Brian5671 Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 Radar looks meh.. especially for northern locations It does, but hard to go against the Euro and Rgem and now even the GFS is on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 It does, but hard to go against the Euro and Rgem and now even the GFS is on board. Haven't seen the HRRRRR yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 5, 2014 Author Share Posted June 5, 2014 High res models indicate that initial slug will fall apart and activity will intensify behind that and move east overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 High res models indicate that initial slug will fall apart and activity will intensify behind that and move east overnight. That must be what the GFS is seeing, because the radar looks like crap in northern sections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 5, 2014 Author Share Posted June 5, 2014 That must be what the GFS is seeing, because the radar looks like crap in northern sections. Just take a look at the latest 00z NAM. Intensity really picks up after 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 Heavy rain developed over Suffolk Co and it's pouring now in the eastern third of the county. Moderate to heavy rain band in CNJ heading into the NYC metro area in the next hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 Lol what a joke, it split to my north and south and I barely had any rain. We could've used the rain for the grasses and such but oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shades Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 Looks like we clear out for sunshine this afternoon... Rain events for the most part have underperformed this Spring, in regards to model output and support. Something to consider especially now that we are heading into convective season where precip is generally more localized. Interpreting 1"+ QPF is usually not a region wide event during the warmer season, that is outside of tropical connections or deep Gulf/Atlantic inflow. This system hardly had that going for it to support what was modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 This certainly underperformed in my area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 0.15 here... don't think we get that much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 I am not sold on the entire metro seeing rainfall over 1 inch on this - as that wxbell map ( copyrighted ?) shows the heavier rain is concentrated across parts of northern NJ well down here just west of SI we haven't seen much at all - anyone going to get over an inch ? The radar is not impressive at all http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0 Newark NJ has seen close to 1/2 inch qpf http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KEWR/2014/6/5/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA this mainly non - event should be outa here by noon and some clearing should take place sometime this afternoon especially the further west you are http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/1km/index.php?type=LongIsland-vis-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 El Busto. System is much weaker than forecast. Maybe .25-.50 tops here when all is said and done in a few hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 Much further south and weaker wave than what the Euro showed, the last few days. Result is less dynamics and instability for heavy convection: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 What a boring event. Not a lot of rain . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 5, 2014 Author Share Posted June 5, 2014 Heavy rain thunder and lightning here currently. But under performed overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 5, 2014 Author Share Posted June 5, 2014 Under quarter mile visibility on 287 in Oakland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 Heavy rain thunder and lightning here currently. But under performed overall. Just another "pedestrian event" huh ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 that's what you get for ripping and reading the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 5, 2014 Author Share Posted June 5, 2014 that's what you get for ripping and reading the nam What about the 12z ECMWF and then the 18z GFS jumped on board too. Really all models were in fairly good agreement going into last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 5, 2014 Author Share Posted June 5, 2014 Just another "pedestrian event" huh ? It's abosulutely pouring here. Far from pedestrian. Picked up 0.70" so far at home and 0.74" at work in Ramsey with a little more to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 Bust! Should be cutting grass by noon...what a turd event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 What about the 12z ECMWF and then the 18z GFS jumped on board too. Really all models were in fairly good agreement going into last night. like I was saying yesterday the reports from Ohio in the afternoon were not impressive at all this was an indication to me that this was not going to be anything spectacular here - the models have fooled us before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 0.42" should make it to about .50" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 It's abosulutely pouring here. Far from pedestrian. Picked up 0.70" so far at home and 0.74" at work in Ramsey with a little more to come. and as I mentioned yesterday there was going to be a wide range of totals - but for most of the area it has been a "pedestrian event" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 Not much you can do. Fail for model guidance as a whole. They jumped back onto the wet solutions yesterday afternoon, not much you can do when most of them bust within 12 hours of the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 Bust down here, I doubt we had anything more than some showers. JFK has only 0.20" for the whole "event" so far, maybe we add a little more and that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 5, 2014 Author Share Posted June 5, 2014 Up to 0.84" at work in Ramsey and 0.85" at home in Pompton Plains. Love Weather Underground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 5, 2014 Author Share Posted June 5, 2014 Up to 0.89" at home, hoping to break the 1" mark before it ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 .24" with backend about to pull through. Also, FWIW, 1" is still fairly pedestrian... we don't live in Vegas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 5, 2014 Author Share Posted June 5, 2014 .24" with backend about to pull through. Also, FWIW, 1" is still fairly pedestrian... we don't live in Vegas. Up to 0.98" her with a few more drops to fall, a majority of which fell after in a 90 minute period between 7:30 and 9:00 which is fairly substantial. There was potential to get much more than that but unfortunately the models let us down when they bumped up totals yesterday. It looks like my area came in second place with parts of the LHV seeing almost 2" in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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