of the day. Maybe we'll see it on the next update or two if things still look favorable. Overall not much to question/nitpick. Might've been a near riot in this thread had it remained a slight risk. Nah this is pretty close to what I expected, minus the hatching for tornadoes. Once the mesocale is realized if needed it will be upgraded my guess is 1630. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Several couplets showing up in the line crossing the IA/IL border the past 30min or so. Southern end of that bow had a little vortex pop out of the line for a few volume scans too. Passed just north of Tampico, Illinois. Wouldn't be surprised if some late damage reports trickle in from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Intense-looking storm near Belvidere, at least from the Milwaukee radar angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CHI_Weather Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Intense-looking storm near Belvidere, at least from the Milwaukee radar angle. There is a possible tornado north of Belvidere. Radar indicating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Nearly constant lightning. Stepped outside. So soupy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 30, 2014 Author Share Posted June 30, 2014 How is there not even a warning on the storm east of RFD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 How is there not even a warning on the storm east of RFD? I don't know, that couplet has been persistent for about an hour too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 How is there not even a warning on the storm east of RFD? Good question. Saw something similar to this earlier over Jackson Co IA with DVN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 The couplet tracked directly over me about 25 minutes ago. With nearly constant lightning I was trying to see if I could visually see any rotation, but with torrential rain I couldn't see anything. Same here. Saw the wind suddenly change direction as all the rain began flying into the window, and heard some more significant wind gusts, but that was all I could see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Tor warned. Funnel report mentioned in text. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 ...after it's already weakened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Photographer Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Anybody think that Kane County is going to get t'storm warned? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Mini train setting up QC on east for tonight....could provide a focal boundary later today pending evolution further west this morning... FWIW....despite minimal returns numerous close lightning strikes with rain falling at the moment....fatty drops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Let's hope the local offices perform better with things later today. So far I'm pretty unimpressed with their late to the party warnings. That won't fly for a higher caliber event like what we may see later on today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Couplet seems to have turned left a bit. Driving rain but winds not too crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CHI_Weather Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Anybody think that Kane County is going to get t'storm warned? Maybe, but it does not seem likely; there was a warning east of you and it was cancelled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 30, 2014 Author Share Posted June 30, 2014 Mini train setting up QC on east for tonight....could provide a focal boundary later today pending evolution further west this morning... FWIW....despite minimal returns numerous close lightning strikes with rain falling at the moment....fatty drops Almost read fatty flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Getting some nice yellowish overhead lightning in eastern side dupage county for the past 20mins now. Zero percip. With the action still an hour away. Best mood atmosphere possible IMO. Feeling Warm at 74 dews 71 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Pretty big Moderate risk area! I thought so too, is this very unusual for this close to July (size of MDT)? Best mood atmosphere possible IMO. Feeling Warm at 74 dews 71 Right there with you on that . My mood is always extremely high during this pattern, very hot and muggy. GL to everyone today, seems to be a big event brewing and an exciting one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Precip core now through. Occasional small hail stones mixing in - nothing crazy. They gave the "history of producing funnel clouds" text update but at night who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Almost read fatty flakes QC getting dumped on pretty good.... Western IA stuff hangin' on too....more boundaries for later today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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