andyhb Posted June 16, 2014 Author Share Posted June 16, 2014 On another note, the elevated junk in NE/EC NEB has really struggled... amazing that it hasn't exploded given the environment, even if it is on the cool side of the OFB. Capping appears to be still holding it down but the cu field in NE is very agitated on vis sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 There's the new tornado warning on the IA cell. Steve Yezek reported a brief tornado on Spotter Network on that storm. (for what it's worth) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 87mph and 100mph wind gusts in Sioux Falls right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 16, 2014 Author Share Posted June 16, 2014 15% tor probs with very strong wording added. DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0258 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014VALID 162000Z - 171200Z...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN SD AND PARTS OF ERN NEBTHROUGH SRN MN...NRN/CNTRL IA INTO SWRN WI......THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF THE NRN AND CNTRLPLAINS INTO MID-UPPER MIDWEST......SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGINGWIND...VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES...WILL OCCUR TODAY INTO TONIGHTFROM PARTS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND CENTRAL AND EASTERNNEBRASKA EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF IOWA...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...INTOWISCONSIN. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN WILL BE FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTNEBRASKA INTO ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND IOWA THAT AFTERNOONAND EVENING...WHERE A FEW SIGNIFICANT AND/OR A VIOLENT TORNADO INADDITION TO LARGE...DAMAGING HAIL AND WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE....NRN/CNTRL PLAINS INTO UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH TONIGHT...MOST OF THE ONGOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. THE SLIGHT RISK HASBEEN EXTENDED INTO PORTIONS OF W-CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL IL. REF MCD1016 FOR MORE DETAILS. ADDITIONALLY...TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BEINCREASING ACROSS PORTION OF NEB/FAR SE SD AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OFIA. REF MCD 1015 FOR MORE DETAILS. 19Z OBSERVED RAOB FROM OAXINDICATES STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITH LARGE CYCLONICALLY CURVEDHODOGRAPH AND EXTREME INSTABILITY. WITH THE ADDED FOCUS OF ANOUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION...SEVERAL SIG TORS AND/OR AVIOLENT TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. AS SUCH...UPGRADE TO 15% SIGTORNADO PROBABILITIES APPEAR WARRANTED.ELSEWHERE...NO CHANGES WERE MADE...LEITMAN.. 06/16/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 We just had a 76 knot gust here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 Yea, something went boom, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 16, 2014 Author Share Posted June 16, 2014 Absurd 19z RAOB from Omaha, capping is robust, but that is one incredibly loaded gun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawkers Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 PDS TOR WATCH out for NE NEB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 Cell approaching Madison, NE could get interesting very quicklyAm I reading this right? I'm seeing a 100kt+ couplet on this cell at 5,000 ft.Edit: lasted only one scan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevinbente Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 Watching that cell southeast of Des Moines, Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 Chaser reported 96 mph in Sioux Falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 16, 2014 Author Share Posted June 16, 2014 90/80 tornado probs on that watch... URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDTORNADO WATCH NUMBER 303NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK310 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OFWEST-CENTRAL IOWANORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 310 PM UNTIL1000 PM CDT....THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...SEVERAL TORNADOES AND A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELYSCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTSTO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLESCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLETHE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTEMILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OFAINSWORTH NEBRASKA TO 20 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF TEKAMAHNEBRASKA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THEASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FORTORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCHAREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FORTHREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTSAND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.&&OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 302...DISCUSSION...THE 19Z OMA SOUNDING SAMPLED A VOLATILE ENVIRONMENTWITH 4000 J/KG MLCAPE...60 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...AND 500EFFECTIVE SRH. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTEDTO DEVELOP ALONG HEATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WITH A RISK FOR VERYLARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING TORNADOES...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BESIGNIFICANT.AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAILSURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACEWIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23025....MEAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 Goodness - Andy - some of the strongest TOR probs on a Tornado watch - ever? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarmerRick Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 Funny that Douglas County(Omaha) is not included in the watch, though it is in the watch polygon. Can you say CWS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawkers Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 Things should ramp up in a hurry... SVR warning out for the cell south of Norfolk... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 16, 2014 Author Share Posted June 16, 2014 Stormscapelive reporting multiple towers developing off the dryline in NE south of the developing svr warned cell which is organizing by the second (and moving into an incredible parameter space). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 This setup has quickly escalated to one of the most impressive mesoscale setups I can ever recall. You've got a leftover boundary, 30-40 kt of flow at 850 hPa, CAPE profiles larger than a wooly mammoth, effective SRH of 300-400 m^2/s^2, and a cluster of cells about ready to consolidate and take advantage of that parameter space all by itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 16, 2014 Author Share Posted June 16, 2014 Oh...my....god. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 That is probably one of the best soundings for violent tornado potential that I have ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EricHaley Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 That Norfolk cell is going to drop a tornado any minute now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 16, 2014 Author Share Posted June 16, 2014 Very impressive circulation on the lead edge of the S MN line too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 Stanton, NE is in big time trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 Reported TOG with the Nebraska cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 NE storm is spinning like a top, it really ramped up fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 Strong circulation just SW of Stanton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 Stanton, NE is in big time trouble. Yeah maybe it misses to the NE a bit, its a decent size little town though..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paulie21 Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 Tornado on the Stanton storm per Thundersnow12 out with Victor Gensini. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 16, 2014 Author Share Posted June 16, 2014 Violent motion on that thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 It's got a TDS now. This storm is going to do some absolutely horrendous things if anything substantial ends up in its path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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