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June 16-25 Severe threat


snowlover2

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This was just posted on Chat from the Indy air traffic control tower.

 

"We had a controller here that witnessed the very beginning of the tornado/damage path. He saw it touch down just north of Township Line Road west of Smith Road in far nrn part of Plainfield. The first structure it hit was some barns east of Smith Road, which he described as "Exploding". He described the tornado as ropy/snakelike, moving back and forth."

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Just had quite a nice funnel form and extend from the base of the wall cloud here in Oakbrook Terrace. They blew the sirens, but I'm not seeing a warning. Didn't last long at all.

 

 

nice, i had a great view of the tower go up from downtown.

 

really classic lake breeze convergence convection…best climo

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Agree.  There's good low level instability/moisture but not a whole lot of shear. 

 

Where did this thing even come from? Kind of a crappy set up for a large damaging twister imo

 

 

While speed shear is lacking, there's good directional shear in place (I had mentioned this in the thread 2 days ago).

 

Combined with the low LCLs, you can still get tornadoes to happen. 

 

You actually don't want a whole lot of speed shear for tornadoes to develop, as that will disrupt the vertical development of the circulation. 

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Sweet!!

Basically straight east of you near comiskey home the 2005 World Champions, the Chicago White Sox, God's Greatest Baseball Team, we're facing south so we're well placed to watch the rain lightning and sunlight show, but had a narrow view of tower as it went up -- looked like it had some structure, wondering if it had any visible circulation out west

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IND met went out and did some preliminary survey work near their office and found some EF-1 damage. Complete path survey to be finished tomorrow morning.

 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
755 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0231 PM TORNADO 6 NE PLAINFIELD 39.76N 86.31W
06/24/2014 MARION IN NWS STORM SURVEY

CAMPER APPARENTLY WAS TOSSED ONTO ROOF OF HOME
DESTROYING THE CAMPER AND APPROXIMATELY HALF OF THE ROOF
FACING THE STREET. TORNADO DAMAGE RATING EF-1. ESTIMATED
TIME.

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Some more storm reports:

 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
710 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0231 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 NE PLAINFIELD 39.73N 86.35W
06/24/2014 HENDRICKS IN NWS EMPLOYEE

200 PLUS CARS WERE DAMAGED AT AUTO AUCTION AT ADESA AT
2950 EAST MAIN STREET

 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
734 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0231 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 SE CLERMONT 39.80N 86.29W
06/24/2014 MARION IN TRAINED SPOTTER

UTILITY POLES WERE SNAPPED OR LEANING. THE SNAPPED ONE
WAS BROKEN 3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. TREES WERE
SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ROOFING DAMAGE. LAWN FURNITURE WAS
STREWN ABOUT. TIME IS ESTIMATED.

 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
738 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0231 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 NW INDIANAPOLIS INT'L 39.73N 86.31W
06/24/2014 MARION IN TRAINED SPOTTER

TREE LIMBS DOWN ALL ALONG BRIDGEPORT ROAD. TIME
ESTIMATED.

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Sweet!!

Basically straight east of you near comiskey home the 2005 World Champions, the Chicago White Sox, God's Greatest Baseball Team, we're facing south so we're well placed to watch the rain lightning and sunlight show, but had a narrow view of tower as it went up -- looked like it had some structure, wondering if it had any visible circulation out west

Nice. I noticed a tower or 2 pluming in the distance but i wasn't expecting much then I heard distant thunder. I glanced outside and noticed it started getting dark looking east. It was sunny to the west and south. So thats when I figured I'm right at the south west edge of the cell.

I peeked out looking up towards north east for hell of it to see if there is a shelf cloud and noticed a stub of tight circulation above me going south east. It started wrapping nicely getting fat then it washed out. Then after watching it struggle back is when I took those shots. At one point it looked like it was about to touch down and I was wondering how come they didn't set off the siren then a moment later it went off.

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LOT statement on the funnels

000

WWUS83 KLOT 242350

SPSLOT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL

650 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

ILZ013-014-250200-

DUPAGE-COOK-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WHEATON...CHICAGO

650 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

...FUNNEL CLOUDS OVER EASTERN DUPAGE AND PORTIONS OF COOK...

DUE TO MULTIPLE SMALL SCALE BOUNDARIES OVER THE AREA...ATMOSPHERIC

CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK CIRCULATIONS

THAT AT TIMES HAVE BECOME BRIEFLY ROTATING FUNNEL CLOUDS. THESE

FUNNEL CLOUDS LAST A FEW MINUTES BEFORE DISSIPATING. WE HAVE

RECEIVED MULTIPLE PHOTOS...VIDEOS AND REPORTS OF FUNNEL CLOUDS

WITHIN THE PAST HOUR NEAR OAK BROOK...WESTERN SPRINGS AND

HINSDALE AND OTHER LOCATIONS IN THAT GENERAL AREA.

THESE FUNNEL CLOUDS RARELY TOUCH THE GROUND AND TYPICALLY DO NOT

POSE ANY SORT OF HAZARD. THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS THESE FUNNELS

ARE DEVELOPING IN DO NOT SUPPORT STRONG...DAMAGING TORNADOES.

HOWEVER...ON EXTREMELY RARE OCCASIONS THESE FUNNELS CAN BRIEFLY

TOUCH THE GROUND AND PRODUCE VERY MINIMAL...IF ANY DAMAGE.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES...MOVE INDOORS TO A PLACE OF

SAFETY. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY

MONITOR THE SITUATION. PLEASE FORWARD REPORTS OF FUNNEL SIGHTINGS

TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY FOR RELAY TO THE NATIONAL

WEATHER SERVICE.

$$

RC

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While speed shear is lacking, there's good directional shear in place (I had mentioned this in the thread 2 days ago).

 

Combined with the low LCLs, you can still get tornadoes to happen. 

 

You actually don't want a whole lot of speed shear for tornadoes to develop, as that will disrupt the vertical development of the circulation. 

 

 

 

Directional shear didn't even seem all that impressive in the area, at least based on forecast soundings.  I haven't looked to see what conditions were like in reality. 

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Couldn't get pics of the radar here at work but BV had 98 to 112 kts 300 to 450 ft just north of Speedway for about 20 minutes. Not saying it couldn't have been dirty but there were consistent +/- 50 to 90 kt returns in the broader circulation around where the tornado and funnel clouds were being reported so its not out of the question. I normally am working on the SW side of Indy but was in Muncie today. Figures ;)

Not a chance. I was watching in on level 2 the whole time. Velocity data was never that strong.

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LOT update

 

MONITORING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME OF THEM TO BE STRONG.

LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS MORNING...WITH
A RATHER MOIST ENVIRONMENT OF MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS STILL IN
PLACE. WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE MORNING FOG/STRATUS...WARMING HAS
ALLOWED FOR AN EARLY DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WITHIN RAPIDLY DIMINISHING CIN OVER NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AND NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. FURTHER EROSION OF THIS STABLE LAYER/CIN IS
LIKELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA...WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY LIKELY IN PLACE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE INCREASINGLY MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN THE
PRESENCE OF THIS BOUNDARY IS CONCERNING ESPECIALLY AS AREAS ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS BEGIN TO OBSERVE BETTER
LARGE SCALE LIFT...OUT AHEAD OF A STOUT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. BEST ASCENT WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL BE SITUATED FURTHER NORTH IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...AND
THIS WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR WITH OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
NONETHELESS...SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT ON THE TAIL END OF THE WAVE
COINCIDING WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PROVIDE AT LEAST SCATTERED
DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON OVER NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
ANY STORMS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AS THEY DRIFT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME...BEFORE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DIMINISH
INTO EARLY EVENING.

DESPITE WEAKER FORCING...EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 35-40KT AND PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED INSTABILITY PARAMETERS COULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG
DEVELOPMENT AND EVEN AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZE FLOODING REMAINING A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY STORMS AS A
MOIST ENVIRONMENT REMAINS IN PLACE.

 

 

and page on funnel yesterday

 

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lot&storyid=103061&source=0
 

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Could be a watch today:

mcd1145.gif

 

 

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1145
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1211 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI INTO NRN IL AND FAR NW IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 251711Z - 251945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THEY DEVELOP SEWD OUT OF WI AND INTO IL. LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED STORMS HAVE ALREADY FORMED OVER SWRN WI NEAR A
WEAK SURFACE LOW AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
MEANWHILE...HEATING CONTINUES TO ERODE/MIX LOW CLOUDS SEWD TOWARD
SRN LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH AN EXPANDING CU FIELD OVER NRN IL.

DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ARE RELATIVELY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS DESPITE WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...THE NELY
SURFACE WINDS NEAR THE DIFFUSE BOUNDARY MAY AUGMENT THE HODOGRAPHS
ASSUMING THE AIR IMMEDIATELY ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY CAN
BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. THIS MAY PROVE FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINING A
SUPERCELL OR TWO SEWD ACROSS SRN WI INTO NRN IL. THE COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WOULD FAVOR LARGE HAIL...WITH A LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WIND GUST ALWAYS POSSIBLE.

..JEWELL/CARBIN.. 06/25/2014
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