trapperman Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Not to interrupt what's going on but anyone see this pic of the Pilger tornadoes from yesterday? If that thing on the left is a third tornado then it becomes even more legendary. Not from my vantage point. It was twin mesos though and indeed the one to the west almost pulled an Elkhart but we never saw that third funnel touch down. However the day was so ridiculous with so many tors and for a good half hour there was never one moment without two on the ground and it's very possible we missed it, although there were four of us with eyes on the whole thing beginning to end. Shaky video, noob commentary, this is what happens when you have only ever seen quick spinups and an ef0... I'm ruined for life... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 that storm is dead. outflow way out ahead of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 At the end of the long and seemingly endless road of miserable patterns, spectacular last-minute busts, and everything in between, it turns out 2014 in the Plains wasn't unimpressive. It just all came down to a 36-hour, 200-mile spatiotemporal window. Unreal.I hate you a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 18, 2014 Author Share Posted June 18, 2014 The vids of the Pilger tornado with large objects flying long distances/to high altitudes and even what appears to be a house flying remind me of the Pampa/Elie tornadoes, except with a wider damage path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 I hate you a little. Well I saw yesterday but then came home today like a ^$@^#$ moron, so you can cut that hate in half. Gotta be the most bizarre chase year on record. Was on pace to sit comfortably in the hall of shame next to '88 et al. until the 11th hour, then two of the best days of the decade drop practically out of nowhere. After the unimaginable time, money, energy, life so many pour into this activity, a humbling reminder of how it really all comes down to the best ~3-5% of setups (structure, sunsets and pretty photos aside). Someone new or ultra casual who happened to choose this two-day sequence and played it right could've arguably outdone the last 50 chases of someone serious and established who's chosen less wisely of late -- in fact, that's precisely what happened in some cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 18, 2014 Author Share Posted June 18, 2014 Worth mentioning how much that violent Coleridge tornado reminded me of Bennington, Manchester and Bowdle at various stages in its life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Not to interrupt what's going on but anyone see this pic of the Pilger tornadoes from yesterday? If that thing on the left is a third tornado then it becomes even more legendary. I believe there were only two. A third one tried to come down (on the left of the picture), but I don't think it even made it to the funnel stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 That cell west of KFSD holding itself together pretty nice. Meso wouldn't have to tighten up a whole lot to possibly squeeze out one more TOR warning before we call it a night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 The storm near Spencer, IA looks like the real deal aloft. Wish we had a low-level view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 18, 2014 Author Share Posted June 18, 2014 The storm near Spencer, IA looks like the real deal aloft. Wish we had a low-level view. It's going right over Royal, whatever is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 I suspect the Spencer storm is probably near-sfc based, given temps in the upper 70s and dewpoints in the mid 70s surrounding it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 18, 2014 Author Share Posted June 18, 2014 Sheesh the rotation aloft just went off the scale on the latest scan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Worth mentioning how much that violent Coleridge tornado reminded me of Bennington, Manchester and Bowdle at various stages in its life. Agreed -- those are exactly the three I was comparing it to earlier. I think Manchester is still king in terms of being a consistently sunlit, rain-free high-contrast wedge, but this probably comes in second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Well I saw yesterday but then came home today like a ^$@^#$ moron, so you can cut that hate in half. Gotta be the most bizarre chase year on record. Was on pace to sit comfortably in the hall of shame next to '88 et al. until the 11th hour, then two of the best days of the decade drop practically out of nowhere. After the unimaginable time, money, energy, life so many pour into this activity, a humbling reminder of how it really all comes down to the best ~3-5% of setups (structure, sunsets and pretty photos aside). Someone new or ultra casual who happened to choose this two-day sequence and played it right could've arguably outdone the last 50 chases of someone serious and established who's chosen less wisely of late -- in fact, that's precisely what happened in some cases. You're killing me lol. I've been out chasing a lot this year, everywhere from Kansas to Wyoming(Even a little in PA on 6/11) and then this happens. I am on vacation this week as well, but came down with strep on Sunday and simply didn't have the energy to drive. Just the effort put in this year and then having to miss the last two days is something that I won't forget for a long time. That's cool you got out there though, I know you've been waiting for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Will likely try to chase again tomorrow, given what this warm front has produced the last two days. A bit surprised at only 5% TOR from SPC on the Day 1. Although if I remember right, the 06z Day 1 today was only a broadbrush 5%, and then the 10% was added west at 13z and east at 1630z, so let's see. And in fact initially I think the eastern 10% was all east of FSD's CWA... There's better mid-level flow tomorrow, and a slightly stronger LLJ (although backed, reducing low-level SRH a bit), so it seems like a go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Well I saw yesterday but then came home today like a ^$@^#$ moron, so you can cut that hate in half. Gotta be the most bizarre chase year on record. Was on pace to sit comfortably in the hall of shame next to '88 et al. until the 11th hour, then two of the best days of the decade drop practically out of nowhere. After the unimaginable time, money, energy, life so many pour into this activity, a humbling reminder of how it really all comes down to the best ~3-5% of setups (structure, sunsets and pretty photos aside). Someone new or ultra casual who happened to choose this two-day sequence and played it right could've arguably outdone the last 50 chases of someone serious and established who's chosen less wisely of late -- in fact, that's precisely what happened in some cases. If only I had gone chasing these few couple of days instead of that blasted late April setup... But these two days pretty much saved the 2014 chase season, for those who went and caught the tornadoes. Just incredible supercells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 18, 2014 Author Share Posted June 18, 2014 Interesting that 6/16 and 6/17 deliver again in the Northern/Central Plains. 6/16/92 -> Chandler, MN F5 tornado + outbreak 6/17/09 -> Aurora, NE tornado 6/16/10 -> Dupree, SD cyclic supercell/tornado fest (somewhat similar to the past couple days) 6/17/10 -> ND/MN tornado outbreak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Interesting that 6/16 and 6/17 deliver again in the Northern/Central Plains. 6/16/92 -> Chandler, MN F5 tornado + outbreak 6/17/09 -> Aurora, NE tornado 6/16/10 -> Dupree, SD cyclic supercell/tornado fest (somewhat similar to the past couple days) 6/17/10 -> ND/MN tornado outbreak Also interesting how 1992 and 2009 were fairly quiet till June, and how both preceded strong El Nino winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 18, 2014 Author Share Posted June 18, 2014 Also interesting how 1992 and 2009 were fairly quiet till June, and how both preceded strong El Nino winters. 1992 was coming out of a strong Nino winter (also affected by Pinatubo), 92-93 was neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 18, 2014 Author Share Posted June 18, 2014 Damage reported near Royal, IA from that storm earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 1992 was coming out of a strong Nino winter (also affected by Pinatubo), 92-93 was neutral. Doh! Of course, fail by me. Thanks for the correction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Well I saw yesterday but then came home today like a ^$@^#$ moron, so you can cut that hate in half. Gotta be the most bizarre chase year on record. Was on pace to sit comfortably in the hall of shame next to '88 et al. until the 11th hour, then two of the best days of the decade drop practically out of nowhere. After the unimaginable time, money, energy, life so many pour into this activity, a humbling reminder of how it really all comes down to the best ~3-5% of setups (structure, sunsets and pretty photos aside). Someone new or ultra casual who happened to choose this two-day sequence and played it right could've arguably outdone the last 50 chases of someone serious and established who's chosen less wisely of late -- in fact, that's precisely what happened in some cases. Ahh sorry, figured you got yesterday too. Even so... Monday an excellent prize. perhaps I'll shift my hate to Quincy. I was mainly waiting for the season to totally suck though had an inkling June might have something up its sleeve. Now to see if more chasecationers switch to June and get death ridged next year heh. Wild few days regardless even other than the most talked about tors. Honestly good to see those who are out all year finally get something decent. Prob more rough for Plains guys who were working or gave up on 2014 so didn't go out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 The cherry county/ sand hills storm was maybe better than the wedge https://twitter.com/mikeumsc/status/479235943988076545 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Time to rock and roll again today, Wednesday. NAM was too far north with afternoon redevelopment; but, likely correct in showing robust inflow feeding supercell(s). HRRR is down in Iowa, and probably more reasonable given current outflow boundary position. Starting downstairs, surface turning along the boundary will be excellent. LLJ up to 850 looks adequate; it should become locally good near supercells. Turning from surface to 500 mb is robust. At 300/200 little additional turning is noted; but, I don't see the veer back issue anymore. Speed at jet stream will become adequate for June by chase time. Probably a good day for a 15% TOR. Not looking to debate the need; just making my forecast. One might take care to monitor/nowcast east and west of high-res radar forecasts, just in case. Good luck; chase safely; and, keep people impacted in our prayers/thoughts. All in all I'm looking forward to more good pictures tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Heading to Norfolk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 As much fun as watching these supercells in the plains are (jealous of some of these awesome storm structures), I'm ready for my own action in the Grt Lakes region today. almost the exact same area in the TOR risk today. Wonder what Round 3 holds for out there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Ahh sorry, figured you got yesterday too. Even so... Monday an excellent prize. perhaps I'll shift my hate to Quincy. I was mainly waiting for the season to totally suck though had an inkling June might have something up its sleeve. Now to see if more chasecationers switch to June and get death ridged next year heh. Wild few days regardless even other than the most talked about tors. Honestly good to see those who are out all year finally get something decent. Prob more rough for Plains guys who were working or gave up on 2014 so didn't go out. I've all but given up, and can only take off so many days (plus I despise long drives with questionable rewards) so the year is all but done for me and all I can say is good riddance and better luck next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 HRRR wants to make the storm of the day the one east of Chamberlain along I-90. Though unless the WF surges north that's probably too far north to target Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 also worth noting that just south of FSD is clear. Most of the area was under a stratus deck yesterday, so initiation may happen a bit earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Here is a GIF of the radar loop for the Humboldt loop-de-loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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