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Significant Severe Events: June 14th-19th


andyhb

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Storm is dying... looks like CINH might be killing it. Dunno. I'd say the trifecta has been completed successfully though.

 

Agreed on both counts. As for the trifecta, I think there's at least an argument to be made that this was the best three-day stretch of storm chasing on record in the Plains. I'm sure similar stretches occurred and went unfulfilled before the hobby exploded in popularity and intensity circa 2003-5, but still.

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And it could continue for a fourth day...

 

Even though this has been a borderline-historic stretch regionally that may not be repeated for decades, I think this really is the end of the road this evening. The dynamics and kinematics tomorrow are not really supportive of high-end severe.

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I should rephrase to clarify what I meant about a fourth day... The SPC is showing that it could go for a fourth day. That is my only basis for that statement, and do not disagree with anyone's (especially ones that are more scientifically backed) opinions. I personally think the people that live in this region need a break, especially those near rivers.

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so who here took a look at the 00Z sounding at aberdeen?

 

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/upper/abr.gif

 

I just did, and something on there scares me a bit in potential confirmation. take a look at the area between 750hPa and 700hPa. notice how the parcel goes up moist up to this point then the bottom drops out near 725 hPa, dropping 5C in less than 50 hPa before going up in its thunderstorm profile. something similar was projected to happen on the NAM here in the twin cities (never did happen here). but with it happening now, the results seem to be happening a bit further west. just hope we don't see something similar here tomorrow.

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Not just cap in Eastern Nebraska - but shortwave ridging... could see it in the vis satellite with the curvature of the mid level clouds - would make sense with the shortwave trough moving in from the west... believe SD was north of that ridging and under the influence still of the trough to the north

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