wxsniss Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Anyone chasing starting from Madison WI area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 This is what I mean when I say the nam is to far north,,,,,,, look at the 0-3km helicity off the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 This is what I mean when I say the nam is to far north,,,,,,, look at the 0-3km helicity off the GFS What are you even talking about? The NAM has the area of highest shear going from E IA to SW WI. It's not quite as progressive as the GFS, but it's really not further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 3km EHI.... I would trust the GFS 24 hrs better than the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 3km EHI.... I would trust the GFS 24 hrs better than the NAM I still don't get what the point of your argument is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Things trucking along with some, but not all night long, back building....Looks like things will clear out at a decent pace through the morning for quality destabilization... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Several couplets showing up in the line crossing the IA/IL border the past 30min or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Several couplets showing up in the line crossing the IL/WI the past 30min or so. And in the comma head coming across the MS River. Why isn't that thing warned on again? Thunder in Elgin right now with the anvil overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Things trucking along with some, but not all night long, back building....Looks like things will clear out at a decent pace through the morning for quality destabilization... Yea, even the activity down in MO has faded. The question is, what does the new activity in NE do... Some guidance (Such as the HRRR) shows this becoming a main complex, pushing into C. IA by noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Several couplets showing up in the line crossing the IL/WI the past 30min or so. Yeah there is a good circulation that is going to to pass north of RFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Several couplets showing up in the line crossing the IL/WI the past 30min or so. The storm west of Rockford is going to track just north of I-90. I'm definitely keeping my eye on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xjcsa Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Disclaimer: I am an amateur who probably knows just enough to get in trouble. That sais - looking at the NAM forecast sounding for 22Z tomorrow (from the 00Z run; select the 22hr option at the link) for my location (KALO) shows: STP - 36.9 SRH (1 km) - 616.0 SRH (0-3 km) - 920.2 MLCAPE: 2862 (the weak spot, maybe?) LCL height: 175.6m LFC height: 874.9m 1km EHI: 11.0 ...and a gigantic looping hodograph. So...is that as insane as it looks to me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 And in the comma head coming across the MS River. Why isn't that thing warned on again? Thunder in Elgin right now with the anvil overhead. Oops, I meant the IA/IL border. It's severe warned again at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Interesting discrepancy in the warnings out of DVN and LOT for the comma head: DVN - 60mph winds and penny hail LOT - 70mph winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 I just got 4.80" of rain in barely an hour. It's the heaviest rain I've ever experienced in my lifetime(39 years). Needless to say, my yard was flooded and the nearby creek was a raging river. I can't wait to see the flood video on the news tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Yeah there is a good circulation that is going to to pass north of RFD. The storm west of Rockford is going to track just north of I-90. I'm definitely keeping my eye on that one. I originally meant to put IA/IL border, but yea...That storm has had a couplet or two as well...in addition to a wind signature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 30, 2014 Author Share Posted June 30, 2014 Yea, even the activity down in MO has faded. The question is, what does the new activity in NE do... Some guidance (Such as the HRRR) shows this becoming a main complex, pushing into C. IA by noon. Been watching the last few HRRR runs. Semi discrete storms as early as 16z in IA congeal as eastern IA into northern IL gets very unstable. Runs in the morning will be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 I just got 4.80" of rain in barely an hour. It's the heaviest rain I've ever experienced in my lifetime(39 years). Needless to say, my yard was flooded and the nearby creek was a raging river. I can't wait to see the flood video on the news tomorrow. It might (read: probably will) not be the flooding that is in the news tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Yea, even the activity down in MO has faded. The question is, what does the new activity in NE do... Some guidance (Such as the HRRR) shows this becoming a main complex, pushing into C. IA by noon. good eyes...."hopefully" they get shunted before feeding into that 850 feed to their east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Raging downpour here at the moment with nearly continuous lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 This is what I mean when I say the nam is to far north,,,,,,, look at the 0-3km helicity off the GFS Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 New day 2 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1247 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU... ..SUMMARY SCATTERED STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING EAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..SYNOPSIS THE MID-LEVEL BELT OF WESTERLIES ACROSS CANADA AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES. WITHIN THE WESTERLIES...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE...WITHIN LARGER SCALE INTERIOR CONTINENT UPPER TROUGHING...WILL PROGRESS NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BUT TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO LINGER TO THE SOUTHWEST...ALONG AN AXIS THAT MAY GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM A POSITIVE TO MORE NEUTRAL TILT WHILE GRADUALLY PIVOTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/CENTRAL PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. AT THE SAME TIME UPPER RIDGING SHOULD REMAIN PROMINENT EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST...AND ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WHILE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK UPPER TROUGHING LIKELY WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE SIERRA NEVADA...ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IN RESPONSE TO THESE DEVELOPMENTS...SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL PERSIST ALONG AND SOUTH OF A SURFACE FRONT...AND ANY PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST...AS WELL AS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST. BENEATH THE REMNANTS OF A PLUME OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR EMANATING FROM THE PLATEAU REGION...AS FAR NORTH AND EAST AS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...A PRE-FRONTAL CORRIDOR OF MODERATE TO STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY PROBABLY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY. ..LWR GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY INTO OZARK PLATEAU UNCERTAINTY REMAINS CONCERNING WHERE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW GENERATED BY CONVECTION ON MONDAY /WHICH COULD BE EXTENSIVE/ ENDS UP. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THERE WILL BE A SUBSTANTIAL PRE-FRONTAL/OUTFLOW CORRIDOR OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING EXTENDING THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION...WHICH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 3000+ J/KG. ALTHOUGH THIS IS EXPECTED TO MOSTLY TAKE PLACE WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BETTER WIND FIELDS AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT MID-LEVEL TROUGHING SLOWLY PROGRESSING EAST OF THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES PROBABLY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. BROADLY DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW MAY ENHANCE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP AS MID-LEVEL INHIBITION ERODES. AND LAKE BREEZES EAST OF LAKES ONTARIO AND ERIE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN OHIO/WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK...WHERE SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW MAY REMAIN AS STRONG AS 30-40 KT /ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN CYCLONE/...CONTRIBUTING TO AT LEAST MODESTLY STRONG AND SHEARED DEEP-LAYER MEAN FLOW. ..KERR.. 06/30/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WolfSpider Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Lightning pretty intense here, and this is kind of weird - static electricity in my house is like winter time levels - sheets are crackling, etc. Not sure what in the environment is causing that. Have always heard it gets like that right before a strike, lol. Now that you mentioned it, I felt quite a bit of static today. My brother said he "tasted" the lightning when it struck 30 miles away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Moderate Risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Day 1 moderate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Day 1 moderatePretty big Moderate risk area! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Moderate is for wind/hail, not tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 And there's the long awaited MDT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014 VALID 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF IA/MO/IL AND FAR SOUTHERN WI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION... ..SUMMARY WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES...AND SWATHS OF WIND DAMAGE ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CORN BELT AND MIDWEST. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS. ..SYNOPSIS THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION DURING THE PERIOD TO THE NORTH OF A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. IN PARTICULAR...A CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO...WITH A SEASONALLY STRONG UPPER JET/AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. AS A RESULT...HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASINGLY STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION/UPPER MIDWEST AND LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. A SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MIDDLE/LOWER MO VALLEY...UPPER MIDWEST...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE A GENERAL FOCUS FOR DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE POTENTIAL. ..LOWER/MIDDLE MO VALLEY TO MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES AS COMPARED TO SUNDAY...UPPER-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE MUCH MORE CONSEQUENTIAL /ESPECIALLY BY LATE JUNE STANDARDS/ AND MORE OPTIMALLY TIMED RELATIVE TO PEAK HEATING. IN THE PRESENCE OF A VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND ROBUST INSTABILITY...LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES...AND POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. EARLY DAY CONVECTION AND RELATED OUTFLOWS/CLOUD DEBRIS ONCE AGAIN ACCOUNT FOR SOME UNCERTAINTY RELATED TO SOME OF THE FORECAST DETAILS LATER TODAY. IN PARTICULAR...A REMNANT OVERNIGHT MCS COULD PERSIST EARLY TODAY ACROSS LOWER MI/NORTHERN INDIANA VICINITY...WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NEB/NORTHERN KS TO WESTERN IA THIS MORNING. ITS POSSIBLE THAT THESE STORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY COULD PERSIST/BECOME SURFACE-BASED DURING THE DAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION/DPVA. OF GREATER LIKELIHOOD MAY BE FOR THESE STORMS TO GENERALLY DECAY...WITH SUBSEQUENT SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER AGGRESSIVELY DESTABILIZES. OF NOTE RELATED TO NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...THE 00Z NAM/GFS APPEAR TO BE OVERLY INFLUENCED BY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ACROSS IA INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/LAKE MI VICINITY. WHILE REAL-WORLD FEEDBACK IS INDEED POSSIBLE GIVEN STRONG DIABATIC HEATING/RICH MOISTURE...THE EXACT RAMIFICATIONS ARE UNCERTAIN...AND THE EXTREME DETAILS OF THESE PROGGED DOWNSTREAM INFLUENCES /ROBUST MAGNITUDE OF THE PROGGED LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD ETC./ ARE PROBABLY AT LEAST SOMEWHAT OVERDONE. REGARDLESS...THE MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO IS FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP/INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS IA/NORTHERN MO TO THE EAST OF AN ADVANCING SURFACE LOW AND NEAR THE SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT. GIVEN EARLIER EVENING /00Z/ OBSERVED REGIONAL RAOBS...A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITHIN THE NEARBY WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO VERY STRONG DESTABILIZATION...IN THE ABSENCE OF OUTFLOWS AND LINGERING THICK CLOUD COVER...WITH AS MUCH AS 4000-5500 J/KG OF MLCAPE EXPECTED FROM KS INTO IA/NORTHERN MO AND IL. ROBUST INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF 40+ KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT INTENSE SUPERCELLS AS THE INITIAL STORM MODE WITH A RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND SOME TORNADOES. THE TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE INFLUENCED BY DIURNALLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS/SRH...ESPECIALLY NEAR/EAST OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. GIVEN RELATIVELY STRONG FORCING FOR EARLY SUMMER...AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE COLD FRONT...UPSCALE QUASI-LINEAR GROWTH IS LIKELY TO OCCUR BY EARLY/MID-EVENING. AS SUCH...A POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND THREAT COULD EVOLVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF IA AND NORTHERN MO INTO IL/SOUTHERN WI AND POSSIBLE LOWER MI/NORTHERN INDIANA DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 That feedback paragraph is interesting, I kind of thought that might be the source of those ridiculous wind fields. No sig hatched for tornadoes is likely directly related to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.