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June 5th MCS/Convection Discussion


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Up to 0.98" her with a few more drops to fall, a majority of which fell after in a 90 minute period between 7:30 and 9:00 which is fairly substantial. There was potential to get much more than that but unfortunately the models let us down when they bumped up totals yesterday. It looks like my area came in second place with parts of the LHV seeing almost 2" in spots.

Lol I also got .98" in MD.

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I will say a prayer that you get there.  I know it's absolutely thrilling to watch rain fall.

I really could do without all the trolling, especially coming from a respected met. People need to get over the fact that I enjoy rain. It's not like I prefer it over snow or prefer it over sun. I enjoy all types of weather unlike most people around here.

 

Still stuck at 0.99" but reporting moderate rain again despite poor radar returns.

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you ever have your house damaged in one of those things ?- no fun - keep them away

I was down in South Jersey for 2012 derecheo in a RV surrounded by 100ft oak trees. Not fun.

 

But, as weather enthusiasts most here enjoy severe weather. It's not that we wish for death or destruction.

 

It's sort of like me being a firefighter. We don't wish for anyone's house to burn down, but when it does happen and the adrenaline is pumping and people are going balls to the wall their is a thrill factor.

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Sadly it looks like I finished just shy of my mark.

 

 

Pressure 0 in Visibility 10.0 miles Clouds Mostly Cloudy 700 ft
Mostly Cloudy 1200 ft
Overcast 7000 ft Dew Point 62 °F Humidity 100% Rainfall 0.99 in Snow Depth Not available. UV 3 out of 16 Pollen .40 out of 12 Ozone Good PM2.5 Good Flu Activity Regional SPECI KCDW 051503Z 03004KT 10SM BKN007 BKN012 OVC070 17/16 A2967 RMK AO2
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You want heavy rain then hope for some training tstorms this summer. Those can drop several inches in no time causing plenty of flooding.

Eh, radar is estimating storm totals >10" just northeast of Joplin, MO today with all of the convection. Now that's some heavy rain.

 

My highlight was Irene, although most of that fell overnight. It caused some massive river flooding which was very sad, but the rates were incomparable to anything else I've ever experienced.

 

The biggest events for the past five years for me:

 

1) Irene

2) Sandy

3) March 2010 noreaster'

4) Boxing Day Blizzard

5) Halloween snowstorm

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Eh, radar is estimating storm totals >10" just northeast of Joplin, MO today with all of the convection. Now that's some heavy rain.

 

My highlight was Irene, although most of that fell overnight. It caused some massive river flooding which was very sad, but the rates were incomparable to anything else I've ever experienced.

that whole month was insane.  Even before Irene, we had 6 inches or something like that..so Irene's rains fell on already saturated grounds which made the tree damage all the more severe.  Without the prior rains, I'd bet 1/2 of those trees don't fall.

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that whole month was insane.  Even before Irene, we had 6 inches or something like that..so Irene's rains fell on already saturated grounds which made the tree damage all the more severe.  Without the prior rains, I'd bet 1/2 of those trees don't fall.

I believe that August 2011 was #2 wettest month all time.

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Scary to think of a repeat of last summer. I hate drought! South shore micro climate is showing it's ugly head again.

Select few think im pessimistic but living on the south shore of LI, getting organized convection and/or severe storms no matter what time of year its VERY rare.

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Didn't someplace out on Long Island have baseball sized hail within the past few years?

Yea in nassua county well away from the coast in albertson i believe. Im talking about the south shore of LI where trust me storms just die when they reach that area

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Let's be honest, the Northeast is not the place to live if you like convection. Even in great set-ups, one fly in the ointment can ruin everything. Occasionally we hit the jackpot, but it seems that it'd be safe to bet against widespread strong storms in the Northeast 9 / 10 times, and you'd have a good track record.

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Select few think im pessimistic but living on the south shore of LI, getting organized convection and/or severe storms no matter what time of year its VERY rare.

We oftentimes have mini-droughts in the summer along the coasts here. It wouldn't be rare to dry out for a couple of months.

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depends where you were...for NJ and Philly major bust.  Mild bust up here, still got .75 and a cold/rainy morning as forecast

The biggest bust was the 6/3/14 12z ECMWF which had a large band of 2.00"+ totals. Convection is so hard to forecast and the globals have struggled immensely this year with QPF even in the near term.

 

Take a look at today's 12z GFS, it has nearly constant rain and unsettled weather from hour 87 right through 384. You can count the dry panels on one hand. Doubt it verifies anything close to that.

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