wisconsinwx Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 Going to be quite a stormy night for SW and WC Wisconsin. Looks like two rounds of storms are likely to affect Platteville, Prairie du Chien, and perhaps LaCrosse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 Storms in western central IL really fizzled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 Found what I was looking for earlier... seems like the NAM had a good grip on the formation, but where it's headed is another issue.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 overall complex movement is already south of due east and the cold pool is just getting going. still think south is the way to go from NE IA into NW IL during the overnight for best winds with the tail end back building south fueled by the llj into the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 overall complex movement is already south of due east and the cold pool is just getting going. still think south is the way to go from NE IA into NW IL during the overnight for best winds with the tail end back building south fueled by the llj into the morning. I see what you mean but the lead cells look to be breaking off and moving due east through extreme S Minnesota. I don't think the line trailing back W that is drifting SE will have as much effect on those lead cells yet. I anticipate once it crosses the Mississippi River it will start to take its SE movement, meaning a corridor just to the NE of where you are pinpointing (WC Wisconsin into SC Wisconsin) will be most at risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 I see what you mean but the lead cells look to be breaking off and moving due east through extreme S Minnesota. I don't think the line trailing back W that is drifting SE will have as much effect on those lead cells yet. I anticipate once it crosses the Mississippi River it will start to take its SE movement, meaning a corridor just to the NE of where you are pinpointing (WC Wisconsin into SC Wisconsin) will be most at risk. it's pretty clear looking at radar and the current instability axis that most models are going to be too far north with the main convective complex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 it's pretty clear looking at radar and the current instability axis that most models are going to be too far north with the main convective complex. Might want to loop the radar, the line is moving ENE along with the flow, and the 18z 4km NAM which has a good handle on this tracks the majority of the line through WI maybe clipping the far northern part of IL and into MI before dying and laying an outflow boundary across WI/MI in a WNW-ESE fashion. This boundary lights up tomorrow with supercells after 2-3pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 Mean flow aloft is also pointing in ENE fashion until you get into WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 Might want to loop the radar, the line is moving ENE along with the flow, and the 18z 4km NAM which has a good handle on this tracks the majority of the line through WI maybe clipping the far northern part of IL and into MI before dying and laying an outflow boundary across WI/MI in a WNW-ESE fashion. This boundary lights up tomorrow with supercells after 2-3pm. He is right though that it is a bit south of where most of the global models positioned the line the last day or two (of course, hi-res are the way to go anyway for severe weather typically). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 Might want to loop the radar, the line is moving ENE along with the flow, and the 18z 4km NAM which has a good handle on this tracks the majority of the line through WI maybe clipping the far northern part of IL and into MI before dying and laying an outflow boundary across WI/MI in a WNW-ESE fashion. This boundary lights up tomorrow with supercells after 2-3pm. The flow is ENE, but it is still convection. In these types of setups, while the overall complex may move one direction, the best convection always propagates along the instability axis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 The flow is ENE, but it is still convection. In these types of setups, while the overall complex may move one direction, the best convection always propagates along the instability axis. Yes but that axis is also lifting NE as well. He is right though that it is a bit south of where most of the global models positioned the line the last day or two (of course, hi-res are the way to go anyway for severe weather typically). Yeah I am matching it up with the model that has it correct right now which would be the 4km NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 center of MCV already due west of LaCrosse and rounding the bend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 Yes but that axis is also lifting NE as well. But the million dollar question, as always with these setups, is at what speed will that axis lift NE (with the sun setting, that will slow it down) relative to the speed of the MCS. Where it ends up overnight is most likely the best convection will propagate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 But the million dollar question, as always with these setups, is at what speed will that axis lift NE (with the sun setting, that will slow it down) relative to the speed of the MCS. Where it ends up overnight is most likely the best convection will propagate. LLJ kicks up tonight so I would expect it to continue moving NE as models are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 center of MCV already due west of LaCrosse and rounding the bend. Right location but it is definitely not rounding any bend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 Notice the southward jog the last few frames. Might be the start of something. center of MCV already due west of LaCrosse and rounding the bend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 Tough call since mesovortices tend to pull things to the left, but the better instability is to the south. Gonna be fun to watch. EDIT: can't type Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 LLJ kicks up tonight so I would expect it to continue moving NE as models are showing. Honestly though, I'd be ok with a solution where the MCS splits and fades away over IL/WI (if we can't get i to track into the UP). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 I get the feeling it will move due E for the next couple hours (hard to deny the primary movement atm is E), then start to drift ESE. In other words, Madison and Milwaukee will be affected by the north half of the line, and the northern burbs of Chicago should be affected by the southern portion and any southward building storms that pop up overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 forward speed definitely accelerating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 Notice the southward jog the last few frames. Might be the start of something. i'm confident that it will end up south of guidance and affect our CWA north of I88…i've seen this movie before. Best cells are already almost due west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 i'm confident that it will end up south of guidance and affect our CWA north of I88…i've seen this movie before. Best cells are already almost due west. Yeah, N Illinois will not be left untouched with this MCS, that's almost a certainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 What will lake breeze visible on radar do to this sucker? Or will strengthening LLJ later on knock it back and keep it a non-issue? Definitely looks to have made it less far inland south of IL/WI border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 What will lake breeze visible on radar do to this sucker? Or will strengthening LLJ later on knock it back and keep it a non-issue? Definitely looks to have made it less far inland south of IL/WI border. I'm wondering if it will affect the effective warm front. As for the line itself, the northern portion looks to want to go N of E, and the southern/western portion is trying to push south. Will it mean the demise of the line as a whole, or which portion will win? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 MKX: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI752 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014.UPDATE...THE SHORT RANGE/HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAD BEEN POINTING TO ALATER SHOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS THAN WHAT IS UNFOLDING THIS EVENING.BUT...IT/S NOT UNUSUAL FOR THESE MODELS TO BE SLOW WITH THEEVOLUTION. THE MCS OVER SOUTHERN MN/NRN IA IS ORGANIZING INTO AQLCS COMPLEX THAT IS EXPECTED TO ROLL INTO OUR FAR WESTERNCOUNTIES BETWEEN 9 AND 10 PM THIS EVENING. IT/S CURRENTLY MOVINGABOUT 45 TO 50 MPH AND HAS NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGSAND A FEW TORNADO WARNINGS CURRENTLY ALONG IT.THE AIRMASS OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IS MOISTENING UP RAPIDLY ASTHE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S ARE CREEPINGNORTH JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE. BULK SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE. SO...SEENO REASON THAT AN EXTRAPOLATION OF THE CURRENT LINE EASTWARD WILLNOT BE EFFECTIVE. TYPICAL WITH THESE SYSTEMS...IT SHOULD EVOLVEINTO PRIMARILY A WIND EVENT WITH AN ISOLD TOR POSSIBLE.EVENTUALLY...AS WE HIT THE DIURNAL SLUMP...THE CONVECTION SHOULDLOSE IT/S PUNCH AS IT GETS INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN. WE/LL HAVE TOWAIT AND SEE ABOUT THAT. A COLD POOL/CDFNT WILL LAY OUT IN THEWAKE OF THIS LEADING CONVECTION THAT COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR MORETHUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT INTO THE TUESDAY MORNING. WE/LL HAVETO KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ANY FLOODING.IT WILL BE AN ACTIVE NIGHT...STAY UP TO DATE ON THE LATESTFORECASTS AND TRENDS ON RADAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 I'm wondering if it will affect the effective warm front. As for the line itself, the northern portion looks to want to go N of E, and the southern/western portion is trying to push south. Will it mean the demise of the line as a whole, or which portion will win? The combination of increasing low level winds and the end of diurnal heating should wash it out. I'm a bit worried the better instability doesn't make it up here but we'll see how things progress this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 lake breeze has already retreated from my area instability gradient and MCS parameters FWIW, pops bumped to likely for MBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 Some very impressive lightning the last 45 minutes or so...ton of cloud to cloud/big bolts...heavy rain just moved through...lighter rain now. lots of thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 thunderstorm blew up overhead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 Watch coming MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1028NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0837 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN...SRN WI...NERN IA...EXTREME NRN ILCONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 304...306...VALID 170137Z - 170300ZTHE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 304...306...CONTINUES.SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO ORTWO CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA ANDSOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. A DOWNSTREAM WW WILL BE COORDINATED WITH LOCALNWS WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES PRIOR TO 0230Z FOR THE REMAINDER OFSOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND EXTREME NORTHERN ILLINOIS.DISCUSSION...WELL-DEVELOPED FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE SYSTEMWITH A HISTORY OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS/DAMAGE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AT40 KNOTS ACCOMPANIED BY A WELL-DEVELOPED COLD POOL AND 3-4 MB/2 HRPRESSURE RISES. WITH TIME...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD TURN MORE ESE ALONGAN INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL/SERN WI ANDEXTREME NRN IL. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST HIGH-RESGUIDANCE...AND THUS A NEW DOWNSTREAM WW WILL BE NEEDED PRIOR TO0230Z. IN ADDITION...A LOCAL AREAL EXTENSION OF WW 304...OR A NEWWW...MAY ALSO BE NEEDED FOR THE WFO DAVENPORT CWA. THE PRIMARYTHREAT REMAINS DAMAGING WINDS...POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT...WITH ACONTINUED RISK FOR QLCS TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOST INTENSEBOWING SEGMENTS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE...PRIMARILYOVER THE SRN PORTION OF THE LINE...BUNTING/THOMPSON.. 06/17/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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