andyhb Posted June 17, 2014 Author Share Posted June 17, 2014 Another very explosive mesoscale environment developing in the area of that MCD, CAPE is through the roof with effective SRH expected to strengthen in excess of 300 m2/s2 by the time storms develop (and deep layer shear is also forecast to improve). Surface winds are easterly along the boundary with mid 70s dewpoints available for inflow, could see another monster or two assuming discrete mode stays dominant for any length of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 Agreed those are some nasty sigs on velocity. Wonder if they are debating between the two nws offices. Wouldn't be surprised if we found out either already had TOG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 Mesoanalysis has an area of 6000 J/kg MUCAPE overlapping with 50kt bulk shear in the vicinity of Sioux City. If the HRRR is right, we could have a couple of big time storms there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 Northern cell now warned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 Mike Umscheid is on the Merriman, NE supercell and got an amazing structure/tornado picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 17, 2014 Author Share Posted June 17, 2014 Mike Umscheid is on the Merriman, NE supercell and got an amazing structure/tornado picture. http://twitpic.com/e6dylb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 17, 2014 Author Share Posted June 17, 2014 Excellent inflow into that cell, looks like the RFD is coming around again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 17, 2014 Author Share Posted June 17, 2014 Strong wording in the latest MCD for the area with supercells ongoing. Got a robust supercell north of Belle Fourche, SD as well. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1044NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0602 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD / N-CNTRL NEBCONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 311...313...VALID 172302Z - 180030ZTHE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 311...313...CONTINUES.SUMMARY...INCREASING PROBABILITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR VERYLARGE HAIL WITH A FEW INTENSE SUPERCELLS. THE SUPERCELL TORNADOTHREAT WILL PROBABLY INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.DISCUSSION...22Z SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS INTOTHE GREATER BLACK HILLS VICINITY TO THE E OF A DRYLINE. THE DRYLINEWILL PROBABLY SERVE AS AN AREA FOR PREFERRED STORM INITIATION OVERTHE NEXT FEW HOURS. MODIFYING THE 18Z RAP RAOB SHOWS EXTREME VALUESOF MLCAPE /3500-4500 J PER KG/ OVER WRN SD AND INTO N-CNTRL NEB.RELATIVELY COOL H5 TEMPS -13 PER THE RAP RAOB ARE CONTRIBUTING TOVERY LARGE CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 DEG C LAYER GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSERATE PROFILE. ELY WINDS STRONGLY VEERING IN THE LOW-LEVELS WITHSTRONG/INCREASING FLOW ALOFT IS FAVORING A DISCRETE SUPERCELL MODE.GIVEN THE EXTREME CAPE AND STRONG SHEAR...EXPECTING VERY LARGE /I.E.2-3 INCHES IN DIAMETER/ TO ACCOMPANY THE MOST INTENSE SUPERCELLS.THE TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE WITH ANY SUPERCELL DURING THE EARLYEVENING HOURS IN RESPONSE TO AN INTENSIFICATION IN H85 FLOW...SMITH.. 06/17/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 There's more people tweeting/watching these supercells in NE right now than there are people actually effected by them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EricHaley Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 Yeah, gotta say following #newx is getting a little repetitive... But, if it's going to keep people out of harms way, then so be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfgmfg Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 I see some chasers in Sioux County, IA. I would strongly advise against travel in this area and very especially Lyon County unless you know the area well due to roads being closed/flooded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 17, 2014 Author Share Posted June 17, 2014 Looks like possible initiation in northeast NE and that Cherry Co. storm is a beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 Shower in Cedar County, NE has some rotation above 25,000 ft. Let's see if that's what the HRRR was keying in on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 18, 2014 Author Share Posted June 18, 2014 Tornado watch issued for Siouxland until 1 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sojitodd Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 That might be some of the most impressive footage I've seen in terms of debris lofting in detail. Awesome video although I wouldn't mind if that woman's voice was edited out. Thanks for sharing it! Why would you want the woman's voice edited out? Just curious. Agree it was great footage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Looks like possible initiation in northeast NE and that Cherry Co. storm is a beast. Yep, such a classic supercell: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 I see some chasers in Sioux County, IA. I would strongly advise against travel in this area and very especially Lyon County unless you know the area well due to roads being closed/flooded Not that many read this board but I'll second this. Coming back last night was hell, and I won't go out tomorrow unless it's north of 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 18, 2014 Author Share Posted June 18, 2014 Kind of a similar evolution to the big cell yesterday going on in northeast NE right now, cluster of updrafts trying to consolidate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EricHaley Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Starting to show rotation. This is gonna explode... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ensō Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Impressive video coming out of Angus, Ontario. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=36kGJQ7AGfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 18, 2014 Author Share Posted June 18, 2014 Echo tops over 50,000 ft on the developing cell in northeast NE, looks like game on. Already some great structure on D2's cam: http://tvnweather.com/live Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Echo tops over 50,000 ft on the developing cell in northeast NE, looks like game on. Already some great structure on D2's cam: http://tvnweather.com/live Looks like it's already getting ready to tor on KFSD. And a lot of small towns around it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 18, 2014 Author Share Posted June 18, 2014 MCD for the SD tornado warned supercell. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1045NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0733 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN SDCONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 311...VALID 180033Z - 180100ZTHE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 311 CONTINUES.SUMMARY...TORNADO POTENTIAL AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR A STRONGTORNADO...INCLUDING A THREAT FOR VERY LARGE TO GIANT HAIL...WILLPROBABLY MAXIMIZE DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.DISCUSSION...THE 17/00Z RAP RAOB SHOWED EXTREME BUOYANCY /4100 J PERKG MLCAPE/ AND A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY A 14-15LOWEST 100 MB MEAN MIXING RATIO. A SUPERCELL WIND PROFILE WILLCONTINUE TO LEND A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR VERY LARGE TO GIANTHAIL /I.E. 2-4 INCHES IN DIAMETER/ AND TORNADO POTENTIAL FOR THENEXT FEW HOURS. INPUTTING THE OBSERVED STORM MOTION OF THE BUTTECOUNTY SUPERCELL INTO THE KUDX VWP YIELDS AROUND 300 M2/S2 0-3 KMSRH AND THIS MAY SIGNAL THAT THE POSSIBILITY FOR A STRONG TORNADOMAY MAXIMIZE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. IN ADDITION TO THEHAIL/TORNADO THREAT...A SEVERE WIND GUST WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INVOFANY SUPERCELL. K2WX OBSERVED A MEASURED 61 KT GUST AROUND 0008Z INHARDING COUNTY WITH THE NRN OF THE 2 DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...SMITH.. 06/18/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 interesting new tag just developed south of it and already has low-level rotation. actually eerily similar to yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 18, 2014 Author Share Posted June 18, 2014 Environment around that cell is really nasty, MLCAPE of over 5000 J/kg, effective shear over 40 kts and effective SRH of 235 m2/s2. Couplet is tightening with each new scan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EricHaley Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 It's also started to turn towards Sioux City... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 There's gonna be a violent tornado in Cedar County. The Coleridge area had an F4 on 6/23/03 (day before Manchester). Pretty similar setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 18, 2014 Author Share Posted June 18, 2014 Not to take attention away from the NE cell, but that cell in western SD is going off, really large/intense rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 TOG on that cell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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