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NNE Summer Thread

mreaves

By mreaves,
in New England

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J.Spin

J.Spin

Posted
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Haha just give us a warning storm before February and we'll be alright. A bunch of us up here were losing it by the end of January.

 

It certainly seemed to be a slow season in terms of large snowfall events that prompted Winter Storm Warnings in the Northern Greens, but your statement got me curious about how that actually played out around here.  What I did was to grab the top ten storms recorded at our site with respect to accumulation, and put them in chronological order below.  The first number is their rank in terms of accumulation, followed by the storm total in inches, the dates with the link to the storm summary, and then finally the type of weather advisory with a link to a relevant BTV NWS advisories map:

 

#5 – (8.2”) 11/26/2013-11/28/2013 – Winter Weather Advisory

#3 – (10.4”) 12/14/2013-12/16/2013 – WINTER STORM WARNING

#4 – (8.3”) 2/5/2014-2/6/2014 – WINTER STORM WARNING

#7 – (5.5”) 2/9/2014-2/11/2014 – No Advisories

#2 – (14.0”) 2/13/2014-2/14/2014 – WINTER STORM WARNING

#9 – (4.2”) 2/18/2014-2/19/2014 – No Advisories

#1 – (15.6”) 3/12/2014-3/13/2014 – WINTER STORM WARNING

#6 – (6.0”) 3/15/2014-3/16/2014 – No Advisories

#8 – (4.7”) 3/19/2014-3/21/2014 – Winter Weather Advisory

#10 – (4.2”) 4/15/2014-4/16/2014 – No Advisories

 

It’s possible that there were additional winter storm warnings this past season, but if snowfall was less than #10 on this list above, they presumably didn’t pan out, at least with respect to snow accumulations.  Anyway, I guess there was one Winter Storm Warning before February for the mid December storm, but it looks like that’s it.  And, only four winter storm warnings for the entire winter does seem pretty lean.  It would take a bit of work to go through all my storm summaries to find out which events actually had Winter Storm Warnings as I’ve done above, but I was able to quickly go through and find that on average here in the valley we get roughly eight storms of 6”+ per season.  Due to the time dependence required for warnings (6 inches averaged over a forecast zone in a 12 hour period), that probably doesn’t mean eight of them each season, but it might be close.  In any case, it was definitely a below average season for large storms and Winter Storm Warnings, and as you can see, eight of the top 10 storms occurred in February or later.

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mreaves

mreaves

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Feels like it's time to start a fall thread, wtf! Cool and cloudy, a few peeks of sun today. Morning low of 47.9, high of 65.2, currently 57.3/52.8.

I was thinking the same thing. I played golf up at Jay Peak today. Windy, cloudy and cool all day, it may have hit 55f. No precip though. Going to be pretty nasty in their amphitheater for the Lyle Lovett concert tonight.
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borderwx

borderwx

Posted
Posted

thanks PF, we are pretty lucky up here

 

We went to see Lyle last night,  he is a great showman with some awesome musicians.  He made the comment while talking about his trip from Ohio up here how beautiful our area is, at the time a shower was blowing through, the wind was blowing off hats,  and the band was cold.  He mentioned in Houston, where he grew up, they called this winter.  When asked what we thought the reply was cheers and "No mosquitos":).  He asked at one point if we could sit a little closer together to generate some heat:), fun night.

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J.Spin

J.Spin

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After the abysmal snowfall received during December and January, February 2014 was the month where the season finally started to turn the corner in Northern Vermont.  With 40.6” of total snowfall, it was actually just about as average a February as you can get for our location, but that was essentially the same amount of snow as was picked up in the entirety of the previous two months, so it felt like even more.  In part it was just refreshing to get out of the arctic air and into some substantial winter storms, and February didn’t waste too much time getting us there.  The month’s best stretch of storminess began on the 5th, with an 8.3” storm, which was followed up by a 5.5” storm, and then as mid-month approached, a 14.0” storm delivered February’s highest total from a storm cycle.  The stormiest part of the month continued through roughly the 18th with a more modest 4.2” event, before tapering down to smaller systems for the last third of the month.  So although it was fairly average for snowfall as Februarys go, February 2014 delivered 13 storms (tied with February 2011 for the most in any February), some nice snow, and served as a great set up for good snow conditions heading into what would be an excellent March.  Details on the 13 accumulating storms from February can be found via the links below:

 

  1. (1.4”) 2/1/2014-2/3/2014
  2. (0.5”) 2/4/2014
  3. (8.3”) 2/5/2014-2/6/2014
  4. (5.5”) 2/9/2014-2/11/2014
  5. (14.0”) 2/13/2014-2/14/2014
  6. (1.6”) 2/15/2014-2/16/2014
  7. (4.2”) 2/18/2014-2/19/2014
  8. (1.6”) 2/19/2014
  9. (0.3”) 2/20/2014-2/21/2014
  10. (1.1”) 2/24/2014
  11. (0.2”) 2/25/2014
  12. (0.2”) 2/26/2014
  13. (1.9”) 2/27/2014-2/28/2014
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powderfreak

powderfreak

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Very upslope feel to the precip this morning and today...pretty much nothing on radar at all, but small droplet sheet mist/rain has been occurring all the way into town on the east side.  Its fairly steady for the lack of returns on radar, like a soaking mist, lol.

 

This is probably the worst day of them all so far... 61/55 at noon, low clouds and damp.

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J.Spin

J.Spin

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Very upslope feel to the precip this morning and today...pretty much nothing on radar at all, but small droplet sheet mist/rain has been occurring all the way into town on the east side.  Its fairly steady for the lack of returns on radar, like a soaking mist, lol.

 

This is probably the worst day of them all so far... 61/55 at noon, low clouds and damp.

 

The precipitation has definitely had that upslope feel, and a look at radar earlier this morning fit as well – precipitation echoes were moving in from the west/northwest, hitting the mountains, and disappearing.  It’s definitely had the aura of one of the raw, early fall days, but we’re into the second half of August, so it’s not too surprising to see some influxes like that among the warmer, late summer days.

 

My first issue of Powder arrived a few days ago, which is also a sign of the season.  On that note, there’s an article on the Chic Chocs (pages 80-91) with some great images.  Here’s an excerpt that caught my attention:

 

“He said the Chic-Chocs usually get one major storm a month from December through April, with a few ‘streamers’ that fill in—lake effect-type blizzards that roll off the St. Lawrence.  The result is the best snow in the East, by far, and consistent powder on many aspects most of the winter.”

 

I guess they were careful in using the subjective “best snow” and not the objective “most snow” term, but “best snow in the East, by far” seems pretty bold when everything I’ve seen puts the snowfall in the 200”s.  The preservation up there is excellent due to latitude, and of course it’s all backcountry, so relative to areas with resorts, the pristine snow quality is not even comparable.  Even with great preservation though “one major storm a month from December through April, with a few ‘streamers’ that fill in” would mean a lot of stale snow, so I suspect they’re omitting a good number of important snowfall events.  It’s obvious that the skiing there is great, but in terms of solidifying the spectacular snow quality claims, what’s really needed is rigorous snowfall and conditions reporting like one gets from ski areas or mountain weather stations.  Without that, it sort of sits there with anecdotal reports as the typical “it’s remote, it’s mysterious, it’s north of where most people live, so it has to be fantastic”.  Being a numbers guy, I really want to see that hard data on snowfall, precipitation, and temperatures to back up any sensational claims.

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J.Spin

J.Spin

Posted
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Very upslope feel to the precip this morning and today...pretty much nothing on radar at all, but small droplet sheet mist/rain has been occurring all the way into town on the east side.  Its fairly steady for the lack of returns on radar, like a soaking mist, lol.

 

The precipitation has definitely had that upslope feel, and a look at radar earlier this morning fit as well – precipitation echoes were moving in from the west/northwest, hitting the mountains, and disappearing.  It’s definitely had the aura of one of the raw, early fall days, but we’re into the second half of August, so it’s not too surprising to see some influxes like that among the warmer, late summer days.

 

Although I didn’t grab a radar image yesterday, I noted that this morning’s imaging looks very similar; you can see the moisture running right into the wall of the mountains:

 

18AUG14A.gif

 

The precipitation broke up yesterday pretty quickly as the morning progressed, and in winter this is the classic look of where you wake up to those inches of fluff to freshen up the snow surfaces, then it tapers off to better visibility.

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tamarack

tamarack

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Over 70F now for the first time since Tuesday.

 

Might reach 70 today, 1st since Tuesday.  Five days with highs 64-67, not common but far from rare - 2008 had sub-70 from 5-9 with 2 days in the 50s, and 2006 (my coldest August here) stayed under 70 for the last 9 days of the month.  Might make a run at 40 tonight if all breaks right - low dew, no wind, no fog.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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Coldest night of the early season so far for the radiators coming up.

Eek is crying inside.

&& Short term /6 PM this evening through Wednesday/... as of 336 am EDT Monday...high pressure continues to build over the region tonight with clear skies and light winds setting the stage for excellent radiational cooling. Temperatures will run a bit chilly for middle-August with widespread 40s...to locally 30s in the Adirondacks around Saranac Lake and Lake Placid. With recent rainfall...good bet for some dense valley fog in the climatology favored locales as well which should inhibit development of any frost across the Adirondacks where temperatures may approach freezing.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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Yeah I've been trying to bottle it up, but I think I may be melting down now.

 

This weather combined with seeing mums at the lowes garden center is too much for mid August.

 

I won't rub it in... it is early for this stuff.  I've been good this summer, only a few snow pics posted ;)

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dendrite

dendrite

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Eh...it's not that early. We haven't had any high heat, but there hasn't been any significant cold shots either. I still haven't had any 40s since June although there's a good chance that changes tonight. My avg high is about 77-78F right now, so the highs are about 5-10F BN.

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J.Spin

J.Spin

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I won't rub it in... it is early for this stuff.  I've been good this summer, only a few snow pics posted ;)

 

Eh...it's not that early. We haven't had any high heat, but there hasn't been any significant cold shots either. I still haven't had any 40s since June although there's a good chance that changes tonight. My avg high is about 77-78F right now, so the highs are about 5-10F BN.

 

I was curious about where things stand relative to normals, so I checked the BTV climate data page and found the following data for some stations in this area through the 17th of the month:

 

BTV:  -0.3 F

MVL:  -0.9 F

MPV:  -2.4 F

 

Indeed MPV has been a touch on the cool side, and these past few days have been below average, but on the whole isn’t that essentially average, and August so far just been “business” (LOL) as usual for NNE?  A look at the daily temperature averages for Morrisville indicates that lows should be falling into the 40s F anyway to close out the month.  It’s the reason August and the Aug/Sep/Oct quarter in general can be such a great time of the year, as I mentioned in my post at the end of July.  If one really looks at the averages, I still contend that the “dog days of August” scenario is sort of nonsense around here.  Clearly, having a hot stretch is possible, as Tamarack noted in his earlier post; but for the bulk of August to have 80s and 90s F “dog days” highs in much of NNE – that’s got to mean huge positive departures. 

 

Don’t many (most?) of us choose to live in New England because of the great Dfb “mild to warm” summer subtype vs. the Dfa “hot or very warm” summer subtype or even Cfa “subtropical” climate areas found farther south?  I know there have been discussions this summer about the usual “seasons in season” or whatever, and not enough heat, but if the temperature averages are within a couple degrees of normal, isn’t that what one is getting?  Forget NNE, even most of SNE is two climate zones removed from “subtropical”, so expecting a preponderance of high heat and dew points/low temperatures in the 70s F seems like a real long shot.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

We haven't had many strong August cold shots recently. 2006 and 2007 had a couple of good ones around this time period. My data...

 

2006

08/09 77.9/50.7

08/10 78.6/51.2

08/11 70.4/50.7

08/12 70.3/45.2

08/13 71.5/44.9

08/14 79.5/45.8

 

2007

08/18 66.3/47.5

08/19 67.2/45.2

08/20 68.2/43.6

08/21 68.3/43.7

08/22 69.4/39.3

08/23 68.6/56.7

 

That 2007 shot was impressive and is my only Aug 30s here since 2006.

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