Powerball Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 Getting a bit of sun this morning. But clearly there's plenty of cloud debris upstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 Also, FWIW, the SPC added a 30% risk area of wind for Detroit and then eastward into NE Ohio, Northern Pennsylvania and the Buffalo area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 Getting a bit of sun this morning. But clearly there's plenty of cloud debris upstream. Don't think it's too bad. Blue skies visible now on northern horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 Don't think it's too bad. Blue skies visible now on northern horizon. Latest satellite shows that enough of it has diminished for us to get some decent morning sunshine here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 fwiw, outflow still pushing south across southern IA into northern MO wouldn't be surprised to find the best action to my southwest this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 4km wrf looks great for southern lower Michigan later on this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 4km wrf looks great for southern lower Michigan later on this evening. The 12z RAP also develops of line of t'storms overhead (this way) around 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OntarioChaser Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 Southern Ontario in the 30% wind, sweet, great chase day ahead. Good luck to everyone else as well!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 Cloud debris has moved back in. Temps did managed to rise into the mid-upper 80s though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 fwiw, outflow still pushing south across southern IA into northern MO wouldn't be surprised to find the best action to my southwest this evening 00z SPC WRF, which did an okay job in general last night, is really lighting up your area tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 Hoping that we do in fact see some development this afternoon across NE IN/SEMI that eventually moves into northern OH, but I'm really looking forward to some nighttime light shows the next couple of days. It's been a while since we've seen more than a few flashes of lightning this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 Clearing out nicely here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 Lmao @ dtx throwing in the towel already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 00z SPC WRF, which did an okay job in general last night, is really lighting up your area tonight. HRRR is consistent with initiation in north central IA with a nice instaiblity gradient sloping into our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 Liking new day 1 for here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 Also, FWIW, the SPC added a 30% risk area of wind for Detroit and then eastward into NE Ohio, Northern Pennsylvania and the Buffalo area. Easy come, easy go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 12z SPC 4KM WRF clobbers N Iowa and S Wisconsin/far N Illinois again tonight. Hopefully that warm front makes a nice jump to the north again during the day. Pretty clear that the effective warm front is a fair bit south of here atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 Liking new day 1 for here you chasing or at home? outflow from early morning storms helped shove the frontal boundary south and the instability gradient slopes nicely into the area, so the setup is similar to some of our better convective training episodes. That said, still seeing plenty of model solutions suggesting the main show north of the cheddar curtain. We'll have a better idea shortly after initiation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 you chasing or at home? outflow from early morning storms helped shove the frontal boundary south and the instability gradient slopes nicely into the area, so the setup is similar to some of our better convective training episodes. That said, still seeing plenty of model solutions suggesting the main show north of the cheddar curtain. We'll have a better idea shortly after initiation. It may well be another six to eight hours until initiation, and with no ongoing convection throughout the warm sector, that boundary will have time to shift north, but I'm not sure if it will shift north of the WI/IL border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 you chasing or at home? outflow from early morning storms helped shove the frontal boundary south and the instability gradient slopes nicely into the area, so the setup is similar to some of our better convective training episodes. That said, still seeing plenty of model solutions suggesting the main show north of the cheddar curtain. We'll have a better idea shortly after initiation. Nope I'm home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 It may well be another six to eight hours until initiation, and with no ongoing convection throughout the warm sector, that boundary will have time to shift north, but I'm not sure if it will shift north of the WI/IL border. best deep instability is already up to I80 in N. IL and pushing north fast...you're GTG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 After clearing out, CU is building again with low level CAPE in place now. So there's still an outside shot of something developing over the next hour. Not holding my breath though. If the latest SPC MCD is any sign (initiation in IL/IN), we're done for with the severe weather potential this week (as the front will be driven further southward by the t'storm outflows and MCVs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 Impressive shear aloft in our area right now and the atmosphere is an absolute powder keg with CAPE in Northern Indiana from 3000-4000 j/kg currently. Also the Craven/Brooks Severe is pretty high as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 If the latest SPC MCD is any sign (initiation in IL/IN), we're done for with the severe weather potential this week. ....there's a slight risk for tomorrow too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 ....there's a slight risk for tomorrow too... See my edit. (as the front will be driven further southward by the t'storm outflows and MCVs). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 A couple cells popping up in northern/northeast in but nothing looks impressive yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 First north of Chicago yesterday, now South. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1040 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0158 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL/NRN INDIANA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 171858Z - 172030Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...STORM DEVELOPMENT -- AND ACCOMPANYING SEVERE RISK -- MAY DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. WW POSSIBLE. DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG A REMNANT CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM SRN LOWER MI WSWWD ACROSS NRN INDIANA INTO NRN IL. THE MOIST AIRMASS NEAR AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO HEAT/DESTABILIZE...WITH 2500 TO 3000 J/KG NOW INDICATED PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. WITH FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION INCREASING WITH HEIGHT WHILE VEERING GRADUALLY FROM SWWD TO WWD/WNWWD THROUGH THE LOWEST 4 KM...SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT VIGOROUS/EWD-MOVING STORMS. WHILE INITIAL STORM MOTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY WOULD YIELD SOME CONVECTIVE INTERFERENCE -- NOT IDEAL FOR SUSTAINED SEVERE RISK...DEGREE OF CAPE SUGGEST THAT UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A BOWING MCS IS AT LEAST A POSSIBILITY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR EVOLUTION OF THE CU FIELD ACROSS THIS AREA FOR SIGNS THAT WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 The IL/IN stuff could throw a wrench in things for later tonight depending on how much development takes place. If it's not too organized then that IA/southern WI/northern IL zone is still looking good for later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 The IL/IN stuff could throw a wrench in things for later tonight depending on how much development takes place. If it's not too organized then that IA/southern WI/northern IL zone is still looking good for later. models are pretty consistent in showing development in N. IA later this evening and riding it southeast into N. IL / S. WI fueled by the LLJ. If anything there may be a potential enhanced heavy rain / training thread on areas that see a couple rounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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