July 2014 Temperature forecast contest

[Roger Smith]

Enter your forecasts for the six main contest sites and optional three western sites here (for any new entrants, the forecasts are anomalies relative to 1981-2010 normal values).

 

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

Note -- As this may be a holiday week for some, I will once again reduce penalties to 1% every 2 hours for the first 30 hours from 06z July 1 to 12z July 2, after which we move back to 1% per hour for 30 hours to 18z July 3, and catch up to the usual pace by going 5% every 4 hours beyond that (another 44 hours). This gets us to an absolute deadline (100% time penalty) by 14z July 5th, more or less the same time we usually reach the absolute deadline (10z 5th).

[Stebo]

DCA +1.2

NYC +1.0

BOS +0.8

ORD +2.0

ATL -0.3

IAH -2.1

DEN +1.0

PHX -0.8

SEA +1.0

[OHweather]

Better get my entries in on time this month. Penalties killing me the last couple months

 

DCA +1.5

NYC +0.5

BOS -0.5

ORD +1.5

ATL +0.5

IAH -1.0

DEN +2.0

PHX +1.0

SEA +0.5

[WEATHER53]

DCA:-0.5

NYC:-0.8

BOS:-0.8

ORD:+0.5

ATL:+0.6

IAH:+1.3

[N. OF PIKE]

DCA +1.2 NYC +1.0 BOS +1.0 ORD -.8 ATL -.5 IAH -.8 Den +1.0 PHX 0.0 SEA +.5

[Damage In Tolland]

DCA +3.1

NYC +2.4

BOS -+2.2

ORD +1.0

ATL +1.5   

IAH +1.0 

DEN +2.5

PHX +3.0

SEA -0.4

[hudsonvalley21]

DCA +0.7

NYC +0.4

BOS +0.2

ORD +1.2

ATL -0.6

IAH -1.0

DEN -0.1

PHX +0.5

SEA +0.6

[metalicwx366]

DCA +1.9

NYC +1.8

BOS +1.2

ORD -1.1

ATL +2.1

IAH +1.1

Den +2.3

PHX +1.1

SEA: +0.4

[Mallow]

DCA _____NYC____BOS____ORD____ATL_____IAH________DEN_____PHX_____SEA

 

+1.1  ___+1.4 ____+1.7 __ -1.1 ____+0.3  ___-0.2 _______-0.1  ___+2.5 ____+1.1

[Scotty Lightning]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

1.0        0.5         0.5           -0.5       1.5      0.5           2.0        1.5      2.0

[ksammut]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

+1.3__+1.1+__+.5_____-1.2___+3.7__+1.3_____-2___-2.6_____+1.6

[Tom]

DCA: +1.6 NYC. +1.9 BOS: +1.4 ORD: +0.8 ATL +1.1 IAH: +0.9 DEN: +0.6 PHX: +0.8 SEA -0.2

[RodneyS]

DCA __ NYC __    BOS ____   ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____  DEN __   PHX __ SEA

1.6        1.2         1.6           -2.5       4.2      0.7           0.2        -2.0      2.7

[donsutherland1]

DCA _____NYC____BOS____ORD____ATL_____IAH________DEN_____PHX_____SEA

 

+1.0 ___+1.2 ____+1.2 __ +0.6 ____+0.7 ___-0.2 _______-0.5 ___+1.6 ____+1.6

[uncle W]

DCA _____NYC____BOS____ORD____ATL_____IAH

+1.5........+0.9........+0.6......+0.4.......+0.5........0.0

[Quixotic1]

DCA____NYC____BOS____ORD____ATL_____IAH________DEN_____PHX_____SEA

 

+1.3..__+1.0____+1.7 __ +0.0____+1.5__-0.0 _______-1.2........__+2.3____+1.9

[Roger Smith]

DCA _____NYC____BOS____ORD____ATL_____IAH________DEN_____PHX_____SEA

 

+1.3 ___+1.0 ___+0.8 ____ +0.3 ___+0.6 ___--0.4 _______+0.3 ___+0.8 ____+1.3

 

[bkviking]

DCA +1.8

NYC +1.1

BOS +1.2

ORD +0.8

ATL -0.4

IAH -1.8

DEN +1.3

PHX -0.4

SEA +1.2

[Midlo Snow Maker]

DCA +2.0

NYC +1.6

BOS +1.7

ORD -0.9

ATL +0.9

IAH -0.8

DEN -1.0

PHX + 2.0

SEA +1.1

[Isotherm]

DCA: +0.8

NYC: +1.1

BOS: +1.4

 

ORD: +0.7

ATL: +0.6

IAH: -0.3

 

DEN: -0.7

PHX: +1.3

SEA:+1.7

[wxdude64]

Oops, late......

DCA:  +1.8

NYC:  +1.7

BOS:  +2.4

 

ORD:  -1.7

ATL:  +2.6

IAH:  +0.3

 

DEN:  +0.2

PHX:    0.0

SEA:  +2.5 

[blazess556]

DCA:  +1.2

NYC:  +1.4

BOS:  +1.6

 

ORD:  +0.5

ATL:  +0.8

IAH:  -0.4

 

DEN:  -0.7

PHX:  +1.8

SEA:  +1.9 

[Roger Smith]

July 2014 Table of Forecasts

 

 

FORECASTER _______ DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

Damage in Tolland ____ +3.1 _ +2.4 _ +2.2 ___ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.0 ___ +2.5 _ +3.0 _ --0.4

Midlo Snow Maker _____+2.0 _ +1.6 _ +1.7 ___ --0.9 _ +0.9 _ --0.8 ___ --1.0 _ +2.0 _ +1.1

metalicwx366 ________ +1.9 _ +1.8 _ +1.2 ___ --1.1 _ +2.1 _ +1.1 ___ +2.3 _ +1.1 _ +0.4

wxdude64 __ (-3%) ___ +1.8 _ +1.7 _ +2.4 ___ --1.7 _ +2.6 _ +0.3 ___ +0.2 __ 0.0 _ +2.5

bkviking ____________ +1.8 _ +1.1 _ +1.2 ___ +0.8 _ --0.4 _ --1.8 ___ +1.3 _ --0.4 _ +1.2

Tom _______________ +1.6 _ +1.9 _ +1.4 ___ +0.8 _ +1.1 _ +0.9 ___ +0.6 _ +0.8 _ --0.2

RodneyS ___________ +1.6 _ +1.2 _ +1.6 ___ --2.5 _ +4.2 _ +0.7 ___ +0.2 _ --2.0 _ +2.7

Uncle W ____________ +1.5 _ +0.9 _ +0.6 ___ +0.4 _ +0.5 __ 0.0 

OHweather __________+1.5 _ +0.5 _ --0.5 ___ +1.5 _ +0.5 _ --1.0 ___ +2.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5

ksammut ___________ +1.3 _ +1.1 _ +0.5 ___ --1.2 _ +3.7 _ +1.3 ___ --2.0 _ --2.6 _ +1.6

goobagooba _________+1.3 _ +1.0 _ +1.7 ____ 0.0 _ +1.5 __ 0.0 ___ --1.2 _ +2.3 _ +1.9

 

Consensus __________ +1.3 _ +1.1 _ +1.2 ____ +0.3 _ +0.6 _ --0.2 ___ +0.3 _ +1.0 _ +1.1

 

Roger Smith _________+1.3 _ +1.0 _ +0.8 ___ +0.3 _ +0.6 _ --0.4 ___ +0.3 _ +0.8 _ +1.3

blazess556 __ (-4%) _ +1.2 _ +1.4 _ +1.6 ___ +0.5 _ +0.8 _ --0.4 ___ --0.7 _ +1.8 _ +1.9

cpick79 ____________ +1.2 _  +1.0 _  +1.0 ___ --0.8 _ --0.5 _--0.8 ___ +1.0 __  0.0 _ +0.5

Stebo _______________ +1.2 _ +1.0 _ +0.8 ___ +2.0 _ --0.3 _ --2.1 ___ +1.0 _ --0.8 _ +1.0

Mallow _____________ +1.1 _ +1.4 _ +1.7 ___ --1.1 _ +0.3 _ --0.2 ___ --0.1  _ +2.5 _ +1.1

donsutherland.1 ______+1.0 _ +1.2 _ +1.2 ___ +0.6 _ +0.7 _ --0.2 ___ --0.5 _ +1.6 _ +1.6

SD ________________ +1.0 _ +0.5 _ +0.5 ___ --0.5 _ +1.5 _ +0.5 ___ +2.0 _ +1.5 _ +2.0

Isotherm ____________+0.8 _ +1.1 _ +1.4 ___ +0.7 _ +0.6 _ --0.3 ___ --0.7 _ +1.3 _ +1.7

hudsonvalley21 ______ +0.7 _ +0.4 _ +0.2 ___ +1.2 _ --0.6 _ --1.0 ___ --0.1 _ +0.5 _ +0.6

 

Normal _____________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 

 

Tenman Johnson _____ --0.5 _ --0.8 _ --0.8 ___ +0.5 _ +0.6 _ +1.3

[Roger Smith]

These are the highest temperatures so far, and a table of the forecasts made in early May ...

 

note:

edited for DEN July 6th, PHX 24th, IAH 28th, ATL Aug 7th, SEA Aug 11th, NYC & BOS Sep 2nd.

 

___________________DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ___ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

FORECASTERS /_ so far_99 __ 92 __ 93 ______ 91 ___ 95 ___ 99 _____100 __ 116 ___ 96 (all as of Aug 11)

 

 

 

Roger Smith _______104___101___101_______102___100___108______104___119___ 99

 

blazess556 ________ 103___100___ 98_______ 101___102___103______ 99___118___ 94

 

ksammut _________103___ 99___ 98_________101___102___102______99___114___ 94

 

wxdude64 ________ 102___101___100________102___100___105_____101___118___ 99

 

cpick79 __________ 102___101___ 97_________ 95___102___104______ 97___122___ 93

 

metallicwx366 _____ 102___100___ 99________ 99___100___105______101___116___ 97

 

hudsonvalley21 ____102___100___ 96_________ 98___100___103______ 93___112___ 92

 

Stebo ____________102___ 98___ 96_________100___101___102_______97___117___ 92

 

Uncle W _________ 102___ 97___ 96__________ 99___102___104

 

 

Normal ___________101___100___ 98________100___101___104______ 99___115___ 92

 

Consensus ________ 101___ 99___ 97________ 99___100___102_______ 99___115___ 94

 

 

Midlo Snow Maker __ 100___ 99___ 97________ 98___ 97___101_______ 99___117___ 92

 

OHweather _______ 100___ 98___ 95________102___102___102______ 101___115___ 94

  

SD _______________100___ 96___ 92________ 96___103___108_______97___115___ 90

 

bkviking ___________99___ 98___ 95_________ 97___ 98___102_______99___119___ 91

 

goobagooba _______ 99___ 98___ 94_________ 95___ 99___101_______ 94___113___ 89

 

Isotherm __________ 99___ 96___ 96________ 95___100___102______ 102___117___ 95

 

Tom _____________ 98___ 99___ 94_________103___101___103______ 99___120___ 93

 

donsutherland.1 ____ 98___ 97___ 97_________96___100___102______100___116___ 91

 

Damage in Tolland __ 98___ 97___ 94________ 91___ 96___100_______102___118___ 92

 

Tenman Johnson ___ 97___ 96___ 96_________ 99___ 98___107

 

RodneyS __________ 97__ 96___ 94__________ 93___ 98___ 99_______ 98___115___ 91

 

 

early stages report on scoring

 

 

Numbers in regular black type are degrees you have left to "use up" before reaching your prediction.

Numbers in red are error points you have already locked in by predicting lower than actual value so far.

 

Eventually as these numbers change and the red numbers creep up the table, the winner will be the person with the lowest red plus black totals when we pass (late September) the point where any unmet prediction could verify.

 

(change made July 7th) To make the table more relevant to the actual contest, I have re-ordered the totals (using the original six stations since not everyone entered the western portion) and will continue to do so as the table changes. The order is now "total error points assuming no change" which is the sum of black and red numbers. This will very likely change by at least 10-15 as we move into the hottest part of the summer so this current order is likely to change. The combined (nine station) contest error point totals are in blue at the end of each row, and the order is similar although not exactly the same as the six station totals which are in bold black.

 

 

________ Error points left to play or locked in to date ______ TOTALS __ ^ _______ combined TOTALS ___

 

 

Damage in Tolland __ 1 ___ 5 ___ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____08 _ 1__ 09 ____ 2 ___2___ 4___ 12 _ 5 __ 17

 

RodneyS __________ 2 __ 4 ___ 1 _____ 2 ___ 3 ___ 0____ 10 _ 2__ 12  ___  2 ___ 1___ 5 __ 10 _10__ 20

 

goobagooba _______ 0___ 5 ___ 1 ____ 4 ___ 4 ___ 2 ____ 17 _ 0 __17  ____ 6 __  3___ 7___ 17 _16 __ 33

 

Isotherm __________ 0___ 4 ___ 3 ____ 4 ___ 5 ___ 3 ____ 19 _ 0 __19 ____ 2 ___1___ 1____ 22 _ 1__ 23

 

bkviking ___________ 0___ 6 ___ 2 ____ 6 ___ 3 ___ 3 ____ 20 _ 0 __20 ___  1 ___3___ 5 ____23 _ 6 __ 29

 

Midlo Snow Maker __ 1 ___ 7 ___ 4 ____ 7 ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 23 _ 0 __ 23  ____ 1 ___1___ 4____24 _ 5 __ 29

 

donsutherland.1 ____ 1 ___ 5 ___ 4 ____ 5 ___ 5 ___ 3 ____ 22 _ 1__ 23 ____ 0 ___0___ 5____ 22 _ 6 __ 28

 

SD _______________ 1 ___ 4 ___  1 ____ 5 ___ 8 ___ 9____ 27 _ 1 __ 28 ____ 3 ___1___ 6____27 _11 __ 38

 

Tenman Johnson____ 2 ___ 4 ___ 3 ____ 8 ___ 3 ___ 8____ 26 _ 2 __ 28

 

 

Consensus ________ 2 ___ 7 ___ 4 ____ 8 ___ 5 ___ 3 ____ 29 _ 0 __ 29 ____  1___1___ 2____29 _ 4 __ 33

 

 

hudsonvalley21 ____ 3 ___ 8 ___ 3 ____ 7 ___ 5 ___ 4 ____ 30 _ 0 __ 30 ____ 7 ___ 4___ 4____30_ 15  _ 45

 

Stebo ____________ 3 ___ 6 ___ 3 ____ 9 ___ 6 ___ 3 ____ 30 _ 0 __ 30____ 3 ___1___ 4 ____ 31 _ 7 __38

 

OHweather ________ 1 ___ 6 ___ 2 ____11___ 7 ___ 3 ____ 30 _ 0 __ 30 ____ 1 ___1___ 2____ 31 _ 3 __ 34

 

Uncle W __________ 3 ___ 5 ___ 3 ____ 8 ___ 6 ___ 5 ____ 30 _  0 __ 30

 

Tom _____________ 1____ 7 ___ 1 ___ 12 ___ 6 ___ 5 ____ 30 _ 1 __ 31 ____ 1 __ 4___ 3____ 34 _ 5 __ 39

 

cpick79 __________ 3 ____ 9___ 4 _____ 4 ___ 7 ___ 5 ____ 32 _ 0 __ 32 ____ 3 __ 6___ 3 ____38 _ 6 __ 44

 

 

Normal ___________ 2 ___ 8 ___ 5 ____ 9 ___ 6 ___ 5 ____ 35 _ 0 __ 35 ____  1 ___1___ 4____ 35 _ 6__ 41

 

 

ksammut _________ 4 ___ 7 ___ 5 ____10___ 7 ___ 3 ____ 36 _ 0 __ 36  ____  1 ___2___ 2____36 _ 5 __ 41

 

metallicwx366 _____ 3 ___ 8 ___ 6 ____ 8 ___ 5 ___ 6 ____ 36 _ 0 __ 36  ____ 1 ___0___ 1____38 _ 0 __ 38

 

blazess556 ________ 4 ___ 8 ___ 5____ 10___ 7 ___ 4 ____ 38 _ 0 __ 38 ____ 1 ___2___ 2 ____40 _ 3 __ 43

 

wxdude64 ________ 3 ___ 9 ___ 7 _____11___ 5 ___ 6  ___ 41 _ 0 __ 41  ____ 1 ___2___ 3____47 _ 0 __ 47

 

Roger Smith _______5 ___ 9 ___ 9 ____ 11___ 5 ___ 9____ 47 _ 0 __ 47 _____ 4___3___ 3 ____57 _ 0 __ 57

[Roger Smith]

After six days, these are the anomalies ... as some of us may not be that familiar with normal values, I have included them this time, but will update the table with just anomalies on 10th, 13th then counting down after 15th.

 

After n days _______ DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH _____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

normal (1-6) ______ 79.4 __ 75.9 __ 72.4 ____ 73.7 __ 80.0 __ 84.0 ____ 72.5 __ 94.5 __ 64.0

 

__ anom 6 ________ +1.2__ +0.2__ +3.7____ --4.6__ --1.6__ --1.5_____ +1.8__ --0.2__ +5.0

__ anom 10 _______ +1.5__ +1.7__ +4.5____ --3.0__ --0.9__ --1.1_____ +2.4__ +0.1__ +5.3

__ anom 13 _______ +1.5__ +1.6__ +3.0____ --2.3__ --0.7__ --0.8_____ +2.3__ +0.5__ +6.1

__ anom 15 _______ +1.7__ +1.6__ +3.2____ --3.0__ --0.6__ --0.7_____ +1.2__ +0.2__ +6.0

__ anom 16 _______ +1.3__ +1.3__ +3.1____ --3.5__ --1.0__ --0.8_____ +0.5__ +0.2__ +6.1

__ anom 17 _______ +0.9__ +1.1__ +2.7____ --3.7__ --1.4__ --0.8_____ --0.1__ +0.3__ +5.9

__ anom 18 _______ +0.7__ +0.7__ +2.4____ --3.8__ --1.6__ --0.9_____ --0.2__ +0.2__ +5.4

__ anom 19 _______ +0.6__ +0.4__ +1.9____ --3.9__ --1.6__ --1.2_____ +0.1__ +0.2__ +5.3

__ anom 20 _______ +0.5__ +0.2__ +1.4____ --3.8__ --2.0__ --1.2_____ +0.5__ +0.3__ +4.8

__ anom 21 _______ +0.5__ +0.2__ +1.1____ --3.7__ --2.0__ --1.1_____ +0.8__ +0.3__ +4.6

__ anom 22 _______ +0.5__ +0.2__ +1.0____ --3.2__ --2.0__ --1.0_____ +0.9__ +0.5__ +4.2

__ anom 23 _______ +0.7__ +0.3__ +1.3____ --3.4__ --2.0__ --0.9_____ +1.1__ +0.9__ +3.7

__ anom 24 _______ +0.5__ +0.2__ +1.1____ --3.7__ --1.9__ --0.9_____ +1.3__ +1.3__ +3.4

__ anom 25 _______ +0.3__ +0.1__ +1.0____ --3.9__ --1.9__ --0.9_____ +1.5__ +1.3__ +3.1

__ anom 26 _______ +0.3___ 0.0__ +1.0____ --3.6__ --1.9__ --0.8_____ +1.6__ +1.3__ +3.0

__ anom 27 _______ +0.3__ +0.1__ +0.9____ --3.4__ --1.7__ --0.7_____ +1.4__ +1.2__ +3.0

__ anom 28 _______ +0.2___  0.0__ +0.9____ --3.5__ --1.6__ --0.6_____ +1.2__ +1.2__ +3.1

__ anom 29 _______ --0.1__ --0.2__ +0.8____ --3.6__ --1.8__ --0.6_____ +1.1__ +1.4__ +3.2

__ anom 30 _______ --0.4__ --0.4__ +0.6____ --3.6__ --2.0__ --0.7_____ +0.5__ +1.6__ +3.3

 

___ final 31 _______ --0.4 __--0.4 __ +0.7 ___--3.6__--2.3__--0.7 ___ +0.3 __+1.7__+3.5

 

 

All of the final anomalies are now posted above, the tables should be updated by 1 p.m. today (Aug 1).

[Roger Smith]

<<<o0o------------------------- UPDATED ANNUAL SCORING (Jan-July 2014) -------------------------------o0o>>>

 

 

NOTE: Scores are adjusted for more lenient time penalties March to May, those results are edited if you wish to check back, the effect is that all monthly penalties are now the same, and they will remain in the same format from now to end of 2014.

 

 

FORECASTER _________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ CL ____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ EX ____ TOTALS ____ HIGH SCORES

 

__Annual anomalies __ --1.1 _ --1.8 _ --1.1 __ ,, ___ --3.7_ --1.3_ --2.2 __ ,, __________DC..NY.BO.OR.AT.IA...CL..EX...MO

 

 

donsutherland.1 ______ 524 _540 _618__1682 ___ 390 _ 476 _ 472___1338___ 3020 ____011 011 __ 1 _ 1 __ APR

Roger Smith _________ 518 _ 508 _ 462__1488 ___ 494 _522_ 491___1507___ 2995 ____111 313 __ 0 _ 2 _JAN,JUN

Mallow ______________506 _ 494 _ 556__1556 ___ 412 _ 493 _ 444___1349___ 2905 ____011 100 __ 0 _ 0

OHweather __________ 531 _ 509 _ 562__1602 ___ 350 _ 507 _ 366___1223___ 2825 ____100 020 __ 0 _ 0

Isotherm ____________ 500 _ 502 _ 538__1540 ___ 355 _ 464 _ 450___1269___ 2809 ____010 000 __ 0 _ 0

blazess556 ___________489 _ 521 _ 561__1571 ___ 351 _ 440 _ 444___1235___ 2806 ____011 010 __ 1 _ 0

 

Consensus ___________ 488 _ 500 _ 566__1554 ___ 340 _ 474 _ 430___1244___ 2798 ____000 010 __ 0 _ 0

 

Midlo Snow Maker _____504 _ 508 _ 568__1580 ___ 364 _ 402 _ 406___1172___ 2752 ____010 121 __ 0 _ 1

Goobagooba _________ 456 _ 502 _ 548__1506 ___ 357 _ 410 _ 424___1191___ 2697 ____002 100 __ 1 _ 0

hudsonvalley21 _______473 _ 487 _ 546__1506 ___ 281 _ 459 _ 434___1174___ 2680  ____000 010 __ 0 _ 0

Tom________________ 455 _ 459 _ 479__1393 ___ 414 _ 451 _ 337___1202___ 2595

Stebo _______________460 _ 404 _ 530__1394 ___ 285 _ 440 _ 460___1185___ 2579 ____200 001 __ 0 _ 0

bkviking _____________493 _ 464 _ 533__1490 ___ 292 _ 485 _ 312___1089___ 2579 ____000 000 __ 0 _ 0 ___ MAY

Tenman Johnson ______476 _ 450 _ 476__1402 ___ 319 _ 405 _ 446___1170___ 2572 ____210 001 __ 3 _ 1 ___ MAR

metallicwx366 ________533 _ 439 _ 431__1403 ___ 399 _ 416 _ 338___1153___ 2556 ____100 000 __ 0 _ 0

Damage in Tolland_____504 _ 488 _ 542__1534 ___ 338 _ 416 _ 260___1014___ 2548 ____100 010 __ 1 _ 0

ksammut ____________ 438 _ 466 _ 524__1428 ___ 278 _ 334 _ 484___1096___ 2524 ____011 001 __ 1 _ 1 __ FEB

cpick79 ______________398 _ 401 _ 499__1298 ___ 330 _ 495 _ 388___1213___ 2511____000 002 __ 0 _ 1 __ JUL

Uncle W _____________364 _ 398 _ 510__1272 ___ 292 _ 438 _ 504___1234___ 2506 ____001 002 __ 0 _ 0

 

Normal ______________ 414 _ 380 _ 476__1266 ___ 254 _ 462 _ 444___1160___ 2426 ____001 102 __ 1 _ 1 __ 

 

wxdude64 ___________ 422 _ 440 _ 518__1380 ___ 249 _ 314 _ 480___1043 ___ 2423 ____000 001 __ 0 _ 0

RodneyS _____________344 _ 366 _ 450__1160 ___ 299 _ 310 _ 484___1093 ___ 2253 ____000 101 __ 0 _ 0

SD__________________ 331 _ 337 _ 427__1095 ___ 221 _ 407 _ 332___ 960 ___ 2055

Chicago Storm**** ____ 186 _ 153 _ 148__ 487 ___ 117 _ 134 __ 97___ 348 ____ 835

weatherdude @_________66 __120 _ 150__ 336 ___ 115 __96 _ 126___ 337 ____ 673 ____000 010 __ 0 _ 0

H20Town_Wx @ ______ 125 __102 _ 144___371 ___ 83 __ 90 __ 60___ 233 ____ 604 ____001 000 __ 0 _ 0

mikehobbyst @* ________84 __ 92 __ 78___ 254 ___ 64 __ 68 __ 80___ 212 ____ 466

Quincy @*____________ 54 __ 66 __ 42___162 ____ 38 __ 82 __ 92___ 212 ____ 374

TropicalAnalystwx13 @*__88 __ 44 __ 76___208 ____ 26 __ 76 ___60___ 162 ____370

swflow @ *____________74 __ 66 __ 82___222 ____ 90 __ 36 __ 00___ 126 ____348

CSheridan12 @*________ 46 __ 04 __ 00___ 50 _____12 __ 86 __ 44___ 144 ____192

 

_____________________________________________________________

 

 

Four Seasons Award Points (winter + spring provisional)

 

Forecaster ____________________ win _ spr _ sum _ aut ________ total

 

Donsutherland.1 ______________________ 7 __ 10 ___ -- ___ -- __________ 17

 

Goobagooba ________________________ 10 ___ 0 ___ -- ___ -- __________ 10

Roger Smith _________________________ 1 ___ 6 ___ -- ___ -- ___________ 7

blazess556 __________________________ 5 ___ 2 ___ -- ___ -- ___________ 7

Midlo Snow Maker ____________________ 4 ___ 3 ___ -- ___ -- ___________ 7

Mallow ______________________________2 ___ 5 ___ -- ___ -- ___________ 7

Isotherm ____________________________ 0 ___ 7 ___ -- ___ -- ___________ 7

Damage in Tolland ____________________ 6 ___ 0 ___ -- ___ -- ___________ 6

metallicwx366 ________________________ 3 ___ 1 ___ -- ___ -- ___________ 4

Ohweather ___________________________0 ___ 4 ___ -- ___ -- ___________ 4

 

Consensus __________________________ 1 ___ 3 ___ -- ___ -- ____________4

 

Tenman Johnson, uncleW ______________ 0 ___ 1 ___ -- ___ -- ___________ 1

hudsonvalley, Tom, wxdude64 ___________1 ___ 0 ___ -- ___ -- ___________ 1

 

(seasonal points ... 10 for first, 7 for second, 6 for third etc, 1 pt for 8th to 10th)

 

 

Annual Scores for Optional western contest (including updated four seasons)

 

____________________ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ____ TOTAL _____ best forecast awards ________ four season award

Annual anomalies _____--0.5_ +3.2 _ +1.7__________DEN PHX SEA _ W_Months __ Win,Spr,Sum,Aut _ TOT

 

Mallow ______________ 632 __ 542 __ 526 ____1700 ____3 0 0 ____ 3 FEB,APR,JUN_ 6, 7 _____ (13)

Isotherm _____________574 __ 518 __576 ____1668 _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ____10,4 _____ (14)

Midlo Snow Maker _____ 508 __ 588__ 530 ____1626 ____ 0 0 2 ____ 0 ___________ 4, 10_____ (14)

 

Consensus ____________600 __ 492 __ 508 ____1600 ____1 0 1 ____ 1 __ APR ______ 2,6 ______ (9)

 

donsutherland.1 _______ 522 __ 502 __536 ____1560 ____ 0 1 0 ____ 1 __ JUL _______1,6 ______ (7)

Goobagooba __________ 534 __ 528__ 472 ____1534 ____ 1 1 0 ____ 1 __ JAN ______ 7,1 ______ (8)

blazess556 ___________ 517 __ 488 __ 527 ____1532 ____ 0 0 2 ____ 0 _ _ _ _ ______ 5,1 ______ (6)

Roger Smith __________ 446 __ 492 __ 546 ____1484 ____ 1 0 1 ____ 0 _____________2,0 ______ (2)

metalicwx366 _________ 464 __ 493 __ 497 ___ 1454 _____________________________1,1 ______ (2)

wxdude64 ____________ 565 __ 402 __ 464 ___ 1431_____1 0 1 ____ 0 _____________3,0 ______ (3)

Damage in Tolland _____ 418 __ 488 __ 482 ___ 1388 ______________1__ MAY ______ 0,3 ______ (3)

bkviking ______________474 __ 499 __ 408 ____1381_____0 1 0 ____ 1 __ MAR ______0,2 ______ (2)

Tom _________________467 __ 435 __ 409 ____1311 ____________________________1,0 ______ (1)

 

Normal ______________ 548 __ 314 __ 394 ____1256

 

hudsonvalley21*_______ 462 __ 379 __ 353 ____1194

ksammut _____________418 __ 334 ___404 ____1156

RodneyS _____________ 568 __ 230 __ 342 ____1140 ____0 0 1 ____ 0

SD __________________318 __ 411 __ 408 ____1137 ____0 1 0
OHweather ___________ 400 __ 313 __ 399 ____1112

cpick79*______________408 __ 393 __ 296 ____1097 ____0 0 1 ___________________ 0,5 ______ (5)
Stebo _______________ 452 __ 260 __ 280 _____992

Chicago Storm****_____ 172 __ 108 __ 162 _____442

H20Town_Wx @ _______146 ___ 97 __ 141 _____384

Quincy @* ____________ 84 ___100 ___ 80 ____ 264 ___ 0 1 0 ____ 0
Mikehobbyst @* _______100 ___ 66 ___ 52 _____218 ___ 1 0 0 ____ 0
swflow @* ____________ 61 ___ 90 ___ 40 _____191____0 1 0 ____ 0
TropicalAnalystwx13 @* _54 ___ 00 ___ 92 _____ 146
CSheridan12 @*________00 ___ 84 ___ 00 ______ 84 ___ 0 1 0 ____ 0
weatherdude @* _______12 ___ 08 ___ 30 ______ 50

___________________________________________________________

 

* months missed

@ five months missed

[Roger Smith]

Final Scores for July

 

 

FORECASTER ____________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ____ CL _____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ EX _____ TOT

 

Anomalies ______________________--0.4 _ --0.4 _ +0.7 __ _ _______--3.6 _ --2.3 _--0.7

 

 

Cpick79 _________________________ 68 __ 72 __ 94 ___ 234 _______ 44 __ 64 __ 98____ 206 ____ 440

 

Normal _________________________ 92 __ 92 __ 86 ___ 270 _______ 28 __ 54 __ 86 ____ 168 ____ 438

 

hudsonvalley21 ___________________78 __ 84 __ 90 ___ 252 _______ 04 __ 66 __ 94 ____ 164 ____ 416

Mallow __________________________70 __ 64 __ 80 ___ 214 _______ 50 __ 48 __ 90 ____ 188 ____ 402

Roger Smith ______________________66 __ 72 __ 98___ 236 _______ 22 __ 42 __ 94 ____ 158 ____ 394

SD _____________________________ 72 __ 82 __ 96 ___ 250 _______ 38 __ 24 __ 76 ____ 138 ____ 388

uncleW __________________________62 __ 74 __ 98___ 234 _______ 20 __ 44 __ 86 ____ 150 ____ 384

Tenman Johnson __________________98 __92 __ 70 ___ 260 _______ 18 __ 42 __ 60 ____ 120 ____ 380

Isotherm ________________________ 76 __ 70 __ 86 ___ 232 _______ 14 __ 42 __ 92 ____ 148 ____ 380

 

Consensus _______________________ 66 __ 70 __ 90 ___ 224 _______ 22 __ 42 __ 90 ____ 160 ____ 380

 

donsutherland.1 __________________ 72 __ 68 __ 90 ___ 230 _______ 16 __ 40 __ 90 ____ 146 ____ 376

Midlo Snow Maker _________________52 __ 60 __ 80 ___ 192 _______ 46 __ 36 __ 98____ 180 ____ 372

stebo ___________________________68 __ 72 __ 98 ___ 238 _______ 00 __ 60 __ 72 ____ 132 ____ 370

bkviking _________________________56 __ 70 __ 90 ___ 216 _______ 12 __ 62 __ 78 ____ 152 ____ 366

Rodney S ________________________60 __ 68 __ 82 ___ 210 _______ 78__ 00 __ 72 ____ 150 ____ 360

OHweather ______________________ 62 __ 82 __ 76 ___ 220 _______ 00 __ 44 __ 94 ____ 138 ____ 358

goobagooba _____________________ 66 __ 72 __ 80 ___ 218 _______ 28 __ 24 __ 86 ____ 138 ____ 356

blazess556_______________________ 68 __ 64 __ 82 _ 214 _________ 18 __ 38 __ 94 _ 150 __ 364

____ (-4%)  _____________________ 65 __ 61 __ 79 ___ 205 _______ 17 __ 36 __ 90 ____ 143 ____ 348

ksammut ________________________66 __ 70 __ 96 ___ 232 _______ 52 __ 00 __ 60 ____ 112 ____ 344

metalicwx366 ____________________ 54 __ 56 __ 90 ___ 200 _______ 50 __ 12 __ 64 ____ 126 ____ 326

wxdude64 _______________________56 __ 58 __ 66 _ 180__________ 62 __ 02 __ 80 _ 144 __ 324

____ (-3%) ______________________54 __ 56 __ 64 ___ 174 _______ 60 __ 02 __ 78 ____ 140 ____ 314 

Tom ____________________________60 __ 54 __ 86 ___ 200 _______ 12 __ 32 __ 68 ____ 112 ____ 312

Damage in Tolland ________________ 30 __ 44 __ 70 ___ 144 _______ 08 __ 24 __ 66 ____ 098 ____ 242

 

 

Final Scores for July, optional western contest

 

 

FORECASTER ____________________ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ____ TOTAL

 

Anomalies ______________________ +0.3 _ +1.7 _ +3.5

 

donsutherland.1 __________________ 84 __ 98 __ 62 ______ 244

Roger Smith _____________________100__ 82 __ 56 ______ 238

 

Consensus_______________________100__ 86 __ 52 ______ 238

 

wxdude64 _______________________98 __ 66 __ 80 __ 244

____ (-3%) ______________________95 __ 64 __ 78 ______ 237

Isotherm ________________________ 80 __ 92 __ 64 ______ 236

SD _____________________________ 66 __ 96 __ 70 ______ 236

blazess556_______________________ 80 __ 98 __ 68 __ 246

____ (-4%) ______________________77 __ 94 __ 65 ______ 236

Mallow __________________________92 __ 84 __ 52 ______ 228

goobagooba _____________________ 70 __ 88 __ 68 ______ 226

Midlo Snow Maker _________________74 __ 94 __ 52 ______ 220

hudsonvalley21 ___________________92 __ 76 __ 42 ______ 210

Rodney S ________________________98 __ 26 __ 84______ 208

Tom ____________________________94 __ 82 __ 26 ______ 202   

bkviking _________________________80 __ 58 __ 54 ______ 192

OHweather ______________________ 66 __ 86 __ 40 ______ 192

Cpick79 _________________________ 86 __ 66 __ 40 ______ 192  

 

Normal __________________________94 __ 66 __ 30 ______ 190

 

 

metalicwx366 ____________________ 60 __ 88 __ 38 ______ 186

stebo ___________________________86 __ 50 __ 50 ______ 186

Damage in Tolland ________________56 __ 74 __ 22 ______ 152

ksammut ________________________54 __ 14 __ 62 ______ 130

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Midlo Snow Maker]

Thanks again roger for your time on this

[Roger Smith]

Not a problem, but please note, if you don't see me around much for the next two weeks, I'm on holiday and likely off the net most of the time. If anyone wants to post anomalies in the August thread, make sure they are for DCA and NYC not IAD, JFK or LGA. The other ones are less likely to be confused. Tip, the IAH data are easier to find from the map than the "data by state" menu because TX takes a long time to load and keeps crashing (for me at least). Oh, well there's another station to note, IAH not HOU.