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June 16-25 Severe threat


snowlover2

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Based on radar, officially though pea size hail are the only verified reports so far.  Someone from Menomonee Falls estimated golf ball size hail, but I'd say for now that is an exaggeration.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI  1135 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014     .TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON     .DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.                ..REMARKS..    1131 PM     HAIL             2 NW MILLER PARK        43.05N 88.00W   06/17/2014  M1.25 INCH       MILWAUKEE          WI   AMATEUR RADIO     
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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI  1135 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014     .TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON     .DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.                ..REMARKS..    1131 PM     HAIL             2 NW MILLER PARK        43.05N 88.00W   06/17/2014  M1.25 INCH       MILWAUKEE          WI   AMATEUR RADIO     

 

Sorry, I was going off the warning text update.  That's pretty much my backyard lol.  Definitely some small hail here, guess it was over an inch in diameter.  The rain was in sheets, so difficult to even spot the hail.

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I wonder if the storms over Lake Michigan will stay together enough to get to the FNT area? The other cells that came up from IL/IN seem to have pretty much disintegrated. I'm hoping they don't make it because we have to finish staining our deck.

 

Nothing major at all in IL. Nothing at all in Chicago; Thunderstorm watch was cancelled. Another bust.

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Nothing major at all in IL. Nothing at all in Chicago; Thunderstorm watch was cancelled. Another bust.

It was.. but I'm looking at the rain aspect of the cells presently west of GRR... If they hold together, it'll likely rain in FNT, unless they get steered north or south before they get this far (IF they do).

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New day 1

 

 

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0110 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...AND SRN HIGH PLAINS EWD THROUGH THE UPPER
MS VALLEY...SRN GREAT LAKES...OH VALLEY TO PA/NRN MD...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THROUGH THE
MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES EASTWARD INTO PENNSYLVANIA.
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO
WEST TEXAS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA.

...SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER ERN ID/WRN MT PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS IT MOVES
NNE TOWARD THE NRN MT BORDER NEAR SRN ALBERTA AND SWRN SASKATCHEWAN.
AS THIS OCCURS...A MIDLEVEL IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NEWD INTO
THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH...NOW
MOVING EWD THROUGH NV...WILL REACH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY 19/00Z
AND THEN TRACK ACROSS NEB TO THE ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN BY 12Z THU.
MEANWHILE...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ESEWD FROM
WI/LOWER MI REGION AND WEAKEN AS IT REACHES NY WITHIN THE BASE OF
TROUGH IN THE NORTHEAST STATES. WEAKER IMPULSES ARE EXPECTED TO
TRACK ESEWD THROUGH THE MIDWEST...OH VALLEY TO PA REGION.

AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH
TOWARD SRN ALBERTA...WHILE A SECOND LOW TRACKS NEWD INTO CENTRAL SD
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN INTO ERN SD BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
A WARM FRONT ADVANCING NEWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL BE A FOCUS FOR
TSTMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE ERN
EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM FAR SRN MN THROUGH
SRN WI...SRN LOWER MI AND REMNANT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL
EACH FOCUS NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT TODAY FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO
THE OH VALLEY. EVEN FARTHER EAST...EFFECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ATTENDANT TO A BAND OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND TO PA
SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.

...ND/SD/NEB TO UPPER MS VALLEY...
A VERY MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT RESIDING OVER IA/ERN NEB
WILL ADVECT NWWD INTO THE DAKOTAS AS SELY LOW LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THE DAY FROM IA/WRN MN INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. SURFACE
HEATING MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED INITIALLY ACROSS NRN SD AND ND DUE
TO CLOUD DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION PRECEDING THE START OF DAY 1.
HOWEVER...THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE RETURN BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EVEN SOME SURFACE HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN
A MODERATE TO VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS INVOF THE WARM FRONT IN THE
DAKOTAS. THIS COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KT WILL
SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING AND
THEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS ASCENT WITH THE LEAD IMPULSE MOVES
ACROSS THIS REGION. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE INCLUDING A
FEW TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL.

A STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
ERN DAKOTAS AND MN THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT COMBINED WITH VERY
STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY RESIDING OVER THE MID MO VALLEY INTO
ERN SD/SRN MN WILL PROMOTE UPSCALE GROWTH OF TSTMS INTO ONE OR MORE
MCS/S ADVANCING EWD. THESE MCS/S SHOULD TRACK FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO
THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE PRIMARY
THREATS.

ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING ACROSS NEB...FROM WEST TO
EAST. THIS POTENTIAL IS FORECAST AS THE STRONGER NV SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NEB AFTER 19/00Z IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ. RESIDUAL MODERATE-VERY STRONG INSTABILITY
ACROSS THIS AREA COULD SUPPORT A LINE OF STORMS MOVING ENEWD WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS.

...MIDWEST/SRN GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY TO PA/NRN MD...
ONE OR MORE MCS/S SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z FROM PARTS OF THE UPPER
MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A VERY MOIST AND MODERATE-VERY
STRONG INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS CORRIDOR TODAY.
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KT ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE SYNOPTIC
BOUNDARY AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SUGGEST LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS WELL AS A THREAT FOR HAIL.

 

 

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You heard a clap of thunder last night. You've had more action than me.

 

I've forgotten what thunder sounds like. 

 

I don't think we've even had a decent garden variety thunderstorm here all year. Brutally boring. And the beat goes on... 

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Most of Iowa was a bust for severe overnight.  The storms got started very late and the line couldn't maintain much strength.  It fizzled out as it reached Cedar Rapids.  Perhaps the capping is too strong over here.

 

 

 

yeah, it's been stout over here

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The segment of that line headed towards MKE is gonna steal the show. Another swing and a miss imby. Lame.

 

Yeah that segment is bowing out now. 

 

Warning now extended into the western suburbs.

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