milkman Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Woke up early this morning in Norman and decided to be a no-go. Hope you can make me regret this thunder road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawkers Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Honestly surprised they didn't do away with the MDT Risk, believe it actually got expanded a bit... Lots of cloud cover over the outlook area still, should keep insolation relatively minimal. I guess it's possible we could see some adiabatic heating from the pressure rises to produce enough heat to minimize the effects of cloud cover, and therefore still end up with forecast CAPE/Shear combo. EDIT: feel free to correct me of I'm wrong, but I believe that's how adiabatic processes work somewhat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Honestly surprised they didn't do away with the MDT Risk, believe it actually got expanded a bit... Lots of cloud cover over the outlook area still, should keep insolation relatively minimal. I guess it's possible we could see some adiabatic heating from the pressure rises to produce enough heat to minimize the effects of cloud cover, and therefore still end up with forecast CAPE/Shear combo. EDIT: feel free to correct me of I'm wrong, but I believe that's how adiabatic processes work somewhat...The early convection is fading and remember that we are near the annual peak for length of daylight, so we still have several hours to recover. I don't think we'll see widespread extreme instability, but enough heating to coincide with strong kinematic support for at least a few tornadoes. Have to think the outflow boundaries, especially in eastern Nebraska/far western Iowa can be focal points too in addition to the warm front. Liking the SE winds in the Omaha area right now. Numerous dew-points of 72-73+. Patience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Honestly surprised they didn't do away with the MDT Risk, believe it actually got expanded a bit... Lots of cloud cover over the outlook area still, should keep insolation relatively minimal. I guess it's possible we could see some adiabatic heating from the pressure rises to produce enough heat to minimize the effects of cloud cover, and therefore still end up with forecast CAPE/Shear combo. EDIT: feel free to correct me of I'm wrong, but I believe that's how adiabatic processes work somewhat... Just looking from first glance, it was expanded more towards central Nebraska and also expanded south closer to Kansas City. Northern edge maybe a hair further north but not a big change. The risk today isn't as highly favorable on tornadoes but much more so on severe winds and the large hail. So it makes sense to keep moderate for those at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Visible satellite shows clouds quickly moving out of eastern Nebraska. Like I said before, patience. Don't expect a major outbreak, but I think it's silly that many chasers have already called today off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 In Atlantic now. Low-level clouds are mostly mixing out but there's still some cirrocu to deal with it. Doesn't seem to be inhibiting heating all that much though. And I really like all the backed low-level flow in central IA. Mesoanalysis seems to be showing sfc winds not quite as backed as obs shows in reality, and it still has us knocking on 20 kts of 0-1 km bulk shear, so realistically we're probably around 20-25 kts. I'm tempted to drift back west, but much farther west from here is bluffs/the river/Omaha metro, so even initiation is over Omaha or just a bit west, there's nothing we can really do but wait here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 29, 2014 Author Share Posted June 29, 2014 Is OAX doing a special sounding today? Nevermind, just checked twitter, they are doing an 18z sounding, data not in yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 MD out. Only 60% probs for watch issuance. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1195NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0202 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND ERN NEB...WRN INTO CENTRALIACONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLEVALID 291902Z - 292100ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENTSUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE NEXT FEW HOURSFROM CENTRAL NEB INTO WRN AND CENTRAL IA. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGINGWINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING. AREAIS BEING MONITORED FOR WATCH ISSUANCE BY 21Z.DISCUSSION...AS MORNING CLOUD COVER HAS THINNED AND SHIFTEDEWD...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S...ANDSTRONG DESTABILIZATION WAS OCCURRING IN A MOIST AIRMASS /UPPER 60STO LOW 70S DEWPOINTS/ BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /AOA 7 DEGC PER KM PER 18Z OAX RAOB/. WHILE THE 18Z OAX AND TOP RAOBSINDICATED SOME INHIBITION STILL EXISTS...GREATER HEATING ACROSSCENTRAL NEB HAS OCCURRED AND LITTLE IF ANY CAPPING REMAINS. THIS ISEVIDENT IN AGITATED/CONGESTED CU FIELD ALONG THE EFFECTIVEFRONT/RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE CONVECTIVE INITIATION ISTRYING TO OCCUR AS NOTED BY WEAK ECHOS ON REGIONAL RADAR IN THEVICINITY OF BOONE COUNTY NEB.ONCE INITIATION OCCURS...FAVORABLE SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILESWILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDSPOSSIBLE. FURTHER EAST INTO ERN NEB/WRN IA...BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDSWILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL. WITH TIME...ASADDITIONAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE LAID OUT BY INDIVIDUALSTORMS...UPSCALE GROWTH INTO BOWING SEGMENTS WILL BEPOSSIBLE...ENHANCING THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT...LEITMAN/CORFIDI.. 06/29/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EricHaley Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Seeing some initiation SE of Lincoln. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 A few little showers going now north and west of Fremont. Still sitting in Atlantic deciding what to do, but I;m pretty unimpressed attm. Plenty of instability and deep-layer shear for organized clusters and maybe even supercells, but the low levels are messy. The 18z OAX sounding had a due west wind at 850 mb, and only at 20 or 25 kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Wouldn't really call that initiation... some building Cu... definitely not initiation... Seeing some initiation SE of Lincoln. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EricHaley Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Temp is 88 here in Lincoln, but DP and humidity are dropping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Tornado Watch out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Very muddled setup in my opinion. Better shear and outflow boundaries are a bit displaced NW from the juicy obs with solidly backed winds across southern Iowa and northern Missouri. HRRR runs with the idea of storms firing north along that boundary that's just north of Omaha, but individual storms don't have intense updraft helicities that you'd like to see. Hanging around near Blair, NE so I have a good crossing into Iowa that's away from the chaser convergence. Also banking on one of these cells eventually going severe, but only time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 On 80 now heading back west to Missouri Valley. Blair cell actually looks pretty nice now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 29, 2014 Author Share Posted June 29, 2014 HRRR runs with the idea of storms firing north along that boundary that's just north of Omaha, but individual storms don't have intense updraft helicities that you'd like to see. They really didn't on 6/16 either (not that this setup is anywhere in the league of that one especially mesoscale wise). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Looks like some scud on the Dominator 2 stream on the Blair cell. But looks promising overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 29, 2014 Author Share Posted June 29, 2014 Looks like some scud on the Dominator 2 stream on the Blair cell. But looks promising overall. Already has a good amount of mid level rotation and a great looking wall cloud/lowering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Tornadoraiders stream has the best view of it right now. Definite lowering/wall cloud but needs to tighten up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 29, 2014 Author Share Posted June 29, 2014 Inflow increasing substantially on the latest scan. Very impressive wall cloud on tornadoraiders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Latest scan looks really promising, we may have our first "go" soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Looks like some scud on the Dominator 2 stream on the Blair cell. But looks promising overall. Should be a Tornado Warning on that cell soon... Rotating wall cloud becoming more impressive on the Dominator2 feed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Only 30/20 tornado probs in the tornado watch right now despite the 10% tornado probs on the outlook... interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Circulation starting to tighten up on latest scan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Mehh one good cell and it's not really developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 29, 2014 Author Share Posted June 29, 2014 Mehh one good cell and it's not really developing. lol It's a well developed supercell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Mehh one good cell and it's not really developing. Considering the lack of low-level shear it's doing pretty well... has come close to tornadoing a couple of times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Considering the lack of low-level shear it's doing pretty well... has come close to tornadoing a couple of times. Considering the circumstances, I agree. It's trying hard but not getting the spark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Several chasers reported brief tor on it.. Omaha doesn't seem to care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 From Ben Holcomb... Looks more like a May day in OK, not June 29th in IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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