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Significant Severe Events: June 14th-19th


andyhb

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1025

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0650 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...A SMALL PART OF CNTRL NEB

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 303...

VALID 162350Z - 170045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 303 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A DISCRETE SUPERCELL OVER CNTRL NEB WILL GRADUALLY MOVE

EWD INTO A MORE FAVORABLE TORNADO ENVIRONMENT. CONDITIONAL

PROBABILITIES FOR A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO WILL LIKEWISE INCREASE OVER

THE NEXT HR OR TWO -- PROVIDED THE STORM REMAINS STEADY-STATE.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A DISCRETE SUPERCELL WITH A HISTORY

OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR THE LOUP/GARFIELD COUNTY LINE IN CNTRL

NEB. 23Z SURFACE MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THE REMNANT OUTFLOW

BOUNDARY HAS LARGELY BECOME DIFFUSE AS SURFACE WINDS ARE FROM THE

SOUTH OVER THE NERN QUADRANT OF NEB. RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH

DEWPOINTS IN THE 68-72 DEG F RANGE RESIDE TO THE E AND SE OF THE

STORM. AS THE STORM MOVES INTO THE AREA OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR

INVOF US 281...THE COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND EXTREME CAPE SUGGEST THE

PROBABILITY FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADO WILL INCREASE.

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