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June 16-25 Severe threat


snowlover2

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pretty cool to see the boundary lifting back north on vis sat with the cu field almost like propagating. 

 

Liking our chances later 

I don't.

 

LLJ-ish action will mostly stay north and any NE/IA/MN MCS will weaken before it gets here, sort of like last night.

 

Tomorrow will be the day for anything interesting.

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pretty cool to see the boundary lifting back north on vis sat with the cu field almost like propagating. 

 

Liking our chances later 

 

 

I don't.

 

LLJ-ish action will mostly stay north and any NE/IA/MN MCS will weaken before it gets here, sort of like last night.

 

Tomorrow will be the day for anything interesting.

 

 

The Illinois brothers at odds.  :popcorn:

 

Although CIN appears to be negligible, still not see much of an upswing in development in the past 2-3 hours in the IL/IN area that had the MCD so anything there may tend to remain isolated.

SBCAPE up to 5000 J/kg in IL per mesoanalysis.

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The Verona ef3 was handled horribly. 5 miles from our house. was up late waiting for the storms to roll through...(weather radio was broken and large trees in the yard that with a wind can easily hit the house.) Could see the line start to spin up well in advance of the tornado warning. Actually headed to the basement 5 minutes before the warning cause I didn't like the looks of it of it, and being nighttime it was not a time to take chances. Here is a link to some video of the damage close by me.

 Damage

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So with the Platteville EF2 and the Verona EF3, it's the first time in 20 years (August 27, 1994) that Wisconsin has had 2 or more nocturnal EF2+ tornadoes in the same night (even if not on the same calendar day).  For purposes of this post, I am defining nocturnal as 03z-12z.  With the newly added Madison EF2, I'm checking again to find the last time there were 3.

 

Edit:  there were 3 on May 30, 1985

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Good Izzi write-up about this evening into tonight:

 

 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
613 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
613 PM CDT

PSUEDO WARM FRONT/REMANENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE CWA AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP NOW WITH ITS PROGRESS
DEPICTED QUITE NICELY IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. LAKE BREEZE
HAS DEVELOPED AND IS PUSHING INLAND AND MAY RETARD THE NORTHWARD
ADVANCE OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER NE IL SOME THIS EVENING.
OBSERVATIONS FROM OUR PARKING LOT AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
HAVE SHOWN SOME SLIGHTLY MORE IMPRESSIVE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THE CUMULUS DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...HOWEVER ACARS
SOUNDINGS FROM OUR AREA FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS HAVE SHOWED NO
APPRECIABLE COOLING ALOFT OF THE CAPPING WARM LAYER WHICH PEAKS
VERY NEAR 700MB. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES DEPICT A WEAK SHORTWAVE NEAR
THE MS RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF
THIS WAVE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...BUT ITS CERTAINLY NOTHING
PRONOUNCED OR TERRIBLY WELL DEFINED. THE FORCING WITH THIS WAVE
WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING AND THINK THE
WINDOW FOR SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE NORTHWARD ADVANCING
BOUNDARY WILL BE CLOSING SOON. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE COMPOSITE LAKE BREEZE/PSUEDO WARM FRONT AND SLIGHTLY
WEAKER CAPPING WITH EASTWARD EXTENT MEANS THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR
ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WOULD BE
OVER NE IL AND NW INDIANA AND WILL REFLECT THIS IN UPDATED POP
GRIDS.

AS THE SUBTLE WAVE MOVES EAST COULD SEE SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE
STRENGTHEN THE CAPPING INVERSION AND DELAY THE PROCESS OF WAA
CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS EVENING LOCALLY. THOUGH WITH TIME
CHANCES OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN STRENGTHENING WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL
INCREASE BY LATE EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD BE ALMOST ENTIRELY NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WHICH IS ALREADY
NORTH OF I-88...WHICH MEANS THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE IN OUR FAR
NORTHERN CWA OR INTO WISCONSIN. BETTER CHANCES OF STORMS INTO OUR
CWA MAY WELL HOLD OFF UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN CORNBELT
COMPLEX PUSHES EAST OR SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD OUR AREA. STILL A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY WHERE ANY EVENTUAL MCS WILL TRACK...BUT CERTAINLY
PLAUSIBLE WE COULD SEE AN MCS WITH BOTH FORWARD PROPOGATING AND
UPWIND PROPOGATING SEGMENTS. GIVEN THE VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATERS AND PROGGED CORFIDI VECTORS OF LESS THAN 10KT THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS AND FLASH FLOODING
IN ADDITION TO A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. SHOULD HAVE A BETTER IDEA
HOW THIS ALL SHOULD PLAY OUT IN A COUPLE HOURS ONCE CONVECTION
BEGINS TO SHOW ITS HAND TO OUR WEST.

IZZI
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That cell has been dropping golf balls and is slowly heading toward you. You should get your car in the garage.

Ya, that's what I am going to do, even though the warning is moving now more to the nw of me, but the storm seems to be growing.  Thanks for the heads up.   Poor campers at Potato Creek state park are getting clobbered.

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