geddyweather Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Is a line of strong storms capable of widespread damaging winds the best case scenario at this point? I agree with what Hoosier said; this event is really starting to freak me out. What's worse is that not very many people have any idea what might be coming their way. Not sure... With several parameters going to the top of, or even off the charts, it would likely be a high end wind event. Funny you mention that, though. This is all happening the day after the 2 year anniversary of the June 29, 2012 derecho. Regardless, very rough day ahead for Ern IA into IL and Srn WI... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 this kind of looks like a yin yang. I am not sure where the tornado warning went! (East Iowa) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 About the ORD threat, first of all the cyclone that shut down MN for severe on Sunday is forecast to open up slightly and start to lift slowly to the NE, because of it's slow motion any low that can form south of that will be blocked and will likely strengthen. Lets look at the 700 mb charts. This is at 21z Monday. Keep in mind the northern bias of the Nam. Now lets look Tues 0z...notice the strong 700mb VV's if that should shift south just 75 miles....enough said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 These soundings don't have appropriate adjectives to describe them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 this kind of looks like a yin yang. I am not sure where the tornado warning went! (East Iowa) 2014_06_30_0356z_DVN_tornado_warning_canton_IA.png The last statement said the storm had weakened.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Why would they drop the warning on this? Yep. They were late at warning it in the first place as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 The segment of the MCS near Madison looks like it's starting to bow out, perhaps a bit of a wind threat in the next couple hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 No hail or severe wind here, but heavy storms are now training over Cedar Rapids. It has been dumping buckets for a while now with more to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Severe t-storm warning for most of Dane County now. Tornado warning still up for western Dane County. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGWIC025-300500-/O.NEW.KMKX.SV.W.0069.140630T0409Z-140630T0500Z/BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI1109 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... CENTRAL DANE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...* UNTIL 1200 AM CDT* AT 1108 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR VERONA... MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... MADISON...SUN PRAIRIE...FITCHBURG...MIDDLETON...STOUGHTON... WAUNAKEE...VERONA...OREGON...MCFARLAND...MONONA...MOUNT HOREB... MARSHALL...COTTAGE GROVE...CROSS PLAINS...DEERFIELD...SHOREWOOD HILLS...CAMBRIDGE...MAPLE BLUFF...UTICA AND ROCKDALE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 No hail or severe wind here, but heavy storms are now training over Cedar Rapids. It has been dumping buckets for a while now with more to come. I can relate to that. Practically a deluge here with INSANE lightning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 This isn't exactly what I was looking for but it will do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Wow, this is the worst I've seen since 2008. Much of my backyard is under water. Water is pouring through my basement window. My gauge appears to have roughly 2.5 inches already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 This isn't exactly what I was looking for but it will do. SRH-CAPE(Johns-Davies)_EHI=2_Joplin.gif This is terrifying. Whatever pops tomorrow will be producing quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Emergency manager reports tornado damage in Iowa County WI Highland, Wisconsin EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS SWATH OF DAMAGE FROM HIGHLAND EAST TO BLACKHAWK LAKE TO NEAR GOVERNOR DODGE STATE PARK. POSSIBLE TORNADO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 GFS hodograph for the WI/IL/IA border area. Just obscene with the GFS and NAM both spitting out 80-100kts bulk shear with plenty of CAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 If trends continue with the 06/30 12z launches, and things look as bad for ORD as they look tonight, I could see some 18z launches from MSP, Green BAY and ORD. And if ARX has the means to do it, they should do it as well instead of MPX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 00z SPC WRF is...interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 If trends continue with the 06/30 12z launches, and things look as bad for ORD as they look tonight, I could see some 18z launches from MSP, Green BAY and ORD. And if ARX has the means to do it, they should do it as well instead of MPX. Why would Green Bay and MPX do it when they aren't in the threat area tomorrow? DVN should do one if we're still looking down the barrel of a cannon tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 00z SPC WRF is...interesting. Is it really showing nothing or am I seeing things? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Is it really showing nothing or am I seeing things? Yeah, not much to write home about. That's why I typed it the way I did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Why would Green Bay and MPX do it when they aren't in the threat area tomorrow? DVN should do one if we're still looking down the barrel of a cannon tomorrow. upper level winds will play a big role on how this transpires. Plus how strong is that cyclone ejecting to the ne? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Yeah there's absolutely nothing in the highest risk area, that would be pretty amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 That thing has performed horribly in almost every big event this year. April 28th, Pilger, etc. I've starting using it less and less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 hop-WRF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawkers Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Wonder why the SPC was so subdued with their discussions from both d2 outlooks. Most models are point toward a significant outbreak of tornadoes and/or damaging winds. Parameter space is off the charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Wonder why the SPC was so subdued with their discussions from both d2 outlooks. Most models are point toward a significant outbreak of tornadoes and/or damaging winds. Parameter space is off the charts. Often times it has a lot to do with an individual forecaster along with forecast uncertainties. That said the models seem to be converging on a solution that would result in a high-end threat later today. I'd expect strongly worded outlook along with a moderate risk with the 06Z Day 1 that should be out in less than an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Wonder why the SPC was so subdued with their discussions from both d2 outlooks. Most models are point toward a significant outbreak of tornadoes and/or damaging winds. Parameter space is off the charts. In about an hour we'll find out if they take this threat any more seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 What am I missing here with the WRF? It looks like at 22z Iowa is going off. That is the last frame of the 00z run that I can see. Edit: Sorry, didn't see that Hoosier was talking about the SPC WRF. I was looking at the NSSL WRF which paints a different picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Sorry posted in Central/Western states thread... I'm in a conference in Madison WI Monday... Madison WI 24z on 0z Nam: 0-3km EHI: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawkers Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 In about an hour we'll find out if they take this threat any more seriously. just hope that local tv stations aren't downplaying this at all. Because if they did, and the forecasted environment was realized... Oh dear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.