IsentropicLift Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 It has been spoken about for days. Now that we're inside of 24 hours the models are starting to come into better agreement on where the heaviest rains fall. The NAM is indicating a chance of ~2.00" of rain in less than 6 hours and an isolated chance of 3"+ in under 6 hours. Upton has also indicated a chance of 1" per hour rates if the warm front can track close enough to the region. Although severe chances look to be meager at best given the further south track of the low, flash flooding may become a problem and has the potential to cause widespread problems during tomorrow mornings commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 GFS continues to be quite dry compared to the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 last night's models busted badly near chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 4, 2014 Author Share Posted June 4, 2014 GFS continues to be quite dry compared to the nam I don't know what's wrong with the GFS lately. It has been way too wet lately and now it seems to be way too dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 4, 2014 Author Share Posted June 4, 2014 last night's models busted badly near chicago I'm a bit worried but the surface low is forecasted to pass over southern NJ and then south of Long Island. Hard to believe that we wouldn't get a good soaking with that setup. The 06z RGEM has it down to 999mb by 18z Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 I'm a bit worried but the surface low is forecasted to pass over southern NJ and then south of Long Island. Hard to believe that we wouldn't get a good soaking with that setup. The 06z RGEM has it down to 999mb by 18z Thursday. I am not sold on the entire metro seeing rainfall over 1 inch on this - as that wxbell map ( copyrighted ?) shows the heavier rain is concentrated across parts of northern NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 last night's models busted badly near chicago How bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 4, 2014 Author Share Posted June 4, 2014 I am not sold on the entire metro seeing rainfall over 1 inch on this - as that wxbell map ( copyrighted ?) shows the heavier rain is concentrated across parts of northern NJ The stuff currently crossing into northern Ohio is what most models have rolling through. We should know by evening what to expect. The NAM has the convection strengthening right as the surface low exists the coast. The Canadian has also been all over this. The globals haven't exactly been stellar with regards to convection this Spring. Going to be interesting to start watching the HRRR this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 12Z GFS continues to lower precip totals for tomorrow - I think someone will see heavier precip then the GFS is advertising BUT I think some areas will see much less similar to yesterday when some folks saw 3 drops and others close to an inch http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 4, 2014 Author Share Posted June 4, 2014 12Z GFS continues to lower precip totals for tomorrow - I think someone will see heavier precip then the GFS is advertising BUT I think some areas will see much less similar to yesterday when some folks saw 3 drops and others close to an inch http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr The fact that the models still seem to be varying greatly, even from run to run definitely raises an eyebrow, but look at the current radar over the Ohio Valley. That's a fairly substantial rain shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 4, 2014 Author Share Posted June 4, 2014 Cloud tops are starting to cool again and expand on the northern side of the complex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 4, 2014 Author Share Posted June 4, 2014 Virga now almost to Binghamton. Going to go out on a limb and say that someone sees rain before midnight. 15z HRRR certainly thinks so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 You know the weather is dull when a half an inch of rain is being talked about like it matters. Then again the only interesting weather this time of year is convection or the occasional tropical threat, and I'll throw in a good heat wave. We are going 0 for 3 through mid month most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 The fact that the models still seem to be varying greatly, even from run to run definitely raises an eyebrow, but look at the current radar over the Ohio Valley. That's a fairly substantial rain shield. Look at the reporting stations in Ohio - not very impressive http://kamala.cod.edu/oh/latest.asus41.CLE.KCLE.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 4, 2014 Author Share Posted June 4, 2014 You know the weather is dull when a half an inch of rain is being talked about like it matters. Then again the only interesting weather this time of year is convection or the occasional tropical threat, and I'll throw in a good heat wave. We are going 0 for 3 through mid month most likely. Only a half inch of rain would be a pretty big bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 4, 2014 Author Share Posted June 4, 2014 Look at the reporting stations in Ohio - not very impressive http://kamala.cod.edu/oh/latest.asus41.CLE.KCLE.html Give it some time. Hopefully the Euro will give us a better idea. Seems to have initialized that area pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Give it some time. Hopefully the Euro will give us a better idea. Seems to have initialized that area pretty well. 12z Euro is going to make you very happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 4, 2014 Author Share Posted June 4, 2014 12z ECMWF nails the area. QPF bullseye right over the greater NYC metro area. Sub 1000mb low just south of NY Harbor as of 12z Thursday. Ticked north of 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 4, 2014 Author Share Posted June 4, 2014 12z Euro is going to make you very happy. Yup, you beat me to it, might even put severe back on the table for southern and eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Im still giving any severe chances late tonight into early tommorow morning an under 10% chance until your south of NYC regardless of what the ECMWF is showing. In the end this will just be a nice overnight rainfall, unless some substantial changes happen CNJ on southward are in the severe and we'll just be getting plain rain with embedded thunder IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 You know the weather is dull when a half an inch of rain is being talked about like it matters. Then again the only interesting weather this time of year is convection or the occasional tropical threat, and I'll throw in a good heat wave. We are going 0 for 3 through mid month most likely. After winter and up to november we go into a convective graveyard, save for some rogue severe storms away from the coastal areas. During late spring, summer and early autumn. Severe weather is a true rarity east of NYC on the south shore of LI, city limits can do pretty good but more often than not heat waves take precendence over storms during the summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 4, 2014 Author Share Posted June 4, 2014 The Euro is showing a surge of PWAT's to 2" passing over the area tomorrow morning. A few hundred J/KG of SBCAPE All recipes for very heavy rainfall to go along with a sub 1000mb low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 I think WPC has the right idea here - just a general .50 - 1.00 qpf across the area - no big deal - very little flooding if any once you take the convection out of the equation chances for flooding rains decreases in this situation http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 I agree that it should be a widespread .5 to an inch of rain. Obviously any convection would produce much more than that locally but that's a crapshoot at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 4, 2014 Author Share Posted June 4, 2014 I think WPC has the right idea here - just a general .50 - 1.00 qpf across the area - no big deal - very little flooding if any once you take the convection out of the equation chances for flooding rains decreases in this situation http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif Do you see the bullseye of ~1.50" totals near NYC? Also you need to take into account duration which looks to be around 6-8 hours. PWAT's close to 2" and a sub 1000mb surface low tracking just south of NYC. Recipe for convection and heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 I think WPC has the right idea here - just a general .50 - 1.00 qpf across the area - no big deal - very little flooding if any once you take the convection out of the equation chances for flooding rains decreases in this situation http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif HPC bullseye 1.25 - 1.50 NYC AREA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 4, 2014 Author Share Posted June 4, 2014 HPC bullseye 1.25 - 1.50 NYC AREA Loving how the precip is intensifying near Erie. Just south of there is where the Euro focuses on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 HPC bullseye 1.25 - 1.50 NYC AREA where do you see 1.50 ? I see an x with 1.30 near NYC and that area is really tiny - like I said earlier the rainfall amounts will vary across the region IMO and the general totals from NJ through LI and points north and east will be like their map shows .50 to 1.00 - 1.30 will be the exception for a small area and there is no guarantee that area will be exactly where they are showing it now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 4, 2014 Author Share Posted June 4, 2014 where do you see 1.50 ? I see an x with 1.30 near NYC and that area is really tiny - like I said earlier the rainfall amounts will vary across the region IMO and the general totals from NJ through LI and points north and east will be like their map shows .50 to 1.00 - 1.30 will be the exception for a small area and there is no guarantee that area will be exactly where they are showing it now You're making this out to be a pedestrian event and that's far from the truth. If that ends up happening it will have been a major bust. The Euro is in its deadly range. It's showing >1" panels which it rarely does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 You're making this out to be a pedestrian event and that's far from the truth. If that ends up happening it will have been a major bust. The Euro is in its deadly range. It's showing >1" panels which it rarely does. time will tell if the pedestrians will be just a little inconvenienced tomorrow morn or there will be major headaches - but I suspect those major headaches will be confined to a small area - that area is still in question IMO - have to also remember its been quite dry around here the last few weeks the ground will be able to soak up alot of the heavier rain quickly thats why I am saying no flooding except for your normal poor drainage areas i'll let you know if my sump pump goes crazy or not tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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