PB GFI Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 where do you see 1.50 ? I see an x with 1.30 near NYC and that area is really tiny - like I said earlier the rainfall amounts will vary across the region IMO and the general totals from NJ through LI and points north and east will be like their map shows .50 to 1.00 - 1.30 will be the exception for a small area and there is no guarantee that area will be exactly where they are showing it now (HPC bullseye 1.25 - 1.50 NYC AREA) . That would be the little bright blue circle right around the city into lower Westchester county . THAT X 1.36 would fall in that range of 1- 1.50 would it not ? Convection is never wide spread . But 1- 1.50 in spots are possible . The Euro and HPC think so . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 (HPC bullseye 1.25 - 1.50 NYC AREA) . That would be the little bright blue circle right around the city into lower Westchester county . THAT X 1.36 would fall in that range of 1- 1.50 would it not ? Convection is never wide spread . But 1- 1.50 in spots are possible . The Euro and HPC think so . Not that far off from HPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 if spinups happen they will ride the warm front. gotta get it to cross at least some part of the metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 If the warm front stays south of us excpect stratiform rain or some elevated convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 4, 2014 Author Share Posted June 4, 2014 If the warm front stays south of us excpect stratiform rain or some elevated convection. The 12z ECMWF basically has the warm front riding right along I-78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 The 12z ECMWF basically has the warm front riding right along I-78. It's a close call but I think we stay on the wrong side of the front (if you want to see severe weather). We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 The timing on this one will be the disruptive part-if it's raining heavily b/w 5-7am, rush hour will be a mess. Euro bullseyes SW CT with 1.5-2 inches of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 UPTON GOING WITH .75 -1.00 WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS - no major flooding no major concerns http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fxus61.KOKX.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 4, 2014 Author Share Posted June 4, 2014 It's a close call but I think we stay on the wrong side of the front (if you want to see severe weather). We will see. I'll take the heavy stratiform convection over 15 minutes of heavy rain and brief wind. The tornado chances will likely be confined to the Delmarva is my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 4, 2014 Author Share Posted June 4, 2014 UPTON GOING WITH .75 -1.00 WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS - no major flooding no major concerns http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fxus61.KOKX.html Guess they are tossing the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 4, 2014 Author Share Posted June 4, 2014 On a side note, thank God Pittsburg switched off clean air mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 4, 2014 Author Share Posted June 4, 2014 18z NAM bullseye's the area. Almost doubled previous totals from 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 356 MT HOLLY .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...THE CORE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PASSING OVER OUR FORECASTAREA BETWEEN 600 AM AND 800 AM ON THURSDAY AND IT SHOULD BEGINMOVING AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST IN THE 800 AM TO 1000 AM TIME FRAME.IT APPEARS AS THOUGH WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A WIDE SWATH OF ONEINCH PLUS RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. TOTALSSHOULD BE A BIT MORE VARIABLE ACROSS THE SOUTH DUE TO THE EMBEDDEDTHUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WE ANTICIPATE AMOUNTS TO BE AROUND A HALFINCH IN THE SOUTH WITH AREAS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WHERE THE HEAVIERDOWNPOURS OCCUR.MOST OF OUR RIVERS, CREEKS AND STREAMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THEEXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE HIGH RAINFALLRATES THAT SHOULD OCCUR OVER A BRIEF TIME PERIOD WE ARE EXPECTINGSOME ROADWAY FLOODING AND SOME FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE COAST AROUND OCEANCOUNTY, NEW JERSEY DURING THE MID MORNING ON THURSDAY AND IT SHOULDREACH THE CAPE COD VICINITY AROUND MID AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW PULLSAWAY FROM OUR REGION, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLYAFTERNOON WITH LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS EXPECTED. A LITTLE MORE BULLISH THAN UPTON . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 4, 2014 Author Share Posted June 4, 2014 Nobody is calling for widespread flooding here, but man, if we end up getting just a bit more than what the models are currently showing things could be dicey, especially in areas that are very susceptible to poor drainage flash flooding. That Rt. 3/21 junction should be fun tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Nobody is calling for widespread flooding here, but man, if we end up getting just a bit more than what the models are currently showing things could be dicey, especially in areas that are very susceptible to poor drainage flash flooding. That Rt. 3/21 junction should be fun tomorrow morning. I don't think the convection here is widespread but like winter time banding it's hard to tell 12 hours out if the strip is into brick NJ or Brooklyn NY I think a lot of the area sees .75 plus. And there should b a small pocket of 1.5 plus and mayb in there if you get that some roadway flooding could b possible IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 4, 2014 Author Share Posted June 4, 2014 I don't think the convection here is widespread but like winter time banding it's hard to tell 12 hours out if the strip is into brick NJ or Brooklyn NY I think a lot of the area sees .75 plus. And there should b a small pocket of 1.5 plus and mayb in there if you get that some roadway flooding could b possible IMO 18z 4k NAM keeps the deluge north of the city. 3"+ for Northern Westchester County and 0.75"+ in the Bronx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Im going for .5 to .75 tops for where i am with maybe some thunder. Heaviest rainfall looks north of me for LHV and SWCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 4, 2014 Author Share Posted June 4, 2014 Im going for .5 to .75 tops for where i am with maybe some thunder. Heaviest rainfall looks north of me for LHV and SWCT Your undying pessimism is uncanning. Eventually the shoe is going to drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Your undying pessimism is uncanning. Eventually the shoe is going to drop. Ban hammer drop on thee? Like you said a while ago, LI is like florida, its where the storms go to die Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 4, 2014 Author Share Posted June 4, 2014 Ban hammer drop on thee? Like you said a while ago, LI is like florida, its where the storms go to die This is different my friend. Normal thunderstorms don't have 998mb lows with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 This is different my friend. Normal thunderstorms don't have 998mb lows with them. Yea i know just yanking your chain yanks lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Is uncanning like, opening the spaghetti-os? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Is uncanning like, opening the spaghetti-os?Lol. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 time to start watching the HRRR 15 hr. accum precip 18z http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/displayMapLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?keys=hrrr_jet:&runtime=2014060418&plot_type=totp_sfc&fcst=15&time_inc=60&num_times=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=full&adtfn=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Just a heads up for those who are expecting a lot of rain. Almost all models had my area in a solid 1-2" of rain, so far at DTW we have received .21" and it has been raining for about 8 hours. I would probably lean on the low end of the spectrum with this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 4, 2014 Author Share Posted June 4, 2014 18z GFS Caves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 GFS finally onboard for 1"+ mostly falling in a short period of time tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 4, 2014 Author Share Posted June 4, 2014 GFS finally onboard for 1"+ mostly falling in a short period of time tomorrow morningIs anyone really shocked? The Euro other than a blip here or there has not waiverd for days while the GFS has sung a different tune every subsequent run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Just a heads up for those who are expecting a lot of rain. Almost all models had my area in a solid 1-2" of rain, so far at DTW we have received .21" and it has been raining for about 8 hours. I would probably lean on the low end of the spectrum with this event.Everybody ignoring the models busting on the northern end of this system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 Everybody ignoring the models busting on the northern end of this system? Radar looks meh.. especially for northern locations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.