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June 16-25 Severe threat


snowlover2

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The flow may want to push the storms northeast, but they are clearly sagging southeast into the instability, toward Cedar Rapids.  The storms continue to go back into NE/SD so it could be a long night.

 

You're gonna get rocked!  Line looks great to your northwest.  Looks like DLL's getting smoked now as well. 

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I just looked at the long range radar loop for all of 30 seconds and it's clear to me that everybody north of I-80 in IL will be in play with this and I wouldn't be shocked if it creeps even farther south.

The earlier convection over southeast IA, northeast MO and western IL likely kept the front from surging north faster and kept the instability gradient draped across northern IL. Forecast 850-300 mb thickness fields from the RAP tonight with a decided southeast slope to them were also telling that this thing would impact northern IL. And you're probably right about even farther south being in play.

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I just looked at the long range radar loop for all of 30 seconds and it's clear to me that everybody north of I-80 in IL will be in play with this and I wouldn't be shocked if it creeps even farther south.

 

Looks like the area north of I-80 could be rocking and rolling for a high wind threat if this continues at this intensity. Quality boomers nonetheless.

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Really hoping that MCS makes it here in a healthy state.

 

Need a consolation prize for stupidly not chasing the NE/IA action today.

 

Even worse for me.  I actually had today off but was pessimistic after seeing the morning convection.  Didn't want to drive deep into Nebraska and back in one day either.  Oh well, just glad 2014 finally produced some high quality action.  Very high quality action at that lol.  Congrats to Thundersnow, and the others who cashed in on a once in a lifetime chase.  :thumbsup:

 

Looks like there's two main areas of rotation atm.  One with the tor warning west of Dubuque, and another northwest of Cedar Rapids. 

 

EDIT:  Tornado warning was just cancelled.

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No active severe thunderstorm warnings with the eastern IA portion of the line.  Not too much separation with the outflow yet there but seems like the better severe threat is in Wisconsin.

 

Yeah the cold pool is further north.  Not much driving the southern end, despite better instability.  Significant LLJ is feeding right into the southern portion of the line, but it's not really helping too much at this point. 

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