Harry Perry Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 Models are definitely trying to keep that front from moving any further north than the MI/IN-OH border overnight... Those would suggest that most of the storms stay further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 feature shows up nicely on visual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 feature shows up nicely on visual Wow. Pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 DTX 18z sounding... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 DTX 18z sounding... That's a pretty impressive sounding, all things considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 models are pretty consistent in showing development in N. IA later this evening and riding it southeast into N. IL / S. WI fueled by the LLJ. If anything there may be a potential enhanced heavy rain / training thread on areas that see a couple rounds. Flooding would definitely be a concern in that scenario. Additional development farther west looks likely later on and it's more a question of where it goes...is it much like last night or does it end up being more of a northern IL/IN thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 That's a pretty impressive sounding, all things considered. Yep. So very close to storm initiation, but that weak cap just isn't budging. The best threat should shift into OH/IN though (if nothing initiates), as the MCV subsidence bubble rotates into here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 That's a pretty impressive sounding, all things considered. Yeah I mean today has a chance to be pretty solid in this region. Some of these stats are impressive but you need the storms to fire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 Wisconsin's tornado drought officially over PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 242 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 1141 PM TORNADO 4 NE BLANCHARDVILLE 42.85N 89.80W 06/16/2014 F1 GREEN WI NWS STORM SURVEY TORNADO DAMAGE TO FARMSTEADS ALONG HAY HOLLOW ROAD IN NORTHWEST GREEN COUNTY. NUMEROUS LARGE TREES DOWN. PRELIMINARY RATING OF EF1 WITH WINDS SPEEDS UP TO 95 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 Something's finally going up just north of DTW. It should cruise by to the south of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 Flooding would definitely be a concern in that scenario. Additional development farther west looks likely later on and it's more a question of where it goes...is it much like last night or does it end up being more of a northern IL/IN thing? probably going to depend on the LLJ orientation, it looks increasingly likely like the day time heating and best instability will be shunted south of what the models were selling ealier this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 RC's take ..... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 304 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014 DISCUSSION 303 PM CDT NEAR TERM MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT PRIMARY CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE TRENDS. ADMITTEDLY A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. MAIN PLAYERS ON THE FIELD ARE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM LAST NIGHT'S CONVECTION THAT IS STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND A MIDLEVEL WAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WEAKLY CAPPED TO UNCAPPED STRONG 3000-4000 J/KG MLCAPE SOUTH OF THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES IN LOW 90S AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 70/LOW 70S. WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND BACK TO THE PLAINS FEATURES MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY BUT STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF CAPPING. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN BLOSSOMING CU FIELD THAT HAS SHOWN SOME AGITATION. WILL HAVE TO MAKE A LAST MINUTE DECISION BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS FOR LATE AFTERNOON POPS IN THAT AREA. IF ANY CONVECTION CAN INITIATE...TREND IS FOR SLIGHTLY INCREASED WESTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON THAT WOULD RESULT IN INCREASED EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT. PRIMARY THREATS WOULD BE WIND AND HAIL GIVEN HIGH LEVELS OF DCAPE AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. CONCERN LATER THIS EVENING THEN SHIFTS TO POTENTIAL FOR MIDLEVEL WAVE OVER PLAINS INITIATING CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN IA/SOUTHERN MN AND CELLS OR CLUSTERS. THESE WOULD THEN MERGE INTO AN MCS/ORGANIZED CLUSTERS THAT THEN PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT/850-300 MB THICKNESS. FWD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS ALSO FAVOR SOUTHEASTWARD MCS MOVEMENT. HAVE INDICATED LIKELY POPS SPREADING IN FROM NORTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING...BUT FOCUS FOR LIKELIES WILL STILL REMAIN GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THE EXPECTED INITIATION AREA LOOKS PRIMARILY STABLE ON VISIBLE SATELLITE AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING...SO WOULD LIKE TO HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE BEFORE INCREASING POPS TO CATEGORICAL. IT IS DISTINCTLY POSSIBLE THAT MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT WILL REMAIN IN THE FAR NORTHERN CWA AND NORTH OF THE STATE LINE TONIGHT. 30-40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT A WIND AND POSSIBLY HAIL THREAT WITH ANY MCS TONIGHT. AND JUICY HIGH PWAT AIR MASS WILL FAVOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS...THOUGH SINCE BULK OF RAIN WAS OVER WI LAST NIGHT...NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD FLOOD THREAT. ANTICIPATING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. REMAINDER OF DISCUSSION TO FOLLOW. RC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 Lol @ powerball throwing in the towel. Its officially summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 EF3 tornado confirmed in Verona, WI and I believe that was unwarned. https://twitter.com/NWSMKX/status/478999990246068224 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 EF3 tornado confirmed in Verona, WI and I believe that was unwarned. https://twitter.com/NWSMKX/status/478999990246068224 MKX is damn lucky that no one was killed as far as we know with this tornado. An EF-3 unwarned at night in a very populated area, that is a recipe for disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 EF3 tornado confirmed in Verona, WI and I believe that was unwarned. https://twitter.com/NWSMKX/status/478999990246068224 Pretty sure that particular one had some lead time but things were happening fast and I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 A few storms developing in far NE IN/NWOH. We'll see if any actually develop into stronger storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 Pretty sure that particular one had some lead time but things were happening fast and I could be wrong. It was already doing damage before the warning was issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 Pretty sure that particular one had some lead time but things were happening fast and I could be wrong. No that one went unwarned for tornadoes while having a TDS for 3 scans, it wasn't until after it hit Verona. The one that was on the east side of Madison was warned, although we have yet to hear their findings with that one though there was damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 Lol @ powerball throwing in the towel. Its officially summer. Oh...so you're back... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 The tornado warning for Verona went out at 11:51 PM and was valid until 12:15 AM. We'll see what time they go with for touchdown but it appears Verona was hit ~12:10 AM. Unless we had a continuous track from Green county into Dane county, doesn't it mean the warning technically was issued in advance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rickhammond Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 MKX is claiming it was warned in advance using those time frames, since Verona was in the first polygon warning. I tend to agree though that storm had moved past Verona at that point and this was a new storm/unwarned until touchdown. Fire Departments were being dispatched to tornado damage before the warning was activated at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 The tornado warning for Verona went out at 11:51 PM and was valid until 12:15 AM. We'll see what time they go with for touchdown but it appears Verona was hit ~12:10 AM. Unless we had a continuous track from Green county into Dane county, doesn't it mean the warning technically was issued in advance? I know there was a discontinuity between 2 warnings and I believe the tornado warning polygon didn't include Verona in the first one if I remember correctly. I know several of us were up in arms last night because of their miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 HRRR continues to be way north as is the hires NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 MKX put up some images. They are from 12:13 AM and it looks like the tornado is getting past Verona at that time. They missed with getting the warning out for Green county for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 Pretty sure that particular one had some lead time but things were happening fast and I could be wrong. I have to go back and look, but I think it was outside or moved outside the TOR polygon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 I have to go back and look, but I think it was outside or moved outside the TOR polygon. Check the images I just posted above. It does look like it's straddling the polygon at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 That's a pretty nasty looking rotation near Barrie, ON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 Damage reported in Ontario near Barrie, looked like a strong embedded supercell/bookend vortex like WI last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 Large destructive tornado in Angus, ON...good lord. \ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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