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June 16-25 Severe threat


snowlover2

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i guess i make 4

storms have been firing north of the best instability all week in WI so why not

Pretty typical around here for storms to fire when they're less expected to. Had to have caught SPC off guard too since we've had 2 watches and another slight risk this week with very little weather except across far northern IL and then the legit storms happen this evening. Some of the heaviest rain I've experienced here with this one over DuPage now.

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Pretty typical around here for storms to fire when they're less expected to. Had to have caught SPC off guard too since we've had 2 watches and another slight risk this week with very little weather except across far northern IL and then the legit storms happen this evening. Some of the heaviest rain I've experienced here with this one over DuPage now.

 

Anecdotal, but it seems the same way around here.  Many times the last couple years we've had temps in the 40s, 50s, etc. with fog even, and still managed to get some impressive thunderstorms, not exactly unstable.  On the flip side, it seems cold fronts after a week of hot temps, even with instability building up throughout the week, tend to come through dry more often than when we haven't had as hot of temps.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL  

738 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014  

   

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON  

   

.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.  

 

..REMARKS..  

 

0725 PM TSTM WND GST 6 SSW AURORA 41.69N 88.33W  

06/18/2014 M77 MPH KENDALL IL MESONET

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Well I got my wish for rain...a tad over 2.00" IMBY since this morning, but it also came with that ferocious lightning which was unlike anything I had ever seen before. Lots of cloud to ground stuff, struck several trees and left about 1000 homes in my neighborhood without power from 8AM-8PM. The restoration effort was hampered by that second squall line which I saw a few big branches down from and caused another transformer to pop, but thankfully once it passed the restoration effort began again and was finished up pretty quickly once they sawed up and hauled away the tree debris.

Wild weather day for sure.

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Possible watch for northern half of IN.

 

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1076
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0929 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN/CNTRL IND...W-CNTRL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 190229Z - 190330Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CLUSTER OF TSTMS PROGRESSING SEWD ACROSS NWRN IND IS
EXHIBITING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW FAR
SWD THIS THREAT WILL EXTEND INTO THE LATE EVENING...BUT TRENDS ARE
BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER NRN IL HAS PERSISTED
WITH SEWD PROGRESSION INTO NWRN IND...CURRENTLY POSITIONED WITHIN A
MODIFIED AIR MASS N OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRAPED NW-SE ACROSS THE
AREA. THE 00Z ILX SOUNDING MODIFIED WITH PROXIMITY SFC OBS SUGGEST
THIS CONVECTION MAY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. HOWEVER...RECENT RADAR
IMAGES FROM LOT/IND SAMPLED VERY STRONG VELOCITIES AT AROUND
5000-6000 FT AGL...WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR PRODUCING STRONG-SVR
WIND GUSTS.

CURRENT MOTION EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTS ONGOING CONVECTION SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE N OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITHIN A RELATIVELY LESS
UNSTABLE AIR MASS. WHILE STILL UNCERTAIN...THERE IS SOME CONCERN
THAT CONVECTION COULD MAINTAIN OR INCREASE IN INTENSITY WITH SWD
PROGRESSION INTO A SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PROXIMITY TO
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ADDITIONALLY...RECENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SFC DEWPOINTS IS OCCURRING N OF THE
BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTRL IND. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW SHOULD A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR SVR
WIND GUSTS BECOME APPARENT.

..ROGERS/EDWARDS.. 06/19/2014

 

post-4544-0-30384900-1403146202_thumb.gi

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Estimating 40-50 mph gusts here.

Had gusts of 50-55 mph with the outflow boundary then 50-60 mph gusts right as the warning came out. Thought for sure the new tree I planted in my front yard last year was going to snap off. Didn't know it could bend that far. Power dropped in and out a couple times.

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