EricHaley Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 I noticed they were only showing up on one radar site (Hastings)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 The 12z 4km WRF aka god model is extremely impressive in central/eastern NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 Are storms supposed to develop further west or are we looking at our players for the aftn? The 16z HRRR does initiate convection farther west ahead of the dryline in central/eastern nebraska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 The 16Z HRRR has a violent supercell in northwest Iowa. Note the sig tor ahead of it, ahead of the cool rain. Note other parameters. Surface inflow is pretty wild too, even if not strong, look at direction. One can assume 925-850 is more robust. HRRR may not have placement right; but, it is keying in on the intersection of the morning outflow and gravity waves. That's the cell of the day. Nowcast time.. EDIT regarding post below: Models may be trying to resolve the same cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 The 12z 4km WRF aka god model is extremely impressive in central/eastern NE Are you talking about the regular 4 km nest of the NAM or the SPC WRF? The SPC WRF destroys FSD and SW MN from 22-00z based on max updraft helicity, but I still don't know I buy it since it's isn't resolving the line that's currently plowing through eastern SD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 New initiation in SE Boone County, NW of Columbus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawkers Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 New initiation in SE Boone County, NW of Columbus Oddly isn't showing up on visible sat yet... Appears to be having some trouble getting going and getting surface-based for whatever reason... EDIT: nvm, now it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 Oddly isn't showing up on visible sat yet... Appears to be having some trouble getting going and getting surface-based for whatever reason... Check the latest frame, it just showed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 Based on the HRRR output what we see today may be somewhat similar to 5/19/13. A few intense supercells develop (and could even produce some pretty high-end severe) but don't live very long. The disturbance that is kicking off this convection will rapidly move off to the northeast and leave behind shortwave ridging later this evening, and the EML really asserts itself after dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 New initiation in SE Boone County, NW of ColumbusAnvil going up in the distance from west of Omaha, must be it. Doesn't look overly impressive, yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 16, 2014 Author Share Posted June 16, 2014 The low level moisture across the eastern half of NE is very impressive/deep, with 16-18˚C H85 Tds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EricHaley Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 View of that anvil from 120th & Center in Omaha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 FWIW 17z HRRR takes that cell moving into NE Nebraska to town and sig tor values are pegged. Really have to wonder if a monster cell does develop/pass somewhere near Sioux ***City. Edit for Sioux City clarification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 Line W of Sioux Falls developing low-level mesovortices. FSD better be on the lookout...I feel the tornado threat is rapidly rising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 16, 2014 Author Share Posted June 16, 2014 MCD out for the eastern half of NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 Hook starting to develop on storm SW of Sibley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EricHaley Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 Check out the velocity mode on that one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xjcsa Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 I'm a complete amateur working on learning to read the Skew-T, hodograph, and other model data, so forgive me if my question is ignorant or out of place. I live near KALO and was looking at the WRF and HRR forecast numbers for tonight around 03z to 05z, and the parameters look very favorable/dangerous for us here: STP in the 10-13 range, 1km SRH from 375-600, Supercell Potential over 75% (100% at 04z per the WRF), and LCL heights about 500m. So the question - am I reading this right? Does it mean what it looks like (high likelihood of tornadoes), or is the storm mode likely to be linear by then despite the parameters because we're talking about 11pm or so? Again, sorry if this is too elementary a question for this board (just say "go away" and I'll resume my quiet reading); it just made me curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 TOR out now for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 16, 2014 Author Share Posted June 16, 2014 Absolutely absurd environment in E NE right now per mesoanalysis, effective STP up to 12, 3 km EHI up to 17, SCP up to 44 with mid 70s dewpoints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 Looks like a TDS on the CC but it could be ground clutter. It is in the same location as the couplet though... Edit: couplet has weakened with the latest scan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 Looks like a TDS on the CC but it could be ground clutter. It is in the same location as the couplet though... Looks like the couplet is south, outside of the tornado warning box? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EricHaley Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 There looks to be some activity west of York... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 16, 2014 Author Share Posted June 16, 2014 That cell in N IA is really cranking and that warning polygon needs to be redone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 Looks like the couplet is south, outside of the tornado warning box? Well, that's weird.... It is south of the TOR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 Looks like a TDS on the CC but it could be ground clutter. It is in the same location as the couplet though... Edit: couplet has weakened with the latest scan Nope. Likely just inflow dust/debris. A TDS is associated with a distinct couplet. Looks like the couplet is south, outside of the tornado warning box? Would appear so. Not terribly tight yet, but looking more impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 That cell in N IA is really cranking and that warning polygon needs to be redone. And we have that stupid (though small-scale) radar hole... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawkers Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 On another note, the elevated junk in NE/EC NEB has really struggled... amazing that it hasn't exploded given the environment, even if it is on the cool side of the OFB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 That cell in N IA is really cranking and that warning polygon needs to be redone. They're aware. New polygon coming up. Edit: i thought... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 you mean the MPX/DMX radar hole (halfway inbetween) ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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