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Significant Severe Events: June 14th-19th


andyhb

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Alpena's an EF4 per damage assessment toolkit as well.

 

If Coleridge happens to get upgraded, it would be the second straight year with a three consecutive violent tornado day span (Rozel, Shawnee and Moore on 5/18-20 last year).

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Coleridge has been left as a strong EF3.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OAX&product=PNS&issuedby=OAX&glossary=1&format=txt

COLERIDGE TORNADO #2...

RATING: EF-3

PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 8.24 MILES

PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 1.17 MILES

FATALITIES: 0

INJURIES: 0

START DATE: JUNE 17, 2014

START TIME: 809 PM CDT

START LOCATION: 3.42 NORTHWEST OF COLERIDGE

END DATE: JUNE 17, 2014

END TIME: 855 PM CDT

END LOCATION: 1.93 MILES NORTHEAST OF COLERIDGE

THIS WAS THE STRONGEST OF THE TORNADOES THAT THE CEDAR COUNTY

SUPERCELL PRODUCED. THIS TORNAOD DEVELOPED TO THE NORTHWEST OF

COLERIDGE AND MOVED SLOWLY EAST SOUTHEAST JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE

CITY OF COLERDIGE. AS THE TORNADO NEARED 567TH AVE THE TORANDO

TURNED TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CITY PRODUCING

SOME SIGNIFICANT STRUCTURAL DAMAGE ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF

COLERIDGE. THE TORNADO CONTINUED SOUTH UNTIL NEARING 874TH ROAD

WHERE THE FOWARD SPEED FURTHER SLOWED...AND THE TORNADO CHANGED

TO AN EASTERLY MOVEMENT WHILE BECOMING RAIN-WRAPPED. THE EASTERN

DIRECTION OCCURRED FOR A HALF MILE BEFORE THE TORNADO MOVED ALMOST

DUE NORTH ALONG 568TH AVE WHILE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENING. THE MOST

SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE...WHICH WAS STRONG EF3...OCCURRED TO THE NORTH

OF COLERIDGE ALONG 876TH ROAD. HERE...TWO FARM HOUSES WERE

DESTROYED DOWN TO THE FOUNDATION AND TREES WERE SNAPPED AND

DEBARKED.

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Alpena's an EF4 per damage assessment toolkit as well.

 

Official product:

 

 

 

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD

1050 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR ALPENA SD TORNADO EVENT...

A VIOLENT...DAMAGING...TORNADO DEVELOPED EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...

JUNE 18 2014...SOUTHEAST OF LANE SD AND TRAVELED NORTH. THE TORNADO

WAS ON THE GROUND FOR OVER 40 MINUTES AND AFFECTED TWO FAMILY FARMS

ALONG ITS ROUTE WITH ONE FAMILY AT HOME DURING THE TORNADO. THE

FAMILY HEARD THE TORNADO WARNING AND MOVED TO THEIR BASEMENT AS THE

TORNADO APPROACHED. THE TORNADO INCREASED IN STRENGTH AND REACHED

ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY...PRODUCING 170 MPH WINDS...NEAR THEIR LOCATION.

WHILE IN THEIR SHELTER...DEBRIS FELL UPON THEM RESULTING IN A MINOR

INJURY AND THE DEATH OF A FAMILY PET. BOTH THE HUSBAND AND HIS WIFE

...AS WELL AS OTHER FAMILY MEMBERS...CREDIT THE EARLY WARNING FOR

THEIR SAFETY. THE TORNADO WARNING WAS ISSUED 45 MINUTES BEFORE THE

TORNADO IMPACTED THEIR RESIDENCE.

.APLENA SD TORNADO...

RATING: EF-4

ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 170 MPH

PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 11.65 MILES

PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 880 YARDS/HALF MILE

FATALITIES: NONE

INJURIES: ONE

START DATE: JUN 18 2014

START TIME: 743 PM CDT

START LOCATION: 2 MILES SE OF LANE SD

END DATE: JUN 18 2014

END TIME: 825 PM CDT

END LOCATION: 2 MILES NW OF APLENA SD

EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES

TORNADOES INTO THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES.

EF0...WEAK......65 TO 85 MPH

EF1...WEAK......86 TO 110 MPH

EF2...STRONG....111 TO 135 MPH

EF3...STRONG....136 TO 165 MPH

EF4...VIOLENT...166 TO 200 MPH

EF5...VIOLENT...>200 MPH

NOTE:

THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO

CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT AND PUBLICATION IN

NWS STORM DATA.

$

HEITKAMP

WARNING COORDINATION METEOROLOGIST

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The track map is quite interesting (source)

AFceiUX.jpg

Can someone notify OAX they have an error in their Laurel #3 end time?

 

.LAUREL TORNADO #3...

RATING: EF-2

PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 8.04 MILES

PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 750 YARDS

FATALITIES: 0

INJURIES: 0

START DATE: JUNE 17, 2014

START TIME: 945 PM CDT

START LOCATION: 5.60 MILES NORTHEAST OF LAUREL

END DATE: JUNE 17, 2014

END TIME: 925 PM CDT

END LOCATION: THE TORNADO EXITED INTO DIXON COUNTY 3.79 MILES EAST

OF LAUREL

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The Coleridge wedge had some of the more intense motion you'll see in a tornado and was very likely capable of high-end violent damage, but I'm assuming TR's referring to the idea of actually rating a tornado via video, which is obviously not possible/practical, or at least not very scientific.

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The Coleridge wedge had some of the more intense motion you'll see in a tornado and was very likely capable of high-end violent damage, but I'm assuming TR's referring to the idea of actually rating a tornado via video, which is obviously not possible/practical, or at least not very scientific.

Well no you can't rate via video, I don't think Snowflake was suggesting that.

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Well no you can't rate via video, I don't think Snowflake was suggesting that.

 

I don't either, but it seemed like that's what TR was "no"-ing. I think it was pretty obvious the Coleridge tornado was visually extremely violent and I can't imagine he's suggesting it wasn't.

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The Coleridge wedge had some of the more intense motion you'll see in a tornado and was very likely capable of high-end violent damage, but I'm assuming TR's referring to the idea of actually rating a tornado via video, which is obviously not possible/practical, or at least not very scientific.

 

 

I don't either, but it seemed like that's what TR was "no"-ing. I think it was pretty obvious the Coleridge tornado was visually extremely violent and I can't imagine he's suggesting it wasn't.

 

Yup.  My apologies if I misunderstood.

 

I've only seen a bit of video, and yes, it sure looks like it could have been violent, but you can't say it was EF4+ based solely on video.

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The Enhanced Fujita Scale is a damage scale. In order for a tornado to be rated 'violent' it has to do that type of damage based on current policy. With that said many tornadoes are at their most violent while hitting nothing but telephone poles and open fields. I agree based on visual evidence the tornado was undoubtedly violent, but you can't rate a tornado based on video under most circumstances. 

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The Enhanced Fujita Scale is a damage scale. In order for a tornado to be rated 'violent' it has to do that type of damage based on current policy. With that said many tornadoes are at their most violent while hitting nothing but telephone poles and open fields. I agree based on visual evidence the tornado was undoubtedly violent, but you can't rate a tornado based on video under most circumstances. 

Yes, which is why we are saying if it had hit anything it would have been capable of damage to that magnitude...

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Yes, which is why we are saying if it had hit anything it would have been capable of damage to that magnitude...

Lol. How much does this situation occur? Too many to count?

My idea, and yes I know it's not an original idea, of a rating system outside of the NWS damage assessment kind of got sht on here, and yet countless posts would lend themselves to the idea.

Damage is not equal to capacity to cause damage. Many here and elsewhere have intense interest in both metrics. Sometimes a video may be the best evidence, even if it means that it is as much an art as it is a science. Plenty of professions have been built on "art."

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Lol. How much does this situation occur? Too many to count?

My idea, and yes I know it's not an original idea, of a rating system outside of the NWS damage assessment kind of got sht on here, and yet countless posts would lend themselves to the idea.

Damage is not equal to capacity to cause damage. Many here and elsewhere have intense interest in both metrics. Sometimes a video may be the best evidence, even if it means that it is as much an art as it is a science. Plenty of professions have been built on "art."

 

The problem is that assigning ratings would imply that there's some underlying objective, credible method for discerning between each point on the scale, and if you're relying on apparent visual intensity I don't think that's possible. You can broadly differentiate between a weak, moderate and strong/violent tornado I suppose, but I don't think that really accomplishes anything or adds any value beyond the EF-scale.

 

It's well-known that the EF-scale has several shortcomings, the biggest being the sparsity of high-end DIs (and DIs in general), but barring some big advances in technology and/or understanding, I don't know that there's much to be done about it. There are always going to be high-end violent tornadoes that do little damage and go into the history books as just another EF2 or EF3. I suppose you could keep a list of tornadoes that appear to have been underrated for this reason, but most of them are probably already well-known, and again I dunno what value that'd provide.

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Surprised by the EF3 rating as well. Comparing this to the Marquette, KS EF4 on 4/14/12, I thought this tornado was much stronger. I believe Reed said he got probes into this tornado. 

 

I asked the other day and apparently they did collect data and Reed's supposed to be working on a paper to be done later in the year. Take it for what it's worth, but I can't help being skeptical until I see it for myself.

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The problem is that assigning ratings would imply that there's some underlying objective, credible method for discerning between each point on the scale, and if you're relying on apparent visual intensity I don't think that's possible. You can broadly differentiate between a weak, moderate and strong/violent tornado I suppose, but I don't think that really accomplishes anything or adds any value beyond the EF-scale.

It's well-known that the EF-scale has several shortcomings, the biggest being the sparsity of high-end DIs (and DIs in general), but barring some big advances in technology and/or understanding, I don't know that there's much to be done about it. There are always going to be high-end violent tornadoes that do little damage and go into the history books as just another EF2 or EF3. I suppose you could keep a list of tornadoes that appear to have been underrated for this reason, but most of them are probably already well-known, and again I dunno what value that'd provide.

That's a point well taken, but eventually these high-end tornados without EF-4 or 5 ratings will get lost in the records.

Is there a reason the EF scale doesn't significantly takes into account width of damage path, duration, speed of motion, etc.? I think these factors would often equalize the rating system for tornados with high destructive potential that lack individual high-end damage points due to not hitting any sturdy enough structures.

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There is a general correlation between width and intensity, but it's tenuous and not clear-cut enough that you could draw any real conclusions from it. There have been half-mile wide F1s before and there have been F5s that were 100 or 200 yards wide. Depending on the surveyor, translation speed (which I'm assuming is what you mean by speed of motion?) is taken into account to the extent that a slower-moving tornado is assumed to cause more damage because of a longer residence time over a given structure.

 

I do think more can be done to identify high-end tornadoes, but ultimately estimating tornado intensity via damage is just a very difficult and imperfect system and there's only so much you can do when a tornado doesn't strike any high-end DIs.

 

There are some interesting things in this paper by Edwards et al. in regard to estimating tornado intensity if you haven't read it.

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