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Significant Severe Events: June 14th-19th


andyhb

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1020
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0432 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NEB

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 303...

VALID 162132Z - 162230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 303 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...VOLATILE TORNADIC ENVIRONMENT FOR THE DISCRETE SUPERCELL
AS IT MOVES DOWNSTREAM TOWARDS THE MO RIVER.

DISCUSSION...THE 19Z OAX RAOB DISPLAYED AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WITH MLCAPE 4200 J PER KG WITH A VERY LARGE LOOPING
HODOGRAPH SUPPORTING 500 J PER KG EFFECTIVE SRH. RADAR DATA HAS
SHOWN THE STANTON COUNTY TORNADIC SUPERCELL CYCLE WITH PEAK
LOW-LEVEL ROTATIONAL VELOCITIES /70-80 KT/ SUPPORTING HIGH
PROBABILITIES FOR AN INTENSE TORNADO. TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S DOWNSTREAM OVER WRN IA WITHIN A VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER. CURRENT THINKING IS LONG TRACK INTENSE TORNADOES
/RELATIVELY HIGH CHANCE FOR AN EF3+ INTENSITY TORNADO/ WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE MO RIVER VALLEY AND
INTO WRN IA OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.

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(4:32:34 PM) nwsbot: OAX: Unverified/Non-NWS Report -- from Donovan Gruner (via spotternetwork.org) @ 09:31 PM UTC -- (S) Tor --  -- Spotter is 0 miles SSW of PILGER, NE ( county) [42.004/-97.057] -- Catastrophic damage, need emergency personnel ASAP. Multiple injuries (SN#17425)

Based on imagery and radar I'm already very confident that this is EF4+, unfortunately.

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