Jebman Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 I was wondering, Are we in an El Nino or not? This summer seems a bit warmish and relatively dry for a Nino. Or is it normal for Nino summers in the Mid Atlantic to be warmer and drier than normal? This has been one fairly warm June. It hit 97 today with a dewpoint of 74. Its not even summer yet lol. Thanks in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 I'm not a met, and it's not yet officially an El Nino Jeb NINO 3.4 was only +.4C as of last reading on this link and you need +.5C to be at a weak level and then it has to last at or above that level for 5 tri-monthly numbers http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for NINA/NINO tri-monthly numbers here: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 I'm not a met either but I agree with you, I feel like we're in a La Nina even though we aren't. Been hot and dry IMBY. Even the death ridge is showing up now. I didn't think this summer would be like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 It's been dry? I don't know I feel like it's been pretty wet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 It's been dry? I don't know I feel like it's been pretty wet... Maybe where you live. Down here its been pretty dry other than the June 10-12 period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 There are some isolated dry areas, but most of the metro areas have a surplus right now. It's been dry? I don't know I feel like it's been pretty wet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 I'm not a met, and it's not yet officially an El Nino Jeb NINO 3.4 was only +.4C as of last reading on this link and you need +.5C to be at a weak level and then it has to last at or above that level for 5 tri-monthly numbers http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for NINA/NINO tri-monthly numbers here: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml We won't know when/if it technically starts for a long time. In theory, we could have been in a Nino since May if the May-June-July number is +0.5 and it continues going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 We won't know when/if it technically starts for a long time. In theory, we could have been in a Nino since May if the May-June-July number is +0.5 and it continues going forward. Exactly, the beginning of an enso event is determined retroactively. Last year was a false signal. This year seems much more promising. We'll see where we are in September. I think Jeb is thinking too locally about precip. In the last 30 days the vast majority of the area is AOA normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 I'm not a met either but I agree with you, I feel like we're in a La Nina even though we aren't. Been hot and dry IMBY. Even the death ridge is showing up now. I didn't think this summer would be like this. We had a cool spring, so I think global warming is bunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Exactly, the beginning of an enso event is determined retroactively. Last year was a false signal. This year seems much more promising. We'll see where we are in September. I think Jeb is thinking too locally about precip. In the last 30 days the vast majority of the area is AOA normal. Over 60 days that is very true, in the last month however the precip has been spottier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Over 60 days that is very true, in the last month however the precip has been spottier. Ah, nice map. I was looking at a lower resolution NE regional earlier so it was more broad brushed. Where do you pull those? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 We are not in a defined El Nino event yet, but the MEI has risen to about 0.9 (an indicator of an El Nino event on the way). The subsurface indications suggest a full on El Nino coming soon, but the atmospheric variables in the equatorial pacific have not fully behaved yet. What's concerning for our area is that the bulk of the pacific warmth has been in the eastern regions of ENSO. That type of behavior is usually indicative of an eastern US ridge. We need the "3.4 ENSO" region to warm up quickly ala 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 We are not in a defined El Nino event yet, but the MEI has risen to about 0.9 (an indicator of an El Nino event on the way). The subsurface indications suggest a full on El Nino coming soon, but the atmospheric variables in the equatorial pacific have not fully behaved yet. What's concerning for our area is that the bulk of the pacific warmth has been in the eastern regions of ENSO. That type of behavior is usually indicative of an eastern US ridge. We need the "3.4 ENSO" region to warm up quickly ala 2009. Quicker warm up = better winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Ah, nice map. I was looking at a lower resolution NE regional earlier so it was more broad brushed. Where do you pull those? http://water.weather.gov/precip/index.php?location_type=wfo&location_name=LWX If you drill down to the LWX forecast area you can get the map above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Quicker warm up = better winter? Not really, what we need is region 3.4 to be the center of the warmest anomalies. You see it referenced as a "west based" nino event on the boards. There are 3 general nino configurations. East based (least desireable), basin wide (not optimal but ok), and west based (best chance for snow on the east coast). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Quicker warm up = better winter? Not necessarily, we still need the NAO to behave. But central to west pacific based "3.4" El Ninos are usually associated with an active southern jet stream near our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Over 60 days that is very true, in the last month however the precip has been spottier. precip.JPG Thanks for posting that map- you can see how much less southern MD has gotten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Not really, what we need is region 3.4 to be the center of the warmest anomalies. You see it referenced as a "west based" nino event on the boards. There are 3 general nino configurations. East based (least desireable), basin wide (not optimal but ok), and west based (best chance for snow on the east coast). Oooh...I see. Guess I need to read the ENSO thread more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted June 19, 2014 Share Posted June 19, 2014 Over 60 days that is very true, in the last month however the precip has been spottier. precip.JPG Leesburg bullseye...first time ever with rain!!! I've jinxed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Can somebody give me a couple of example years for east based Niños? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.