Nelson Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 EF3 tornado confirmed in Verona, WI and I believe that was unwarned. https://twitter.com/NWSMKX/status/478999990246068224 It wasn't warned initially but it did eventually get warned. I live about 5 miles north of the suspected track and I was watching it on radar. I recall looking the BV and SRV images thinking they should warn it about 15 minutes before they did but they did eventually warn it. Would have liked to see them do it sooner though. It was not warned as it was directly south of us. Interestingly, things were rather muted here. Lots of rain and thunder but the winds were not impressive from what I could see. We are in a pretty heavily wooded area so it may have just been hard to tell. Either way, I was surprised to wake up to the damage reports. I suspected they may find that a tor touched down but would not have guessed an EF3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CHI_Weather Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Looks like Chicago will get in the action on Wednesday morning around 9-10 am; maybe a squall line. But not sure as I did a quick scan on my phone with the weather channels weather radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Yep, starting to look a little agitated. Hadn't checked radar in a few hours - was a little surprised to see how bare it is in the midwest... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Lack of severe today has been disappointing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 p sure i heard a dull rumble, nothing on radar but mini tower on visible this was thunder, tower went overhead and pushed north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 this was thunder, tower went overhead and pushed north. Looks like a cell up around Morton Grove trying to take off. May skirt just north of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Looks like a cell up around Morton Grove trying to take off. May skirt just north of you. it literally went up over my head and pushed north, along with my storm chances for the rest of the night On to tomorrow. FWIW some of the early morning HRRR runs did well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Lack of severe today has been disappointing But not unexpected. You guys in Ohio still have a shot tomorrow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 But not unexpected. You guys in Ohio still have a shot tomorrow though. Lol you do realize the boundary is already retreating back north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Couple small cells moving across RFD right now. CU just to my south. MKX disco: 000FXUS63 KMKX 180120AFDMKXAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI820 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014.UPDATE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING DEEPENING CONVECTIONBEGINNING TO OCCUR ACROSS NCNTRAL IA INTO SE MN AND WC WI. THISDEEPENING ASCENT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.THE EVENING RAOB OUT OF KDVN SHOWS A STRONG CAP JUST BELOW 700MBWHICH IS LIMITING CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. THAT CAP IS WEAKER TOTHE NORTH AND IS WHY WE/RE SEEING THE FIRST CONVECTION UP AROUNDWAUSAU. A DECENT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER NEB WILL EVENTUALLYROLL ACROSS WISCONSIN TONIGHT. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL ENHANCE THEDEEP CONVECTION AND LIKELY WIPE OUT THE INVERSION. THE SCENARIO WEEXPECT FOR TONIGHT IS FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MNOR FAR NE IA...THEN ROLL EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS WITH THE MAINTHREAT BY THE TIME IT GETS HERE BEING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.LIKE LAST NIGHT...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN SHOWSHOULD BE FROM JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT...THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT.TORRENTIAL RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED AND COUPLED WITH SATURATEDCONDITIONS FROM LAST NIGHT/S RAINFALL...THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT HASINCREASED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Lol you do realize the boundary is already retreating back north? Dewpoints and instability have actually dropped within the last few hours here, which tells me the front actually moved to the south for us locally. The SPC mesoanalysis reflects this, as the winds have flipped to the WNW. Now how fast it retreats back north of us (if it does at all to put us in line for severe weather) will depend on how the convection upstream behaves. Most of the models keep the instability axis just to our SW tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Storm north of Maquoketa IA over 50k ft now. The evolution from the stuff out west oughta be interesting. Still one huge sup slowly digging almost due south. Still no sign of anything up in northern IA/southern MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Dewpoints and instability have actually dropped within the last few hours here, which tells me the front actually moved to the south for us locally. The SPC mesoanalysis reflects this, as the winds have flipped to the WNW. Now how fast it retreats back north of us (if it does at all to put us in line for severe weather) will depend on how the convection upstream behaves. Most of the models keep the instability axis just to our SW tomorrow. Yes instability dropped off here but just south of here at the border there is ample instability, it won't take much for the boundary to rise back to the north especially since it is already retreating back on the west side of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 That cell in EC Iowa might be one to watch if it strengthens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Lightning popping in the blah cell to my northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 New mesoscale disco says chance of WW for S.WI and N.IL is 60% due to increasing severe threat tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 That supercell south of DBQ is up to 61kft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 That supercell south of DBQ is up to 61kft. Severe warned now. It looked to have some weak rotation for a scan as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 18, 2014 Author Share Posted June 18, 2014 New watch up across northern IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Svr watch just issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 We got brushed by two different developing cells today, but only enough to wet the surface even though the downpours were extreme for about one or two minutes each. We need some real rain here since locally it is very dry right now, so I'm not hoping for any severe weather per se, but any downpours are appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Just realized that if the Verona tornado remained on course and hadn't lifted before entering Madison, it would've passed right where my sister used to live give or take a block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Cell now warned in Walworth County, WI. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGWIC059-101-127-180400-/O.NEW.KMKX.SV.W.0053.140618T0321Z-140618T0400Z/BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI1021 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...SOUTHWESTERN RACINE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...WEST CENTRAL KENOSHA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...CENTRAL WALWORTH COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...* UNTIL 1100 PM CDT* AT 1021 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER DELAVANLAKE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGETO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Cell now warned in Walworth County, WI.Hmmm ... worth a drive?Check that - worth a look out the door as it's gettin late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 1005 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 957 PM CDT STILL NOT A TON OF CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION OVERNIGHT. DIFFUSE WARM FRONT STRETCHES FROM NEAR CHICAGO WHERE IT IS CONJOINED WITH A LAKE BREEZE WEST TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. AREA 88D VWPS SHOW 25-30KT LOW LEVEL JET ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAA RESULTING IN ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING FROM EAST CENTRAL IOWA EAST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. HAVE BEEN STARING AT SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING AND CANNOT FIND ANY IDENTIFIABLE SHORTWAVE OR FEATURE TO REALLY FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS FAR EAST OVERNIGHT WITH AT LEAST A SOMEWHAT DISTINGUISHABLE SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA. EVENING ROABS SHOWED PRESENCE OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER TOP A VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS WITH POTENTIALLY EXPLOSIVE INSTABILITY...BUT WITH FORMIDABLE CAPPING INVERSION AT THE BASE OF THE EML. AS LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES WOULD EXPECT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT TO INCREASE AND INSTABILITY RESPECTABLE SHEAR THE POTENTIAL WOULD EXIST FOR LARGE HAIL INITIALLY WITH THREAT TRANSITIONING MORE TOWARD DAMAGING WIND IF COLD POOL AND ASSOCIATED MCS WERE TO ORGANIZE. REALLY NOT SEEING ANY CLEAR SIGNALS WHERE MCS WILL ORGANIZE YET...BUT WHEN/IF ONE DOES THE LARGE DCAPE VALUES AND SHEAR WOULD FAVOR COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT WITH BOTH FORWARD PROPAGATING AND UPWIND PROPAGATING CONVECTION. THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT WOULD BE CONFINED MORE TOWARD THE FORWARD PROPAGATING PORTION OF THE MCS WITH UPSTREAM INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AND CORFIDI VECTORS FAVORING UPWIND OR BACKWARD PROPAGATION OF THE TRAILING CONVECTION AND A POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IN HOW THINGS UNFOLD IS TOO LOW TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT OTHER THAN LACK OF CLEARLY DEFINED SHORTWAVE THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR FLASH FLOODING. ONLY REAL CHANGE TO GOING FORECAST IS TO TWEAK POPS TO FOCUS EVEN MORE ON OUR NORTHERN CWA NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WITH THE BEST SHOT OF ANYTHING SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT HINGING ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG COLD POOL. BUT STRONGER CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD GENERALLY LIMIT SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION. IZZI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Hmmm ... worth a drive? Wouldn't want to drive into the hail part of the storm during the night! I can see some lightning off that direction from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Pretty solid light show to the north right now. Not much in the way of thunder but it still makes for a pretty evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 That Walworth county WI cell is showing some rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Pretty nice developing storm just to my southwest, I was wondering if the Kettle Moraine terrain might have a say in enhancing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 That Walworth county WI cell is showing some rotation. Made the drive and between Hebron and Richmond. Stuck at freight train crossing with base to my northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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