Thunder Road Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 that MCD is not for the southeastern part of the state in the 1630 they treated central and southeast separately, likely a new MCD later on for FSD area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 18, 2014 Author Share Posted June 18, 2014 that MCD is not for the southeastern part of the state in the 1630 they treated central and southeast separately, likely a new MCD later on for FSD area Yeah I noticed that, the watch is out for central SD and south central ND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 18, 2014 Author Share Posted June 18, 2014 Crazy elephant trunk tornado from the Cherry Co. cell yesterday. https://twitter.com/stormtimelapse/status/479241404221116416 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 They did the best they could given that the past two days were heavily mesoscale driven, and the PDS watch on Monday was perfectly placed. Strongly agree. The high-end PDS watch an hour before surface based storms began was a bold move in defiance of most numerical guidance. Overall, the past two days have been humbling from an NWP perspective. Like you and Jeff, I'm leaning towards today producing another significantly tornadic supercell in SD/NE/IA. Around lunchtime Monday, regardless of the details depicted by CAMs, I started getting really excited just based on sfc obs and pattern recognition. That pattern has not changed a lot since, with extremely rich moisture continuing to stream in on SE to ESE low-level winds beneath adequate deep-layer shear. Most importantly, LCLs are once again quite low over a wide area, not just right along a boundary. The only thing that can prevent mayhem in these scenarios is the cap. It's the classic look of major tornado days in E NE and E SD (Columbus, Manchester, Bowdle, etc.)... sometimes you go years without seeing it, now we're seeing it three days in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 18, 2014 Author Share Posted June 18, 2014 Like you and Jeff, I'm leaning towards today producing another significantly tornadic supercell in SD/NE/IA. Around lunchtime Monday, regardless of the details depicted by CAMs, I started getting really excited just based on sfc obs and pattern recognition. That pattern has not changed a lot since, with extremely rich moisture continuing to stream in on SE to ESE low-level winds beneath adequate deep-layer shear. Most importantly, LCLs are once again quite low over a wide area, not just right along a boundary. The only thing that can prevent mayhem in these scenarios is the cap. It's the classic look of major tornado days in E NE and E SD (Columbus, Manchester, Bowdle, etc.)... sometimes you go years without seeing it, now we're seeing it three days in a row. Most recent HRRR is showing an intense cell moving into a very potent environment later on in SE SD. Considering its UH progs have been off the last couple of days and especially yesterday (might also have to do with problems with its convective mode), I would assume that could be a prolific tornado producer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 18, 2014 Author Share Posted June 18, 2014 Some more incredible pictures of the past two days here: https://www.facebook.com/FaceOfAStorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfgmfg Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 HRRR site seems to be down for me (503 error), are they doing some maintenance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Humboldt Co, SD tornado from yesterday rated EF2. Also interesting snippet from the PNS: PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD152 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR HUMBOLDT SD TORNADO EVENT...A BRIEF TORNADO DEVELOPED LATE TUESDAY EVENING...JUNE 17 2014...SOUTHEAST OF HUMBOLDT SD AND TRAVELED TO THE NORTHWEST. THE TORNADOWAS ON THE GROUND FOR 18 MINUTES AND AFFECTED TWO FAMILY RESIDENCES ALONGITS ROUTE WITH ONE FAMILY AT HOME DURING THE TORNADO. THE FAMILY WAS INBED AS THE STORM APPROACHED AND RECEIVED A CALL FROM THEIR DAUGHTERINFORMING THEM OF THE TORNADO AND THE WARNING THAT WAS ISSUED FOR THEIRLOCATION. THEY IMMEDIATELY WENT TO THE BASEMENT FOR SHELTER AND A FEWMINUTES LATER THE TORNADO STRUCK THEIR HOME. THEY RECEIVED NO INJURIESAND TODAY CREDIT THEIR DAUGHTER AND THE WARNING FOR THE SAFETY..HUMBOLDT SD TORNADO...RATING: EF-2ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 125 MPHMPH PATH LENGTH/STATUTE/: 3.43 MILESMILES PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 400 YARDSFATALITIES: NONEINJURIES: NONESTART DATE: JUN 17 2014START TIME: 1032 PM CDTSTART LOCATION: 3.5 MILES SSE OF HUMBOLDT SDEND DATE: JUN 17 2014END TIME: 1050 PM CDTEND LOCATION: 1.5 MILES SW OF HUMBOLDT SDEF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIESTORNADOES INTO THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES.EF0...WEAK......65 TO 85 MPHEF1...WEAK......86 TO 110 MPHEF2...STRONG....111 TO 135 MPHEF3...STRONG....136 TO 165 MPHEF4...VIOLENT...166 TO 200 MPHEF5...VIOLENT...>200 MPHNOTE:THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TOCHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT AND PUBLICATION INNWS STORM DATA.$HEITKAMP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Most recent HRRR is showing an intense cell moving into a very potent environment later on in SE SD. Considering its UH progs have been off the last couple of days and especially yesterday (might also have to do with problems with its convective mode), I would assume that could be a prolific tornado producer.Have to agree with this strongly. A cell flaring up once again in an area with extreme instability, good speed/directional shear could become a violent tornado. The HRRR has been outstanding with nailing down the last two days inside of 6-8 hours. Watch out from Mitchell area eastward toward the MN/IA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Have to agree with this strongly. A cell flaring up once again in an area with extreme instability, good speed/directional shear could become a violent tornado. The HRRR has been outstanding with nailing down the last two days inside of 6-8 hours. Watch out from Mitchell area eastward toward the MN/IA border. Last two days have already changed you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 18, 2014 Author Share Posted June 18, 2014 Cue the trumpets. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1065NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0329 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD/NERN NEB AND VICINITYCONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELYVALID 182029Z - 182200ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENTSUMMARY...SEVERE/TORNADO RISK IS GRADUALLY INCREASING ATTM ACROSSTHE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE POSSIBLE.DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A GRADUALLYINCREASING/DEEPENING CU FIELD ACROSS SERN SD AND ADJACENT NRNNEB...NEAR AND E OF A SURFACE LOW ANALYZED E OF ANW ATTM. A MOISTBOUNDARY LAYER INVOF THE LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED/ESEWD-ALIGNED WARMFRONT HAS BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...WITHMIXED-LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG INDICATED.THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL SELY FLOW VEERINGTO SWLY WITH HEIGHT AND INCREASING TO 30-40 KT AT MID LEVELS ISYIELDING AN ENVIRONMENT QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS -- ANDASSOCIATED SEVERE/TORNADO POTENTIAL. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOREVOLUTION OF THE CU FIELD ACROSS THIS REGION FOR TIMING OF POSSIBLEWW ISSUANCE...GOSS/MEAD.. 06/18/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Heads up to those chasing in SE SD today: BREAKING via KSFY's Mark Roper: Four lanes of I-29 will be closed off with sandbags to form a levee in North Sioux City to force flooding into McCook Lake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Humboldt Co, SD tornado from yesterday rated EF2. Also interesting snippet from the PNS: PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 152 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014 ...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR HUMBOLDT SD TORNADO EVENT... A BRIEF TORNADO DEVELOPED LATE TUESDAY EVENING...JUNE 17 2014... SOUTHEAST OF HUMBOLDT SD AND TRAVELED TO THE NORTHWEST. THE TORNADO WAS ON THE GROUND FOR 18 MINUTES AND AFFECTED TWO FAMILY RESIDENCES ALONG ITS ROUTE WITH ONE FAMILY AT HOME DURING THE TORNADO. THE FAMILY WAS IN BED AS THE STORM APPROACHED AND RECEIVED A CALL FROM THEIR DAUGHTER INFORMING THEM OF THE TORNADO AND THE WARNING THAT WAS ISSUED FOR THEIR LOCATION. THEY IMMEDIATELY WENT TO THE BASEMENT FOR SHELTER AND A FEW MINUTES LATER THE TORNADO STRUCK THEIR HOME. THEY RECEIVED NO INJURIES AND TODAY CREDIT THEIR DAUGHTER AND THE WARNING FOR THE SAFETY. .HUMBOLDT SD TORNADO... RATING: EF-2 ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 125 MPH MPH PATH LENGTH/STATUTE/: 3.43 MILES MILES PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 400 YARDS FATALITIES: NONE INJURIES: NONE START DATE: JUN 17 2014 START TIME: 1032 PM CDT START LOCATION: 3.5 MILES SSE OF HUMBOLDT SD END DATE: JUN 17 2014 END TIME: 1050 PM CDT END LOCATION: 1.5 MILES SW OF HUMBOLDT SD EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES INTO THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES. EF0...WEAK......65 TO 85 MPH EF1...WEAK......86 TO 110 MPH EF2...STRONG....111 TO 135 MPH EF3...STRONG....136 TO 165 MPH EF4...VIOLENT...166 TO 200 MPH EF5...VIOLENT...>200 MPH NOTE: THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT AND PUBLICATION IN NWS STORM DATA. $ HEITKAMP Yup. I couldn't believe how good the home owner's spirits were for just having had his home destroyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Solid mid-upper 70s dew points across SE SD right now, with 79 F at Mitchell. The corn is finally making its presence felt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 18, 2014 Author Share Posted June 18, 2014 Solid mid-upper 70s dew points across SE SD right now, with 79 F at Mitchell. The corn is finally making its presence felt! Deep moisture is again ridiculous, 17-20˚C dewpoints at H85 across southeastern SD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 6500 j/kg of SBCAPE along the NE/SD border via mesoanalysis. Will be interesting to see if instability can somewhat offset the weaker flow. <25kts at/above 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Will anything that develops be near stationary like last evening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Will anything that develops be near stationary like last evening? Given very strong veering with height and relatively modest upper-level flow, they won't be moving much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Pegging over 7000 J/kg SB/MUCAPE now across southeast SD. Keep the juices flowing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 18, 2014 Author Share Posted June 18, 2014 EF3 tornado confirmed in MT from yesterday, strongest tornado ever confirmed in the Billings CWA. https://twitter.com/NWSBillings/status/479381792114221058 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfgmfg Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 EF3 tornado confirmed in MT from yesterday, strongest tornado ever confirmed in the Billings CWA. PDF report here with some pictures. http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/byz/local_news/2014/2014_06_17_Severe_Public_Report.pdf Trailer home: Old A-Frame school house: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 18, 2014 Author Share Posted June 18, 2014 Couple of obvious boundaries on the FSD radar near the city, those could be quite problematic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Couple of obvious boundaries on the FSD radar near the city, those could be quite problematic. And they're colliding. Getting a not so good feeling about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 All 4 Pilger tor now 4s, one "at least" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 All 4 Pilger tor now 4s, one "at least" Yeah, crazy for sure! Anyone know offhand the record for the most violent tornadoes produced by one supercell. This one has got to be up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 18, 2014 Author Share Posted June 18, 2014 All 4 Pilger tor now 4s, one "at least" That's just amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Yeah, crazy for sure! Anyone know offhand the record for the most violent tornadoes produced by one supercell. This one has got to be up there. Supercell "L" from Dr. Fujita's survey of Palm Sunday 1965 spawned six F4s, including the Strongsville tornado (which may have been F5). The supercell tracked from SE of Lafayette, IN, to the Cleveland metro area. I'm not sure whether this supercell produced a record, but it's off the top of my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 18, 2014 Author Share Posted June 18, 2014 From Reed: https://twitter.com/reedtimmerTVN/status/479398570282344448 Also there is something going west of O'Neill, NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Cap busted in northern NE now. Omaha says no three at once https://twitter.com/nwsomaha/status/479397005798555648 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Apparently there was a 5th tornado, an EF0, not listed on the graphic. A supercell thunderstorm moved across portions of northeast Nebraska Monday afternoon, 6/16/2014. The storm quickly became tornadic and produced 5 tornadoes (note, the map only shows the 4 strong EF4 tornado tracks, with a direct hit on the town of Pilger, Nebraska, with an estimated population of about 350 people. The area was in a Moderate Risk of severe weather. A tornado watch was issued around 305 pm Monay, and the first tornado warning for the area was issued around 341 pm. The tornado hit Pilger around 418 pm. Each of the four tornadoes were rated as EF4 on the Enhanced Fujita Scale and 1 tornado was rated EF0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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