cyclone77 Posted June 14, 2014 Share Posted June 14, 2014 IMO, IA looks much better on Monday on the new GFS than how Saturday is looking Monday is definitely looking pretty nice on both the 12z GFS and the new 12z Euro. Huge cape/theta-e nosing up through Iowa beneath very nice shear profiles. Both the Euro and the GFS pop off some vigorous convection from northeast NE down into central IA. The areas between Sioux City and Des Moines are looking very good at this point. Hope models continue to advertise this in coming runs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 14, 2014 Share Posted June 14, 2014 Monday is definitely looking pretty nice on both the 12z GFS and the new 12z Euro. Huge cape/theta-e nosing up through Iowa beneath very nice shear profiles. Both the Euro and the GFS pop off some vigorous convection from northeast NE down into central IA. The areas between Sioux City and Des Moines are looking very good at this point. Hope models continue to advertise this in coming runs.. Glad to see someone else seeing this. Would be the day I would chase. The 12z NAM is impressive environment around Sioux Falls if a storm can go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 14, 2014 Share Posted June 14, 2014 Monday is definitely looking pretty nice on both the 12z GFS and the new 12z Euro. Huge cape/theta-e nosing up through Iowa beneath very nice shear profiles. Both the Euro and the GFS pop off some vigorous convection from northeast NE down into central IA. The areas between Sioux City and Des Moines are looking very good at this point. Hope models continue to advertise this in coming runs.. Regarding Monday-- I've hardly ever seen the "cold-bias" GFS have a CAPE of 5500 J/kg (applies to Iowa/Nebraska on Monday) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawkers Posted June 14, 2014 Share Posted June 14, 2014 New MCD out for the main threat area... Now mentioning the possibility of a strong tornado, something they have yet to mention till now. Seemed to be hitting the very large hail/tornado threat more so, for now at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 14, 2014 Author Share Posted June 14, 2014 Moderate risk extended into the upslope regime along the KS/NE border for the 20z update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 14, 2014 Share Posted June 14, 2014 Moderate risk extended into the upslope regime along the KS/NE border for the 20z update. Makes sense given the monster updraft helicity tracks the HRRR keeps spitting out in that region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 14, 2014 Author Share Posted June 14, 2014 Currently 85/67 at Lincoln. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 14, 2014 Share Posted June 14, 2014 Currently 85/67 at Lincoln. 83/68 at BIE and 82/70 at MYZ both with backed sfc winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted June 14, 2014 Share Posted June 14, 2014 The moisture axis looks to be sitting right over Omaha with significant tornado parameters already up to 4. Of course capping is an issue so far east. Areas back to the SW near the CO/NE border have a better shot at initiation by 00Z but with less of a significant tornado potential than that of areas farther east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 14, 2014 Share Posted June 14, 2014 Moderate risk extended into the upslope regime along the KS/NE border for the 20z update. Severe watch issued for upslope regime (CO, Ogallala NE) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 14, 2014 Share Posted June 14, 2014 Eastern NE looks quite impressive on Monday on the 18z NAM.. just west of Omaha prior to CI with 6000 j/kg of SBCAPE in the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 14, 2014 Author Share Posted June 14, 2014 Eastern NE looks quite impressive on Monday on the 18z NAM.. just west of Omaha prior to CI with 6000 j/kg of SBCAPE in the area Lol the hodographs are pretty stupidly large. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 14, 2014 Share Posted June 14, 2014 We're sitting in Blue Hill now. Hazy with a Lind of cu trying to develop to the NW and a slightly east of due south sfc wind. Edit: just looked outside again and we're SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 14, 2014 Share Posted June 14, 2014 cu slowly being more agitated at the triple point and with the wave approaching that area should go soon as the low level lapse rates are now aimed right over that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 14, 2014 Share Posted June 14, 2014 Patiently waiting as one of the more promising potential scenarios for this year at least begins to unfold this evening. Looking at satellite and radar I do think the triple point should go shortly as noted by Thundersnow. Good luck to those who are out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 14, 2014 Share Posted June 14, 2014 Towers going up fast now to our west. Pretty much due southerlies here now, southeast of Hastings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 14, 2014 Share Posted June 14, 2014 Wondering if Hill City KS or Phillipsburg might get the honors for initiation shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 14, 2014 Author Share Posted June 14, 2014 Eastern NE looks quite impressive on Monday on the 18z NAM.. just west of Omaha prior to CI with 6000 j/kg of SBCAPE in the area 18z GFS soundings are also absurd in IA, has great shear and decent instability in MN as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 14, 2014 Share Posted June 14, 2014 Tor watch issued for midnight with 50/20 probs for both tor and wind. I would have thought wind probs would have been higher since there was talk earlier of a possible derecho by some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 14, 2014 Share Posted June 14, 2014 LCL heights are awfully high right now across Kansas and south-central Nebraska. Environment looks the best (at the moment at least) across northeast NE and near the IA border. Will see what happens toward sunset though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 14, 2014 Share Posted June 14, 2014 35dbz aloft at 22kft at the triple point now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EricHaley Posted June 14, 2014 Share Posted June 14, 2014 And here... we... go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 14, 2014 Author Share Posted June 14, 2014 Really bubbling up quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EricHaley Posted June 14, 2014 Share Posted June 14, 2014 Two tornado warned cells already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 14, 2014 Author Share Posted June 14, 2014 Tornado reported with the cell in KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted June 14, 2014 Share Posted June 14, 2014 Chaser cam confirmed tornado on warned cell in KS. Rain wrapped now, if still on ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EricHaley Posted June 14, 2014 Share Posted June 14, 2014 It looks like the IA one is radar indicated at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted June 14, 2014 Share Posted June 14, 2014 Tornado reported with the cell in KS. That might be a false report given the high LCLs present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 14, 2014 Author Share Posted June 14, 2014 That might be a false report given the high LCLs present. It was confirmed on the chaser cam...so no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted June 14, 2014 Share Posted June 14, 2014 That might be a false report given the high LCLs present. LSR says landspout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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