Chicago Storm Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Picked up 0.73" with the storms that rolled in just after midnight. That bumps us up to 7.42" for the month too. I was talking to a farmer about the corn crop yesterday, and he was astounded at how fast the corn was growing. He said it's been growing at 4" per day for the past few weeks, and will be ready to tassel in the next week or two. This is ahead of schedule, which is pretty damn impressive given such a late start to the growing season. There have been a few fields that have been impacted by some standing water, but even with the 7"+ rain so far this month most of the water actually soaked in pretty nicely in most areas. Would have to think the warm days/night and a good amount of sun/dry time has helped offset the heavy rain totals. I'm sure the outcome would be different if it had been cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Would have to think the warm days/night and a good amount of sun/dry time has helped offset the heavy rain totals. I'm sure the outcome would be different if it had been cooler. Yeah that definitely helped. Today's 4-6" that fell over the area may sting a little however. Hopefully since the crop is far enough along if there's any standing water for a short amount of time it won't impact things too negatively. Of course the fields that will go under water near the flooding rivers will be a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 prolly just extend this one as it might be needed over the next 36 hours....urbanized action looks troublesome later today/tonight for Chi-metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Champaign getting it today. And the airport looks to be on the low side... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Champaign getting it today. And the airport looks to be on the low side... Screen Shot 2014-07-12 at 12.39.51 PM.png 3+ on west side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 12, 2014 Author Share Posted July 12, 2014 LOT goes with area wide flood watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 1-2" now in the grids for tonight. Not exactly sure where all that water is gonna go. Could get ugly. Prospects for the E-W training still look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 I know it's fairly early in the game....but cells seem to be firing a good 30 to 40 miles south of recent guidance (for now)....the train may shift south a bit compared to guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 12, 2014 Author Share Posted July 12, 2014 I know it's fairly early in the game....but cells seem to be firing a good 30 to 40 miles south of recent guidance (for now)....the train may shift south a bit compared to guidance south has always been the way to go but the heaviest fell south overnight so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 I know it's fairly early in the game....but cells seem to be firing a good 30 to 40 miles south of recent guidance (for now)....the train may shift south a bit compared to guidance I'm really hoping so. We've had over 3" in the last week here, low spots are really mushy still. Thus far, we haven't had any flooding issues (had 20" in the lower level in May!) and I really don't want to deal with it again. I have redone the sump with two 3/4HP pumps, the main on a pressure switch with another on a float switch a bit higher than the top of the main in case it gets overwhelmed. Our sump pit can get a heck of a lot of water coming in it when it rains heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Best of luck Boog's! PWAT's exploding over southern Iowa (as forecasted) .... 2.1+ with a solid 850 feed right into N IL now hopefully the channel can set up north of the those that got hammered this morning alek.....but it's gonna be tight...not a lot of wiggle room...and unfortunately, the wiggle room takes it right into the heart of the metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 WPC throwing a bone to the nudge south.... MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0192NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD620 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SOUTHEAST NE...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IA...FARNORTHERN MO...CENTRAL/NORTHERN IL...EXTREME SOUTHEAST WICONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLEVALID 122210Z - 130215ZSUMMARY...CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE ANDINTENSITY THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER THE MIDWEST. POTENTIAL FORCELL-MERGERS AND TRAINING CONVECTION WILL HEIGHTEN THE FLASH FLOODPOTENTIAL.DISCUSSION...THE LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANDING CU/TCUFIELD IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A SYNOPTIC SCALE COLDFRONT...AND AHEAD OF LARGER SCALE HEIGHT FALLS IMPINGING ON THEUPPER MIDWEST FROM SRN CANADA. THE BOUNDARY LYR IS VERY WARM ANDUNSTABLE WITH SBCAPE VALUES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OF 4000 J/KGTO 4500 J/KG. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLYSTEEP...BUT STRONGER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE FRONTCOUPLED WITH IMPROVING LARGER SCALE ASCENT ALOFT SHOULD BE ENOUGHTO ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND IN A LINEAR FASHIONSW/NE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.THE CONVECTIVE MODE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SBCAPE VALUES ANDEFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35 TO 45 KTS SHOULD SUPPORT ANINCREASE IN MULTI-CELLULAR AND SUPER-CELLULAR CONVECTION THE NEXTCOUPLE OF HOURS. THE ENVIRONMENT THIS EVENING WILL INITIALLY FAVORCELL-MERGERS...BUT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FORTRAINING CONVECTION...ESP AFTER 00Z GIVEN THE MEAN LAYER FLOWPARALLELING THE COLD FRONT...AND WITH THE NOSE OF A VERY MOIST 40KT SWLY LOW LVL JET ARRIVING BY AROUND 00Z.ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS STRONGLYSUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT FEWHOURS...WITH A HEIGHTENED RISK OF TRAINING CONVECTIVE LINESEGMENTS AFTER 00Z.FFG VALUES ARE LOCALLY RATHER LOW...AND WITH PWATS EXPECTED TOINCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES THIS EVENING...RAINFALL RATES OVER 2INCHES/HR WILL BE EXPECTED. THIS COUPLED WITH POTENTIAL FORTRAINING CONVECTIVE BANDS WILL ELEVATE THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 LOT update as well.... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL511 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...510 PM CDTSTORMS ARE INITIATING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN IA AND HAVEPROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A TORNADO WATCH THAT EXTENDS AS FAR EASTAS NORTHWEST IL. LATEST HAND SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A POOL OF75+ DEW POINTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST IA INTO CENTRAL IL ADVANCINGNORTHWARD WITH MANY SURFACE OBS IN THIS AREA INDICATINGGUSTINESS. AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS A WARM FRONT WITH STRONGMOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS INCHING NORTHWARD NEAR INTERSTATE 88AHEAD OF A 1012MB SFC LOW IN CENTRAL IA. SUCH A SETUP OF A SLOWINGNORTHWARD-MOVING WARM FRONT AHEAD OF A NOT-TOO-STRONG LOW PRESSUREWITH GOOD REPLENISHING MOISTURE REALLY SPELLS TROUBLE FOR HEAVYRAINFALL TONIGHT WITHIN THE REGION. MOST FAVORED THIS EVE WOULD BEALONG AND IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THIS WARM FRONTAL AXIS...SO THENORTHERN FORECAST AREA INCLUDING ROCKFORD. AS CONVECTIONEVOLVES/EXPANDS EASTWARD THROUGH MID-LATE EVENING...SOMESOUTHWARD PROGRESSION IS THEN LIKELY INTO OVERNIGHT. SO THE ENTIREAREA REMAINS UNDER AN INCREASING RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLEOF FLASH FLOODING...WHICH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUPPORT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 12, 2014 Author Share Posted July 12, 2014 LOT still favoring northern forecast area but given current convection, i just don't see it but i'm wrong like all the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 RECORD EVENT REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI440 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2014...RECORD DAILY PRECIPITATION AMOUNT BROKEN AT LA CROSSEWISCONSIN...AS OF 4 PM...THE LA CROSSE AIRPORT HAS RECEIVED 2.74 INCHES OFPRECIPITATION TODAY. THIS BROKE THE PREVIOUS DAILY RECORDPRECIPITATION OF 2.65 INCHES SET IN 1953. The good stuff! we need it *rollseyes* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 WPC throwing a bone to the nudge south.... mcd0192.gif The outline area is only further south because of another md they issued earlier for areas north of this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 The atmosphere is definitely juiced up. Full text for the flash flood watch. FLOOD WATCHNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL321 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-130430-/O.NEW.KLOT.FF.A.0003.140713T0000Z-140713T1800Z//00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE IL-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-DUPAGE-COOK-LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-IROQUOIS-FORD-LAKE IN-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCKFORD...BELVIDERE...WOODSTOCK...WAUKEGAN...OREGON...DIXON...DEKALB...AURORA...WHEATON...CHICAGO...OTTAWA...OSWEGO...MORRIS...JOLIET...KANKAKEE...PONTIAC...WATSEKA...PAXTON...GARY...VALPARAISO...MOROCCO...RENSSELAER...FOWLER321 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014 /421 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014/...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ THISEVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN ILLINOIS...BOONE...COOK...DE KALB...DUPAGE...FORD...GRUNDY...IROQUOIS...KANE...KANKAKEE...KENDALL...LA SALLE...LAKE IL...LEE...LIVINGSTON...MCHENRY...OGLE...WILL AND WINNEBAGO. IN INDIANA...BENTON...JASPER...LAKE IN...NEWTON AND PORTER.* FROM 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.* A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH THROUGH THEWARNING AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE STORMS WILL PRODUCEHEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL TOTALS REACHING 1 TO 2 INCHES WITHLOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS BY SUNDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY ALONG THEILLINOIS WISCONSIN STATE LINE. IN ADDITION...AREAS FROM SOUTHERNCOOK COUNTY THROUGH PONTIAC AND GIBSON CITY RECEIVED 3 TO 4INCHES OF RAIN THIS MORNING. THESE AREAS WILL BE VERYSUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING. Skilling posted some of these 4km NAM simulated radar graphics earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 The outline area is only further south because of another md they issued earlier for areas north of this one I see what you're saying. The quote below was odd to read from the disco you mentioned considering the one I posted came out just a few minutes later.... EDIT: nevermind....the disco you mentioned was from over 2 hours ago....who know's....we'll see THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS MODELS TEND TO HAVE A SOMEWHAT BETTER HANDLE FOR THE TIME BEING ON THE EXPECTED AXIS OF CONVECTION...WITH THE 12Z NAM...12Z ARW AND 12Z NMMB ALL LIKELY TOO FAR SOUTH AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 PWAT's breaching 2.2 now in southern iowa per 23Z meso analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 13, 2014 Author Share Posted July 13, 2014 IDK, setup doesn't scream heavy rain to me right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 IDK, setup doesn't scream heavy rain to me right now LLJ should begin kicking in over the next few hours (RAP has a 925-850mb winds of 40-45kts developing after Midnight here). That's going to help with getting more of those water-logged boomers to pop up, despite the somewhat marginal instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 13, 2014 Author Share Posted July 13, 2014 LLJ should begin kicking in over the next few hours (RAP has a 925-850mb winds of 40-45kts developing after Midnight here). That's going to help with getting more of those water-logged boomers to pop up, despite the somewhat marginal instability. of course but the warm front isn't going to get hung up like i thought earlier…convection will be transient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 of course but the warm front isn't going to get hung up like i thought earlier…convection will be transient That's true. Even then, with the extreme PWATS in place, it won't take much to have intermittent flash flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 Rainfall rates of 1-2" per hour with those storm rolling into NW IL. Heavy corridor or rain is going to lay down between MKX and RAC. Edit: Racine County is going to pick up a good deal of rain in the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0194NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD955 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST MO...SOUTHEAST IA...CENTRAL/NORTHERNIL...SOUTHEAST WI...SOUTHWEST MI...NORTHWEST INCONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELYVALID 130150Z - 130620ZSUMMARY...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND REMAIN WELLORGANIZED WHILE ADVANCING EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST THE NEXT FEWHOURS. POTENTIAL FOR CELL-MERGERS AND TRAINING CONVECTION WILLSUSTAIN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT.DISCUSSION...THE LATEST IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS MULTIPLE LINEAR BANDSOF STRONG COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION AND A FEW SUPERCELLS EXTENDINGFROM SERN IA NEWD ACROSS NRN IL AND INTO SERN WI AS A COLD FRONTADVANCES SEWD INTO THE REGION. THE ACTIVITY IS INTERACTING WITH AMODERATELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LYR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MUCAPEVALUES OF 2000 J/KG TO 3000 J/KG...ALONG WITH A SWLY LOW LEVEL JETOF 40 TO 50 KTS WHICH IS HELPING TO TRANSPORT VERY MOIST AIR NEWDAHEAD OF THE FRONT. IN FACT...THE LATEST THE GOES-SOUNDER AND GPSDERIVED PWATS SHOW A POOL OF 2 INCH PWATS OVER CNTRL/SERN IA ANDINTO NWRN IL ATTM.ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS STRONGLYSUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEWHOURS...EXTENDING DEEPER INTO CNTRL/NRN IL...SERN WI...SWRN LWR MIAND EVENTUALLY NWRN IN BY 06Z IF NOT SOONER. THE SUSTAINABILITY OFTHE CONVECTION WILL BE HIGHLY DRIVEN BY AN INCREASING SWLY LOW LVLJET OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING HEIGHTFALLS ASSOC WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPR TROUGH OVER THE UPR MIDWEST.GLOBAL MODELS SUPPORT 2 INCH PWATS AND OVER 50 KTS OF LOW LVL JETOVERNIGHT PROVIDING RATHER STRONG ALBEIT SOMEWHAT ELEVATEDTHERMODYNAMICS. RAINFALL RATES SHOULD REMAIN HIGH AT UP TO 2INCHES/HR AND WITH THE EXPECTATION OF ADDITIONAL CELL-MERGERS ANDCELL TRAINING...THERE WILL REMAIN AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR FLASHFLOODING.FFG VALUES ARE LOCALLY RATHER LOW...ESP NEAR AND SOUTH OFKORD...SO THIS WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. WILLCONTINUE TO MONITOR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 CAPE of 3000 at this hour is noteworthy! That south side of Chicago does not need another round of heavy rain after what they got this morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 I see the line on that MD now goes about right over the top of me near FNT. However, last I checked the P&C, it's down to 1/4" to 1/2" overnight, from 3/4" to 1" earlier tonight. That'll work for me. I guess we'll see what plays out over the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 Grand Rapids area looks to be getting the training t'storms right now. Looks like an easy 2"+ of rain along that corridor, based on what's fallen over Lake Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 Grand Rapids area looks to be getting the training t'storms right now. Looks like an easy 2"+ of rain along that corridor, based on what's fallen over Lake Michigan. Yeah, I've been watching that. I'm hoping the worst keeps trending to the NE, toward the Bay, but at least some of that will come through FNT, I'm just hoping for not much over an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 Heavy rain fail here. Grand total - 0.11" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.