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June 28-July 1 Severe Threat


Thundersnow12

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Is a line of strong storms capable of widespread damaging winds the best case scenario at this point? I agree with what Hoosier said; this event is really starting to freak me out. What's worse is that not very many people have any idea what might be coming their way.

Not sure... With several parameters going to the top of, or even off the charts, it would likely be a high end wind event. Funny you mention that, though. This is all happening the day after the 2 year anniversary of the June 29, 2012 derecho.

Regardless, very rough day ahead for Ern IA into IL and Srn WI...

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About the ORD threat, first of all the cyclone that shut down MN for severe on Sunday is forecast to open up slightly and start to lift slowly to the NE, because of it's slow motion any low that can form south of that will be blocked and will likely strengthen.  Lets look at the 700 mb charts. This is at 21z Monday. Keep in mind the northern bias of the Nam.

 

namUS_700_vvel_021.gif
 

Now lets look Tues 0z...notice the strong 700mb VV's  if that should shift south just 75 miles....enough said.

 

 

namUS_700_vvel_024.gif

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Severe t-storm warning for most of Dane County now. Tornado warning still up for western Dane County.

 

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGWIC025-300500-/O.NEW.KMKX.SV.W.0069.140630T0409Z-140630T0500Z/BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI1109 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  CENTRAL DANE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...* UNTIL 1200 AM CDT* AT 1108 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR VERONA...  MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE           TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  MADISON...SUN PRAIRIE...FITCHBURG...MIDDLETON...STOUGHTON...  WAUNAKEE...VERONA...OREGON...MCFARLAND...MONONA...MOUNT HOREB...  MARSHALL...COTTAGE GROVE...CROSS PLAINS...DEERFIELD...SHOREWOOD  HILLS...CAMBRIDGE...MAPLE BLUFF...UTICA AND ROCKDALE.



			
		
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If trends continue with the 06/30 12z launches, and things look as bad for ORD as they look tonight, I could see some 18z launches from MSP, Green BAY and ORD.  And if ARX has the means to do it, they should do it as well instead of MPX.

 

Why would Green Bay and MPX do it when they aren't in the threat area tomorrow? DVN should do one if we're still looking down the barrel of a cannon tomorrow.

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Wonder why the SPC was so subdued with their discussions from both d2 outlooks. Most models are point toward a significant outbreak of tornadoes and/or damaging winds. Parameter space is off the charts.

 

Often times it has a lot to do with an individual forecaster along with forecast uncertainties. That said the models seem to be converging on a solution that would result in a high-end threat later today. I'd expect strongly worded outlook along with a moderate risk with the 06Z Day 1 that should be out in less than an hour.

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Wonder why the SPC was so subdued with their discussions from both d2 outlooks. Most models are point toward a significant outbreak of tornadoes and/or damaging winds. Parameter space is off the charts.

In about an hour we'll find out if they take this threat any more seriously.

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