Hoosier Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Here are the CIPS analogs from the 12z NAM using the Mississippi Valley domain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Indeed! Two hours later it slams Chicago with 70-80 MPH winds with an impressive simulated structure. I definitely am happy I don't have to fly in/out of O'hare tomorrow evening. Impressive comma head there. Just wish it would get here a few hours earlier. If we're going to get rocked, I'd like to at least get rocked & get some good pictures and vids too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Just coincidence, map from June 18, 2010, day before top CIPS analog. Almost mirrors todays map. The analog days are the 24 hours leading up to the listed time. So 6/19/10 is referring to 6/18/10 I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Impressive comma head there. Just wish it would get here a few hours earlier. If we're going to get rocked, I'd like to at least get rocked & get some good pictures and vids too. It will be. The longer ranges of the high-res models tend to have a slow bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 LOT mentioning tornadoes now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 21z SREF is popping a 75 on the sigtor ingredients near the IA/IL border tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 2 Tornado warnings now WNW of CID. Very pronounced hook on the leading cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Not too far from Cedar Rapids... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 00z NAM goes with the 18z RGEM crazy deepening idea. Sfc low down to ~992 mb at 00z Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 The NAM is coming in with off the charts parameters for tomorrow, very GFS-like look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 00z NAM goes with the 18z RGEM crazy deepening idea. Sfc low down to ~992 mb at 00z Tuesday. 988 mb at 3z Tuesday. Good grief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Cell by Waukon, IA looks like a monster...Prairie getting hammered. Sky looks amazing to the south of here...purple Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Grundy in Iowa reported 2 tnads on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Well I think this is a first for me. 80 kt winds at 850 mb with no inversion at the end of June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Well I think this is a first for me. 80 kt winds at 850 mb with no inversion at the end of June. 00_NAM_027_43_64,-88_31_skewt_SB.gif 80kts at 850 is off the charts any time of the year let alone in June of all months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 30, 2014 Author Share Posted June 30, 2014 Well I think this is a first for me. 80 kt winds at 850 mb with no inversion at the end of June. 00_NAM_027_43_64,-88_31_skewt_SB.gif Lol storm motion of 62kts. Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 I don't know what to say about the NAM. Kinda out of words. Hoping to God that the secondary low is overdone or Quad Cities/Madison/Rockford/Milwaukee/Chicago metros are in a level of threat they haven't seen since the '60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 30, 2014 Author Share Posted June 30, 2014 Soundings more to the east say over DKB at 0z are also very impressive as instability really builds into that area as sfc winds really back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 0-1 km over 6. Save this one for posterity: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 30, 2014 Author Share Posted June 30, 2014 This run also had a more discrete signal 18-21z as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Beating a dead horse, but things are looking flat out insane if they can stay discrete. Looking less and less like crapvection will be a big issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 0-1 km over 6. Save this one for posterity: NAM_221_2014063000_F24_EHI_1000_M.png Incredible. Hope for the sake of the metro area & other populated regions that this doesn't verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 I'm very concerned about what the Nam is showing for the Ord area. The STP is extremely strong, but it may not be strong enough, given it's northern bias even 24 hrs out from the event Currently it is showing the surface low just north of Chicago with the best 0-1 helicity vales, coupled with 0-3km values in southern WI. That is causing the STP signal to be somewhat stretched from southern WI to ORD. I'm fearful that if the surface low tracks another 75 miles south from it's current forecast location, we could see even larger helicity values over metro Chicago, causing the STP signal to centered right over the area, and even stronger that what it's showing now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 The 0Z 12KM NAM has a very high significant tornado parameter moving across eastern Iowa into northern Illinois during the afternoon and evening hours tomorrow with values maxing out above 10. I haven't seen the 0Z 4KM NAM yet but once it pulls up I'll post a few of the simulated reflectivity and updraft helicity images. This is definitely a setup that could go in the books with the overall rarity of having a summer-time environment combine with a winter-time kinematic setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 80kts at 850 is off the charts any time of the year let alone in June of all months. The thing that gets me is the lack of inversion. Probably 99% of the time when you see a sounding with that kind of flow aloft there's also crappy low level lapse rates. Seems like this rapidly deepening secondary low idea has some legs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 What on earth is going on west of Madison? TDS and a very large/strong couplet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 I'm very concerned about what the Nam is showing for the Ord area. The STP is extremely strong, but it may not be strong enough, given it's northern bias even 24 hrs out from the event Currently it is showing the surface low just north of Chicago with the best 0-1 helicity vales, coupled with 0-3km values in southern WI. That is causing the STP signal to be somewhat stretched from southern WI to ORD. I'm fearful that if the surface low tracks another 75 miles south from it's current forecast location, we could see even larger helicity values over metro Chicago, causing the STP signal to centered right over the area, and even stronger that what it's showing now. 150-200 miles north is not 'just north'. It's showing the surface low bisecting Wisconsin from SW to NE pretty much, so it would stand to reason the greatest threat would be just south and east of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Looks like a tnad maybe around Dodgeville..whole works looks to be heading towards. MSN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 I'm very concerned about what the Nam is showing for the Ord area. The STP is extremely strong, but it may not be strong enough, given it's northern bias even 24 hrs out from the event Currently it is showing the surface low just north of Chicago with the best 0-1 helicity vales, coupled with 0-3km values in southern WI. That is causing the STP signal to be somewhat stretched from southern WI to ORD. I'm fearful that if the surface low tracks another 75 miles south from it's current forecast location, we could see even larger helicity values over metro Chicago, causing the STP signal to centered right over the area, and even stronger that what it's showing now. Kinda related to something I was talking over with Tony. I'm not sure there's a whole lot of difference between an EHI of 10 or 15 or 20. Numerically there is of course but any one of those suggests a very volatile environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 150-200 miles north is not 'just north'. It's showing the surface low bisecting Wisconsin from SW to NE pretty much, so it would stand to reason the greatest threat would be just south and east of that. I get that, but just a little further south and the signal could become much stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.