daddylonglegs Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Take that back...more around Montfort..big wind generators located there...sounds safe place to be during a tnad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Tornado warning for Iowa County, WI TORNADO WARNINGWIC049-300400-/O.NEW.KMKX.TO.W.0008.140630T0309Z-140630T0400Z/BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI1009 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR... IOWA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...* UNTIL 1100 PM CDT* AT 1008 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES EAST OF FENNIMORE...OR 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BOSCOBEL...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... MINERAL POINT AROUND 1030 PM CDT. DODGEVILLE AROUND 1035 PM CDT.OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDELINDEN...GOVERNOR DODGE ST PARK...RIDGEWAY...EDMUND...HIGHLAND...COBB...LONDON...BLACKHAWK LAKE REC AREA AND REWEY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Tornado warning for Iowa County, WI radar image of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Just caught the weather on 7, they are certainly not hitting on the potential severity that tomorrow holds. Talk about a risk of heavy rain, lightning, and strong winds...but don't mention anything about hail or tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Popped a sounding from the 18z GFS near Dubuque with an EHI above...get this...34. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 The thing that gets me is the lack of inversion. Probably 99% of the time when you see a sounding with that kind of flow aloft there's also crappy low level lapse rates. Seems like this rapidly deepening secondary low idea has some legs. Even down around 925mb the winds exceed 50kts by mid afternoon. Tremendous kinematic environment overlaying very strong mid-summer instability. Hate to sound like I'm hyping things, cause I'm one who usually is more conservative, but this has the potential to be an event we remember for decades if things work out like the models continue to advertise. Even if things were to go linear the instability combined with the kinematic environment would make for a very damaging wind event over a widespread area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 The cell west of Maquoketa Iowa also bears watching. Developing some decent rotation the last few scans. EDIT: and now it's tor warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Just caught the weather on 7, they are certainly not hitting on the potential severity that tomorrow holds. Talk about a risk of heavy rain, lightning, and strong winds...but don't mention anything about hail or tornadoes. I'd guess they know about the potential, though I'm imagining they'll use the SPC forecast over a few model forecasts any day of the week. When it comes down to it, the decision is using the forecast of a team of expert meteorologists, or the opinions of two models. Silly comparison, but a viable possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Popped a sounding from the 18z GFS near Dubuque with an EHI above...get this...34. Jesus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Not to mention remnant outflow boundaries galore from the current convection to act as foci for new pre frontal development perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Newest warning - cell mentioned by Cyclone. TORNADO WARNINGIAC097-105-ILC015-085-300400-/O.NEW.KDVN.TO.W.0019.140630T0331Z-140630T0400Z/BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL1031 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR... JACKSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA... EAST CENTRAL JONES COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA... EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS... SOUTH CENTRAL JO DAVIESS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...* UNTIL 1100 PM CDT* AT 1030 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ONSLOW...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... CANTON AROUND 1040 PM CDT. NASHVILLE AROUND 1045 PM CDT. HURSTVILLE AND MAQUOKETA AROUND 1050 PM CDT. FULTON AND ANDREW AROUND 1055 PM CDT. SPRINGBROOK AROUND 1100 PM CDT. 0Z NAM takes the helecity core into WI now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR IOWA COUNTY... AT 1041 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SPRING GREEN...OR 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF DODGEVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. TWO TORNADOES MAY BE OCCURRING. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 00z GFS still popping EHIs in the high 10s to low 30s for tomorrow and over a pretty large area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 30, 2014 Author Share Posted June 30, 2014 GFS is even more nuts. West of Galena at 21z tomorrow has nearly 4000 j/kg of SBCAPE, helicity of almost 1600 and an EHI of 34. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Even down around 925mb the winds exceed 50kts by mid afternoon. Tremendous kinematic environment overlaying very strong mid-summer instability. Hate to sound like I'm hyping things, cause I'm one who usually is more conservative, but this has the potential to be an event we remember for decades if things work out like the models continue to advertise. Even if things were to go linear the instability combined with the kinematic environment would make for a very damaging wind event over a widespread area. Agreed. Needless to say I'm very interested in the new day 1 outlook. The afternoon day 2 outlook was fairly subdued in regards to tornado potential so it would take a big ramp up to go from that to calling for a tornado outbreak. I'm pretty spooked by the overall potential...have a ton of family and friends throughout northern IL/northwest IN and have already told them to keep an eye on the weather and take any warning very seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR IOWACOUNTY...AT 1041 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OFSPRING GREEN...OR 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF DODGEVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 50MPH. TWO TORNADOES MAY BE OCCURRING.HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. I just caught that...pretty active down in that area..heading towards MSN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 GFS is even more nuts. West of Galena at 21z tomorrow has nearly 4000 j/kg of SBCAPE, helicity of almost 1600 and an EHI of 34. Post that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 public report of a tornado at Wyoming, IA. This is really kind of a weird looking cell with potentially two RFDs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Very strong couplet west of Madison there. Actually quite near Barneveld. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Agreed. Needless to say I'm very interested in the new day 1 outlook. The afternoon day 2 outlook was fairly subdued in regards to tornado potential so it would take a big ramp up to go from that to calling for a tornado outbreak. I'm pretty spooked by the overall potential...have a ton of family and friends throughout northern IL/northwest IN and have already told them to keep an eye on the weather and take any warning very seriously. You and me both Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Not much more can be said about this sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Is a line of strong storms capable of widespread damaging winds the best case scenario at this point? I agree with what Hoosier said; this event is really starting to freak me out. What's worse is that not very many people have any idea what might be coming their way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Tornado Warning extended into Dane County now. TORNADO WARNINGWIC025-049-300415-/O.NEW.KMKX.TO.W.0009.140630T0344Z-140630T0415Z/BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI1044 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR... WESTERN DANE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN... EASTERN IOWA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...* UNTIL 1115 PM CDT* AT 1044 PM CDT...A TORNADO PRODUCING STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SPRING GREEN...OR 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF DODGEVILLE... MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.* THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR... MOUNT HOREB...MAZOMANIE AND BLACK EARTH AROUND 1100 PM CDT. CROSS PLAINS AROUND 1105 PM CDT. WESTERN MADISON...MIDDLETON AND VERONA AROUND 1115 PM CDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 I think Madison's gonna have a big problem on their hands here for the second time in two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Weather radio just went off for a tornado watch Edit: 50/30 tornado probs on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mogget Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Sirens in Verona went off around 10:50. Have now dropped back to a TOR watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Yep, tornado watch one county west of here. Bit concerned about the potential tomorrow as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Very strong rotation in E IA north of Monmouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Why would they drop the warning on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Broad couplet still present with Jackson Co IA storm. If that can tighten up there could be trouble for Fulton IA. Surprised DVN doesn't at least have a severe warning for that storm. Very strong winds at the least around that couplet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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