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June 16-25 Severe threat


snowlover2

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fwiw, outflow still pushing south across southern IA into northern MO

 

wouldn't be surprised to find the best action to my southwest this evening

 

 

00z SPC WRF, which did an okay job in general last night, is really lighting up your area tonight. 

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Hoping that we do in fact see some development this afternoon across NE IN/SEMI that eventually moves into northern OH, but I'm really looking forward to some nighttime light shows the next couple of days. It's been a while since we've seen more than a few flashes of lightning this year. 

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Liking new day 1 for here

 

 

you chasing or at home?

 

outflow from early morning storms helped shove the frontal boundary south and the instability gradient slopes nicely into the area, so the setup is similar to some of our better convective training episodes. That said, still seeing plenty of model solutions suggesting the main show north of the cheddar curtain. We'll have a better idea shortly after initiation.

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you chasing or at home?

 

outflow from early morning storms helped shove the frontal boundary south and the instability gradient slopes nicely into the area, so the setup is similar to some of our better convective training episodes. That said, still seeing plenty of model solutions suggesting the main show north of the cheddar curtain. We'll have a better idea shortly after initiation.

 

It may well be another six to eight hours until initiation, and with no ongoing convection throughout the warm sector, that boundary will have time to shift north, but I'm not sure if it will shift north of the WI/IL border.

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you chasing or at home?

outflow from early morning storms helped shove the frontal boundary south and the instability gradient slopes nicely into the area, so the setup is similar to some of our better convective training episodes. That said, still seeing plenty of model solutions suggesting the main show north of the cheddar curtain. We'll have a better idea shortly after initiation.

Nope I'm home.

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It may well be another six to eight hours until initiation, and with no ongoing convection throughout the warm sector, that boundary will have time to shift north, but I'm not sure if it will shift north of the WI/IL border.

 

 

 

best deep instability is already up to I80 in N. IL and pushing north fast...you're GTG

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After clearing out, CU is building again with low level CAPE in place now.


 


So there's still an outside shot of something developing over the next hour. Not holding my breath though.


 


If the latest SPC MCD is any sign (initiation in IL/IN), we're done for with the severe weather potential this week (as the front will be driven further southward by the t'storm outflows and MCVs.


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First north of Chicago yesterday, now South.

 

mcd1040.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1040   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0158 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL/NRN INDIANA   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE    VALID 171858Z - 172030Z   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT   SUMMARY...STORM DEVELOPMENT -- AND ACCOMPANYING SEVERE RISK -- MAY   DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA.  WW   POSSIBLE.   DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING CU   DEVELOPMENT ALONG A REMNANT CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM SRN   LOWER MI WSWWD ACROSS NRN INDIANA INTO NRN IL.  THE MOIST AIRMASS   NEAR AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO HEAT/DESTABILIZE...WITH   2500 TO 3000 J/KG NOW INDICATED PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS.   WITH FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION INCREASING WITH HEIGHT WHILE VEERING   GRADUALLY FROM SWWD TO WWD/WNWWD THROUGH THE LOWEST 4 KM...SHEAR   WOULD SUPPORT VIGOROUS/EWD-MOVING STORMS.  WHILE INITIAL STORM   MOTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY WOULD YIELD SOME CONVECTIVE INTERFERENCE   -- NOT IDEAL FOR SUSTAINED SEVERE RISK...DEGREE OF CAPE SUGGEST THAT   UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A BOWING MCS IS AT LEAST A POSSIBILITY.  WE WILL   CONTINUE TO MONITOR EVOLUTION OF THE CU FIELD ACROSS THIS AREA FOR   SIGNS THAT WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY.
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The IL/IN stuff could throw a wrench in things for later tonight depending on how much development takes place.  If it's not too organized then that IA/southern WI/northern IL zone is still looking good for later.

 

 

models are pretty consistent in showing development in N. IA later this evening and riding it southeast into N. IL / S. WI fueled by the LLJ. If anything there may be a potential enhanced heavy rain / training thread on areas that see a couple rounds.

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