SmokeEater Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Looks to be heading right for Lincoln. Edit: Reports on scanner of two tornado's on the ground moving east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Sounds like FD is reporting tornadoes on the ground with both cells, moving east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Lincoln is really small on Google Earth it would be horribly bad luck if they take a hit....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 The storm that passed Morrison had very little in the way of a legit circulation until after it reached Reinbeck, not much of chance to warn that one ahead of time. The first warning for Atchison was canceled after 4 minutes, not sure I've seen that before. Now there is another one, Kansas City airport radar showing in and out couplets in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Looks to be firing again near Eldora also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Lincoln is really small on Google Earth it would be horribly bad luck if they take a hit.......Population 162, looks like it went right over town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 There might have been some cycling going around Lincoln, not sure about the fate of the town. Circulation has dramatically intensified to the east of town. EDIT: or maybe not... looked strong for one scan at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Population 162, looks like it went right over town. Yeah I mean wow.... the entire town is in a area about 600 by 400 yards, but it looks like they took a possible hit though and there is miles of nothing in all directions....just rotten luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Storm near Atchison,KS really getting going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 ^Apparently a tornado from that cell was confirmed near Rushville about 10 min ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Kelley Williamson's Cam SE or Harlan, IA. Very low wall cloud or possible tornado, couldn't tell for certain, cell doesn't look to be warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 I see a tornado report in Atchison KS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Don't mean to take the focus away from tonight's ongoing event, but just glancing at the 00z NAM... paints a scary picture for central to eastern Iowa into IL and WI tomorrow. While the NAM has been a fairly terrible model overall, it has actually done somewhat decent with the parameter space for the past few big events in the 24 hour range. There is quite a large area of maxed out STP and Supercell Composite starting at 21z with very little caping. If things can remain discrete and not messy... look out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Cell in east central Linn County looks rather suspicious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 The NAM and GFS both look downright scary for tomorrow. Huge looping hodographs and an area of 80-100 knot shear (95 NAM, 100 GFS) coinciding with >2500 J/kg SBCAPE from eastern Iowa toward the Illinois/Wisconsin border. If the storm mode stays discrete long enough, that could produce some violent tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Honestly surprised there isn't more discussion about tomorrow. The models are all in fairly close agreement that there could be a major outbreak. I fully believe we will see a high risk at some point tomorrow if the models are correct and depending on how the overnight convection behaves. Even, if the storm mode is linear, I think you would see a high risk for winds. The pressure gradient the models are spitting out is crazy. I would be worried it's convective feedback but the GFS NAM and ECMWF are all showing similar values. The parameters are simply maxed out over a very large area. We could see an historic late June event. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 NWS Topeka has confirmed that a tornado briefly touched down in North Topeka at approximately 9:23 PM. The storm in question wasn't even severe warned, yet alone Tornado warned. Here's a pic of North Topeka around the time that it happened: Credit to twitter user: https://twitter.com/bubbles471981 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Honestly surprised there isn't more discussion about tomorrow. The models are all in fairly close agreement that there could be a major outbreak. I fully believe we will see a high risk at some point tomorrow if the models are correct and depending on how the overnight convection behaves. Even, if the storm mode is linear, I think you would see a high risk for winds. The pressure gradient the models are spitting out is crazy. I would be worried it's convective feedback but the GFS NAM and ECMWF are all showing similar values. The parameters are simply maxed out over a very large area. We could see an historic late June event. Sent from my iPad See the Lakes/OV thread for further discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Ah, my bad... That explains a lot. I knew I had to be missing some discussion. I should have checked. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Will be in Madison WI Monday... Madison WI 24z on 0z NAM: 0-3km EHI Madison WI 24z on 0z NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xjcsa Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Honestly surprised there isn't more discussion about tomorrow. The models are all in fairly close agreement that there could be a major outbreak. I fully believe we will see a high risk at some point tomorrow if the models are correct and depending on how the overnight convection behaves. Even, if the storm mode is linear, I think you would see a high risk for winds. The pressure gradient the models are spitting out is crazy. I would be worried it's convective feedback but the GFS NAM and ECMWF are all showing similar values. The parameters are simply maxed out over a very large area. We could see an historic late June event. Sent from my iPad I'm a rank amateur - I probably know just enough to get me in trouble - but looking at the NAM forecast sounding for 22Z tomorrow (from the 00Z run; select the 22hr option at the link) for my location (KALO) shows: STP - 36.9 (!) SRH (1 km) - 616.0 SRH (0-3 km) - 920.2 CAPE: 2857 LCL height: 175.6m LFC height: 874.9m ...and a gigantic looping hodograph. So...is that as insane as it looks to me? Are there factors I'm not aware of that reduce the actual threat level, or is tomorrow afternoon potentially crazy here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 I'm a rank amateur - I probably know just enough to get me in trouble - but looking at the NAM forecast sounding for 22Z tomorrow (from the 00Z run; select the 22hr option at the link) for my location (KALO) shows: STP - 36.9 (!) SRH (1 km) - 616.0 SRH (0-3 km) - 920.2 CAPE: 2857 LCL height: 175.6m LFC height: 874.9m ...and a gigantic looping hodograph. So...is that as insane as it looks to me? Are there factors I'm not aware of that reduce the actual threat level, or is tomorrow afternoon potentially crazy here? The SPC noted in their discussion that came out at 2am this morning that the GFS and NAM looked to be suffering from convective feedback, so those parameters are likely somewhat overdone. Still, the potential for significant and long-lived tornadoes looks to exist across southern Iowa this afternoon. In fact...getting started early farther west this morning: NEC179-301330-/O.CON.KOAX.TO.W.0027.000000T0000Z-140630T1330Z/ WAYNE NE- 814 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 AM CDT FOR WESTERN WAYNE COUNTY... AT 812 AM CDT...A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR WINSIDE...OR 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF NORFOLK...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. LAW ENFORECMENT REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD 6 NW OF HOSKINS. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... CARROLL AROUND 815 AM CDT. WINSIDE AROUND 820 AM CDT. WAYNE AROUND 830 AM CDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE 8 MILES SOUTH OF WAYNE.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY TORNADO IS DEVELOPING. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Maybe it's just me but I'm a bit surprised at the extreme wording used when there is "only" a confirmed funnel. Granted, things can change quickly but just the combo of words without anything verified yet. With a 15% hatched area for tornadoes across central and southern Iowa now, the action is going to get interesting around me today. Edit: Pilger is dodging the bullet today as that tornadic storm turned a bit more southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Sig tornado in effective layer already at 5 in Central NE. Pretty decent helicity through the column near Pilger (350-400). Looks to give Bancroft a run its money if the storm completes its cycle. Little EHI in the area though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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