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June 16-25 Severe threat


snowlover2

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Tweeted by Brandon Redmond. Taken from Hoosier Park race track in Anderson.

 

attachicon.gifMadison Co061914.jpg

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN  844 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014     .TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON     .DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.                ..REMARKS..    0345 PM     TORNADO          6 NNW MARKLEVILLE       40.05N  85.66W  06/19/2014                   MADISON            IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT                 REPORT FROM COUNTY SHERRIF AND LOCAL MEDIA OF A               TORNADO. THE TORNADO WAS FIRST SPOTTED ALONG STATE ROAD               236 IN BETWEEN COUNTY ROADS 200E AND 300E. LAW               ENFORCEMENT FOLLOWED THE TORNADO TO THE HENRY COUNTY               LINE AS IT MOVED SOUTHEAST. THEY REPORTED SEEING ONLY               TREE DAMAGE ALONG ITS PATH.   
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Tweeted by Brandon Redmond. Taken from Hoosier Park race track in Anderson.

attachicon.gifMadison Co061914.jpg

That snuck up on us, a large cell moving SE interacted with a boundary moving SW. Just outside of the city that was spawned. One of our deputies chased it for about 6 miles or so. Some tree and outbuilding damage along the path, but it doesn't seem that it ever actually touched down.

Sent from my Galax......ahhhh who cares!

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That snuck up on us, a large cell moving SE interacted with a boundary moving SW. Just outside of the city that was spawned. One of our deputies chased it for about 6 miles or so. Some tree and outbuilding damage along the path, but it doesn't seem that it ever actually touched down.

Sent from my Galax......ahhhh who cares!

 

 

Yeah, IND is ruling it straight line wind damage.  There's a really grainy video on WTHR where it appears like the funnel was on the ground or very close to the ground but it's tough to tell.

 

http://www.wthr.com/story/25822595/2014/06/19/possible-tornado-touchdowns-in-anderson-markleville?autoStart=true&topVideoCatNo=default&clipId=10285154

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Just in from SPC a few minutes ago: Central and Northern Illinois roughly along/west of I-55 under an MD with 60% watch issuance probability:

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1104.html

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1104
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1241 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN IA...EXTREME SRN WI...NRN/WRN
   IL...NERN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

   VALID 211741Z - 211945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
   DEVELOP WITH A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. CONVECTIVE
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED AND A WW IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 19Z.

   DISCUSSION...ISOLD TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NRN IL AS OF 1730Z AS
   DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION HAS EFFECTIVELY ELIMINATED CINH AND
   RESULTED IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MESOANALYSIS DEPICTED A
   NW-SE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SRN WI INTO NERN IL...AND A
   SURFACE CONFLUENCE ZONE EXTENDING FROM SWRN WI SWD ACROSS ERN IA AND
   NERN MO. ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF
   THESE BOUNDARIES...AIDED BY ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A REMNANT MCV
   MOVING EWD ACROSS NERN IA. BY MID-AFTN MLCAPE OF 2500 TO LOCALLY
   3500 J/KG WILL BE IN PLACE...AND COMBINED WITH 30 - 35 KTS OF
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED
   MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. TSTMS MAY
   ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS WITH A LOCALLY ENHANCED SVR WIND
   THREAT.

   CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED AND A WW IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO
   19Z.

   ..BUNTING/HART.. 06/21/2014
 

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LOT's thoughts as of two hours ago:

 

 

 

 

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
1029 AM CDT

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TODAY WITH A
THREAT REMAINING FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER...PRIMARILY A HIGH
WIND THREAT...ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND POSSIBLY NORTHWEST
INDIANA.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS SLIDING EAST OUT AHEAD OF
WEAKENING WAA WING STRETCHING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. DONT
ANTICIPATE ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH THESE SHOWERS THIS MORNING
WITH THE CURRENT ISOLATED COVERAGE REMAINING THE SAME NOR DO I
EXPECT MUCH IN TERMS OF ANY THUNDER OUTSIDE OF A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER...AS THIS PRECIP IS BEING WEAKLY FORCED AND IN THE
PRESENCE OF A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. OUTSIDE OF THIS
DEVELOPMENT...EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING TO REMAIN DRY
WHILE LOW STRATUS FURTHER DIMINISHES THROUGH MID DAY WITH MORE
AREAS OBSERVING PARTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

SHIFT FOCUS TO MAIN THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY EVENING...FOR THE ENTIRE AREA OF NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. THE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WILL BE TIED TO APPROACHING MCV AND LINGERING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM NORTHWEST ILLINOIS BACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA. AS THIS
VIGOROUS SYSTEM PUSHES EAST INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN BY MID DAY...IT WILL BE ENCOUNTERING AN INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS ALREADY OCCURRING OVER WESTERN
ILLINOIS WITH LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING STEADILY STEEPENING LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. LIMITING FACTORS SUCH HIGH CIN IN PLACE WILL
ERODE THROUGH MID DAY WHILE CURRENT MODERATE INSTABILITY AXIS FROM
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS SOUTH TO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS BEGINS SPREADING
EASTWARD. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
THIS OCCURRENCE AROUND THE 19Z TO 20Z TIME FRAME...AND WILL BE
OCCURRING AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM SPREADS
EAST. MOST CURRENT GUIDANCE THIS MORNING IN AGREEMENT WITH
DEVELOPING PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND ALTHOUGH I DO
AGREE WITH THE IDEA/SOLUTION...I WONDER IF THE COVERAGE WILL BE AS
EXTENSIVE AS IS BEING ADVERTISED. THIS CONCERN IS TIED TO LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE POTENTIAL WITH WHICH CURRENT GUIDANCE IS
APPEARING TO BE OVERDOING AT THIS TIME. IF THIS OVERESTIMATE
CONTINUES...COVERAGE MAY NOT BE AS EXTENSIVE.
NONETHELESS...DESPITE THIS LIMITING FACTOR FEEL THAT LARGE SCALE
SUPPORT IN A MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO AT LEAST DEVELOP SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT WOULD PLACE HIGHER THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY
WILL RESIDE...BUT AS THE STABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON FEEL THAT ALL AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY HAVE THE SAME
THREAT. SO DONT WANT TO REALLY POINT OUT ONE AREA OVER THE OTHER
AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL WITH AN
UPDATED AFD WITH LATEST THINKING LIKELY BY MID DAY.

AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 39 COULD OBSERVE SCATTERED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY 19-20Z...SPREADING
EAST THROUGH REMAINING AREAS IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND THEN
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS IN THE 20-22Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
WITH REGARD TO STRONG/SEVERE THREAT IN NORTHWEST INDIANA...BUT IF
THIS WERE TO SPREAD EAST INTO THESE AREAS IT WOULD BE IN THE
22-23Z TIME WINDOW. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT TODAY WILL BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...BUT HAIL COULD POSSIBLY BECOME AN ISSUE ESPECIALLY IN
ANY OF THE MORE DEVELOPED THUNDERSTORMS.

RODRIGUEZ
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looking like a no go here

 

Probably lakeside. 

 

But I'm out in Dekalb at NIU playing on site meteorologist for the weekend for this Bike MS fundraiser. Blue box just issued....just enough shear for a sup or two and given the backed winds in spots and dews near 70 with plenty of instability...who knows. Wouldn't be shocked at a 2" hail report in a more stronger/isolated updraft. 

 

Newest HRRR continues to be bullish.

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Just got back from there. I did the 35 mile ride. A few years ago severe storms rolled in and we all had to take cover in people's barns. Good times.

Probably lakeside.

But I'm out in Dekalb at NIU playing on site meteorologist for the weekend for this Bike MS fundraiser. Blue box just issued....just enough shear for a sup or two and given the backed winds in spots and dews near 70 with plenty of instability...who knows. Wouldn't be shocked at a 2" hail report in a more stronger/isolated updraft.

Newest HRRR continues to be bullish.

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Just got back from there. I did the 35 mile ride. A few years ago severe storms rolled in and we all had to take cover in people's barns. Good times.

Probably lakeside.

But I'm out in Dekalb at NIU playing on site meteorologist for the weekend for this Bike MS fundraiser. Blue box just issued....just enough shear for a sup or two and given the backed winds in spots and dews near 70 with plenty of instability...who knows. Wouldn't be shocked at a 2" hail report in a more stronger/isolated updraft.

Newest HRRR continues to be bullish.

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Still not sure what to think about today...

 

Some sort of boundary clearly showing up on vis from near GYY down to near MQB, where those initial storms developed.

 

However, the main MCV axis is just now to crossing the IA/IL border area, with new development occurring southeast of DBQ. We'll see...

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Still not sure what to think about today...

 

Some sort of boundary clearly showing up on vis from near GYY down to near MQB, where those initial storms developed.

 

However, the main MCV axis is just now to crossing the IA/IL border area, with new development occurring southeast of DBQ. We'll see...

 

 

Those are the ones I'm watching. Although they aren't taking off as fast as the storms to the south. 

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