Weathergun Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 The shortwave timing on the 12z Gfs tomorrow would support more storms after sunset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 If we get some good storms tonight, won't that effect tomorrow's potential? Perhaps, but not necessarily. If the atmosphere recovers, if can actually make tomorrow's potential more significant, due to higher surface dewpoints from the departing storms tonight. But there can be the issue of the atmosphere not completely recovering and then we'd get capped from the EML. EMLs greatly increase the potential ceiling for convection, but they also increase the odds of capping. I do think there will be enough forcing to break any cap tomorrow, so I'm not too worried about tonight's storms affecting tomorrow's potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 The 12z Euro focuses between 06z and 12z. We get a left over decaying MCS. (tomorrow night) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 The shortwave timing on the 12z Gfs tomorrow would support more storms after sunset. That gives us more time to erode the cap from the EML diurnally, too, so that any convection that does form is stronger, rather than weak convective debris. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 No one is discussing EXACT motions here, but general ideas. And if you want proof of things, you should be willing to back up your own claim of the 99% number, right? You pick some odd nitpicky sh*t to get completely soap boxy about. I didn't know personal attacks were allowed here - also here is a recent post a few up from here from Dssnowx53 a Met supporting me "Excellent post, Tom. Large MCS's generally (but not always) move just south of due east, due to the synoptic patterns that set them up." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 fiqure you would come in to join the attack - no surprise - also here is a recent post a few up from here from Dssnowx53 a Met supporting me "Excellent post, Tom. Large MCS's generally (but not always) move just south of due east, due to the synoptic patterns that set them up." So no, you cant back up your 99% claim? Didnt think so. Carry on ranting about ese vs se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 Any organized complex would likely initiate over upstate NY and then turn right following the best shear axis. I think portions of the area get smacked this evening. Favoring the Lower Hudson Valley as the most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 We have a rare combination today of decent shear and instability leading to excellent bulk Richardson numbers mostly in the 30-45 range which is optimal for supercells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 If we are supposed to have some kind of severe threat then why did the SPC just eliminate us from any risk both today and tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 We have a rare combination today of decent shear and instability leading to excellent bulk Richardson numbers mostly in the 30-45 range which is optimal for supercells. gotta say away from the coast some nice storms preferably supercells as you said may impact the area. tomorrow still remains the biggest question mark however.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 serial derecho events in the plains often move to the NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 serial derecho events in the plains often move to the NE We dont live in the plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 neither do these people http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/casepages/apr91991page.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 neither do these people http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/casepages/apr91991page.htm Cmon youre smarter than that. Do most of our complexes that hit this region move in that direction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 The last few runs of the RAP have been moving the storms further and further southeast. 18z version hits NNJ and LHV pretty well. 17z HRRR also a bit better enthused Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 We dont live in the plains the debate includes all MCS' no matter where they occur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 neither do these people http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/casepages/apr91991page.htm Seems like the NW to SE 99% movement crowd is losing support and by Mets on here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/derechofacts.htm Has many examples of Derechos that have happened . Majority moved east to southeast and south.. a handful moved NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 Either way its not looking overly widespread. Upton's only going with 20% now for tonight and tomorrow. 30% tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 Uhh no. Yanksfan pretty clearly was talking about it in reference to our subforum.Still waiting to see his 99% proof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 that cell that is in eastern PA is peaking my attention. looks pretty healthy atm, would really like to see some storms stay intact as they move towards the coast this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 that cell that is in eastern PA is peaking my attention. looks pretty healthy atm, would really like to see some storms stay intact as they move towards the coast this evening It's falling apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 It's falling apart. yea just saw the last radarscope scan. figures i try to write an upbeat post regarding severe weather and it goes to hell in a hand basket FAST! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 yea just saw the last radarscope scan. figures i try to write an upbeat post regarding severe weather and it goes to hell in a hand basket FAST! Once this thread was started we knew the threat would go to hell in a handbasket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 yea just saw the last radarscope scan. figures i try to write an upbeat post regarding severe weather and it goes to hell in a hand basket FAST! You don't get to talk about severe storms. You don't get to have them either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 Line comes through at 1AM on the 19z RAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 Lee Goldberg thinks any activity that we get tomorrow will be very spotty. He didn't seem worried that we would get very strong storms in here tomorrow as he was yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 Upton says severe chances for tomorrow are less then originally thought plus the heat index should not exceed the surface temps so tomorrow might feel less sticky then today http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fxus61.KOKX.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 Upton AFD PLENTY OF FORCING ALONG THE PATH OF THIS LOW IS EXPECTED. FAIRLYSTEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE OCCURRING UPSTREAM. MODELS STILLINDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY PER MODERATE MLCAPES AND SHOWALTERINDEX VALUES 0 TO -3C. UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROMNW TO SE...LIKELY APPROACHING NW ZONES AFTER 2-3Z. DEPENDING ONHOW WELL ACTIVITY MAINTAINS IT/S COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...COULD BELOOKING AT A FEW STRONGER STORMS APPROACHING THE AREA...LIKELYWEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT. MAIN THREAT NW OF NYC ANDFOR STRONG WINDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 Our MCS or what is left of it is just starting to fire in Ontario now. Long night of radar watching ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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