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Significant Severe Events: June 14th-19th


andyhb

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God what is it with everyone trying to assign damage ratings based on photos posted on the forum? Can we not just wait for the official survey on Tuesday? I guarantee the emergency workers pulling survivors out of structures tonight don't care what the tornado is rated. We know it was a strong to violent tornado. We know it is a probable EF3+ tornado. Beyond that it doesn't matter right now whether it was an EF3, EF4, or EF5. What happened to these severe weather threats in the central forum? I remember a day not too long ago where we kept speculation in a separate thread.

We'll said, we should worry about the fact this town and lives were destroyed.
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very good analysis. if more convection had been able to fire anywhere close to E Nebraska today, it would've been a pretty memorable day (as if it wasn't already given the dual-wedges. And devastation in Pilger) Am pretty interested as to why that supercell lost a lot of it's intensity as it crossed the NE/IA border, it's not like it crossed a boundary and moved into a far inferior environment or something like that. I've kinda noticed a bit of a trend with supercells like this one--that put down a significant long-lived tornado-- after the main tornado dissipates, the storm disappates as well within an hour or two, and fails to produce anymore noteworthy tornadoes. Esp across the plains. (Moore '99/'13, wichita '12, SE NEB a few weeks ago, And several other examples) correct me if I'm wrong, but it just seems to happen a lot, and yes there are numerous other instances where this did not happen and it continues to put down sig tor's for an extended amount of time afterward. But it certainly seems to happen at least semi-frequently.

 

Had the HRRR (which initiated supercells all across srn NE) been right, this would've been a high-end tornado outbreak.

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High-end would constitute something that involved more than one intense supercell. Sure it was a memorable day, as far as that amazing OAX 19Z Sounding, as well as the Dual-wedges, and a variety of over things. But this is a far cry from a high-end tornado outbreak IMO.

 

Are you just trying to contradict everything I'm saying or what?

 

This supercell did more on its own than many "outbreaks" of supercells do in terms of significant tornado production.

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High-end would constitute something that involved more than one intense supercell. Sure it was a memorable day, as far as that amazing OAX 19Z Sounding, as well as the Dual-wedges, long-track strong/violent tornado, and a variety of over things. But this is a far cry from a high-end tornado outbreak IMO.

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Figured this is no more off-topic than some of the stuff earlier in this thread.

 

A bit of trivia about "twin" tornadoes - Austin, TX was visited by simultaneous "twin" tornadoes on May 4, 1922. Witnesses describe one "tornado cloud" splitting into two, one causing F2 damage and the other causing F4 damage about 2-3 miles to the east near the Capitol. Here's the eastern tornado as it dissipates with the Capitol in the foreground.

 

gMNsMvk.jpg

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Many reports/accounts also indicate that the Gainesville, GA tornado on 4/6/1936 was a pair of tornadoes that merged in town and obviously caused extensive devastation, perhaps something like what happened with those two wedge tornadoes that merged earlier.

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Satellite tornadoes are generally (though not always) weak spin-ups that interact with the parent tornado/mesocyclone. They sometimes spin up on the leading edge of gust fronts and that sorta thing. They're also more likely to be anticyclonic. There's no official definition for a "twin" tornado, but I'd use the term to refer to two separate tornadoes each with their own mesocyclone, but both associated with the same cell.

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Just got in, is it okay to post some footage in this threat? Don't want to clog.

 

Here's a tornado first touching down in Stanton. This was the first of at least three tornadoes that I witnessed over a relatively short distance. I have footage from the twin/dual tornadoes as well. In fact, at one point there were at least three funnels (2 tornadoes on the ground and 1 funnel) in the same field of sight. The "4th" one may not be anything at all, so I marked it as 3.5.

post-533-0-58871200-1402987345_thumb.jpg

 

What was really neat was the 1st tornado in that wide angle graphic, as the tube was lifting up and down, Here's a shot of it lifting back up and waving around like a garden hose:
post-533-0-86863600-1402988610_thumb.jpg

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Just got in, is it okay to post some footage in this threat? Don't want to clog.

 

Here's a tornado first touching down in Stanton. This was the first of at least three tornadoes that I witnessed over a relatively short distance. I have footage from the twin/dual tornadoes as well. In fact, at one point there were at least three funnels (2 tornadoes on the ground and 1 funnel) in the same field of sight. The "4th" one may not be anything at all, so I marked it as 3.5.

attachicon.gif3.jpg

 

What was really neat was the 1st tornado in that wide angle graphic, as the tube was lifting up and down, Here's a shot of it lifting back up and waving around like a garden hose:

 

Congrats -- cool that you made it out for this! You passed me (running around frantically trying to manage video and photography while chasing solo) at 0:12 on the second video.

 

Don't even know what to say about this event right now. It was by far my craziest chase to date, and I doubt that will be surpassed for awhile, if ever. Sad to learn of the fatalities this evening, though. Since I was chasing by myself I wasn't able to keep particularly up-to-date on anything except what directly concerned me; I was hoping that despite the obvious violence of these tornadoes, the low population density would minimize damage and casualties. It looks like Pilger got gravely unlucky.

 

That 19z OMA sounding was surreal, and the results amazingly lived up to it.

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Congrats -- cool that you made it out for this! You passed me (running around frantically trying to manage video and photography while chasing solo) at 0:12 on the second video.

 

Don't even know what to say about this event right now. It was by far my craziest chase to date, and I doubt that will be surpassed for awhile, if ever. Sad to learn of the fatalities this evening, though. Since I was chasing by myself I wasn't able to keep particularly up-to-date on anything except what directly concerned me; I was hoping that despite the obvious violence of these tornadoes, the low population density would minimize damage and casualties. It looks like Pilger got gravely unlucky.

 

That 19z OMA sounding was surreal, and the results amazingly lived up to it.

 

Good to hear the 2014 blues are over for you, although as you say it unfortunately came at a price (as it seems to often do).

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So, this is what would happen on those cap-busted days in the Central Plains where both instability and low-level shear are insanely high... if the cap would break.

 

I can honestly think of only one other environment with a parameter space as volatile as the one sampled at 19Z by the Omaha sounding... without a cap holding convection in check... and that is April 27, 2011.  The low-level shear was somewhat higher that day, but the instability being higher with this setup led to a similar balance in ingredients.

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Congrats -- cool that you made it out for this! You passed me (running around frantically trying to manage video and photography while chasing solo) at 0:12 on the second video.

Don't even know what to say about this event right now. It was by far my craziest chase to date, and I doubt that will be surpassed for awhile, if ever. Sad to learn of the fatalities this evening, though. Since I was chasing by myself I wasn't able to keep particularly up-to-date on anything except what directly concerned me; I was hoping that despite the obvious violence of these tornadoes, the low population density would minimize damage and casualties. It looks like Pilger got gravely unlucky.

That 19z OMA sounding was surreal, and the results amazingly lived up to it.

June!!! ;)

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Congrats -- cool that you made it out for this! You passed me (running around frantically trying to manage video and photography while chasing solo) at 0:12 on the second video.

 

Don't even know what to say about this event right now. It was by far my craziest chase to date, and I doubt that will be surpassed for awhile, if ever. Sad to learn of the fatalities this evening, though. Since I was chasing by myself I wasn't able to keep particularly up-to-date on anything except what directly concerned me; I was hoping that despite the obvious violence of these tornadoes, the low population density would minimize damage and casualties. It looks like Pilger got gravely unlucky.

 

That 19z OMA sounding was surreal, and the results amazingly lived up to it.

Thanks, finally something legit, as I've made four trips out here now and it took until now for an actual photogenic tornado. (let alone three)

 

I was also chasing solo and that made it particularly difficult. I managed to run video from two sources, but I got very few photos with my DSLR. I actually have to check out that memory card right now to see what I've got.

 

A full-length HD version of the twin tornadoes will be up within the next two hours. That's a huge file to upload and I didn't get into the hotel until early this morning, so.

 

Looks like another chase day, will be focusing on Iowa this afternoon...

 

Edit, here's the one clear picture I got of the first tornado, the Stanton (approaching Pilger) one, furthest on the NW I believe. Yes, a telephone pole, but traffic was crazy with scattered debris in the road and I was effectively operating four cameras at the same time if you include the cell phone:

post-533-0-88149300-1403012267_thumb.jpg

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There's the new tornado warning on the IA cell. Steve Yezek reported a brief tornado on Spotter Network on that storm. (for what it's worth)

 

Hey JoMo,

 

Did you happen to get a screen capture of it?  Or anything I can pass along to the WFO here for verification?

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Anyone word on mobile radars being out today?  That would be an incredible data set if any were.  I still can't believe that I had to sit this one out, going to be a while before I get over that.

I don't think there were. I know CSWR, OU, and TTU were out at various times, but there were no large field projects this year to keep teams out late in the season (PECAN is in 2015). Would have been a good cyclic tornadogenesis dataset and another case of tornado binary interaction (presumably).

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Here's a full-length (18+ minute) clip from the tornado family. It starts with the first tornado roping out (at 4:10 despite the video title) and then mainly focuses on the twin tornadoes, which that footage beginning a few minutes later)

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I created an animated GIF of a 4-panel view of BR, SRV, NROT, and CC products from GR2Analyst. The file is large (10 MB) and has a resolution of 1920x950 so I will link it as a normal URL only. Because the resolution is high you may need to use the zoom feature of your browser to fit it all on one screen.

 

Pilger Binary Tornado Radar Loop (GIF)

 

Pilger Binary Tornado Radar Loop (HTML5)

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Today should be an good chasing day on the northern High Plains. Keep in mind that far northwest JIT moisture is acceptable. Differential heating boundary noted from Nebraska Panhandle back into Wyoming; it may lift north to/into Montana. Low level turning will be excellent there. LLJ is not forecast to be intense, but adequate. Upper level shear, both turning and speed, impress me. Wish I'm there.

 

EDIT: Agree with Iowa 10% today.

 

Wednesday looks more interesting than SPC/Hi-res models would suggest, per pattern recognition. Western Minnesota is worth watching. Outflow will be in place from morning rain, promoting good low level turning. LLJ from 925 to 850 mb will be more impressive than today. Speed shear and turning will be good up to 500 mb. Start to get into veer-back up toward 200 mb; however, it looks like a nice set-up overall.

 

I'd expect morning rain to depart. New storms may go in the Dakotas early due to lift near the upper low and cooler mid-level temps. However a gap is noted between that rain, and rain in the Upper Midwest, over western Minnesota. Should that verify, plus Goldilocks 700 mb temps, the door is open to destabilization in a favorable environment.

 

Thursday should be a low-end 15% slight. Again SPC See Text is driven by squirlly Hi-res models more than pattern recognition. Main short-wave may be through, per GFS, which would limit activity to a small encore under the right rear/entrance quad of the speed max. Euro is slower; therefore, has a slightly better combination of instability and turning/shear with height.

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