thewxmann Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 The RAP is doing an absolutely horrible job with surface temps south of the warm front. It's off the mark by up to ten degrees Fahrenheit in some spots. You mean north of the warm front? I don't think a single model correctly predicted the magnitude and strength of the cold pool from the original supercell/complex (which has pretty much eliminated sig. tornado potential across NE by now). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 You mean north of the warm front? I don't think a single model correctly predicted the magnitude and strength of the cold pool from the original supercell/complex (which has pretty much eliminated sig. tornado potential across NE by now). I was looking at the inflow air to the south in southeast Nebraska, but it's doing just as badly to the north with the cold pool too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 3, 2014 Author Share Posted June 3, 2014 New tornado watch with high probs across the board aside from strong tornadoes (which is at 50%). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noxx Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 Something needs to be done about vetting reports. Major issue this year. Thing is storm chasing became quite commercial over the last few years, the plains are literally jammed by chasers...remember El Reno last year? Pretty much a Dallas rush hour gridlock, nowadays everyone streaming live chases is a chaser/spotter...way to much amateurs on the roads, people freaking out when a funnel became visible and overestimating things very quickly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 PreTty decent couplet on that silver creek sup: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 Thing is storm chasing became quite commercial over the last few years, the plains are literally jammed by chasers...remember El Reno last year? Pretty much a Dallas rush hour gridlock, nowadays everyone streaming live chases is a chaser/spotter...way to much amateurs on the roads, people freaking out when a funnel became visible and overestimating things very quickly!Think storm probably produced something in a few spots at least.. Have seen a credible report or two. But it's basically a competitive sport to many ... Seem to think its a game to report a maybenado in a rain shaft as a violent wedge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noxx Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 Think storm probably produced something in a few spots at least.. Have seen a credible report or two. But it's basically a competitive sport to many ... Seem to think its a game to report a maybenado in a rain shaft as a violent wedge. Yep, storm chasing has come to a competitive point, im afraid this mindset will lead to more fatalities in the community! Whose the first one to report, the first pics etc....at the end media wins and the NWS have to deal with all the scrappy information! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 The supercell close to Bridgeport NE has produced softball size hail, and has a great deal of rotation above the ground inside it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 Cell north of Brady looks pretty good and seems to be developing quickly visually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 3, 2014 Author Share Posted June 3, 2014 Cell north of Brady looks pretty good and seems to be developing quickly visually. The cell west of North Platte near Bridgeport looks better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 The cell west of North Platte near Bridgeport looks better.The five dots out there are psyched. Playing mid 60 dews in that area can't ever be a truly bad idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 North Platte has been conservative with TOR's today, might have to go on this one as it enters their area. It could make a path for Oshkosh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 that radar signature near Brainard, NE. is that pure straightline gusts from hell or tornadic? I thought originally tornadic, but the next frame or two it's looking like the gust front you don't want to see. GTG was 200kts a frame or two ago (OAX radar). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 The five dots out there are psyched. Playing mid 60 dews in that area can't ever be a truly bad idea. This is what you and I were talking about on twitter today Would love to see some pics from that cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 4, 2014 Author Share Posted June 4, 2014 that radar signature near Brainard, NE. is that pure straightline gusts from hell or tornadic? I thought originally tornadic, but the next frame or two it's looking like the gust front you don't want to see. GTG was 200kts a frame or two ago (OAX radar). oax_2354z.png A lot of radar attenuation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 The cell near Brady may be linearizing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 This is impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 This is what you and I were talking about on twitter today Would love to see some pics from that cell. Yeah problem is it's maybe decapitating itself by running into drier air. But.. definitely a less stressful chase lol. Plus I still get excited for structure. East Coast problems.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Impressive video as the earlier storm went through Norfolk, NE. Hail and wind really ramps up about a minute in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Yeah problem is it's maybe decapitating itself by running into drier air. But.. definitely a less stressful chase lol. Plus I still get excited for structure. East Coast problems.. Yeah, oh well. I'm sure it still looks pretty since it probably just became more LP with the drying...and I'm sure it looked gorgeous before. I love structure as well and would definitely prefer nearly guaranteeing great structure with a smaller chance of a tornado, rather than going for the tornado bullseye but with a high risk that everything congeals and turns into a mess...especially considering the PW values were so high in E NE, which is a classic indicator of potential HP/rainwrapped supercells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Dangerous-looking storm between Lincoln and Omaha, with some rotation near the towns of Greenwood and Ashland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Yeah, oh well. I'm sure it still looks pretty since it probably just became more LP with the drying...and I'm sure it looked gorgeous before. I love structure as well and would definitely prefer nearly guaranteeing great structure with a smaller chance of a tornado, rather than going for the tornado bullseye but with a high risk that everything congeals and turns into a mess...especially considering the PW values were so high in E NE, which is a classic indicator of potential HP/rainwrapped supercells. Eh, it's doing pretty well seems to be riding the moisture tongue http://imgur.com/2FXlBq3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Eh, it's doing pretty well seems to be riding the moisture tongue http://imgur.com/2FXlBq3 Yeah, it looks good! I found someone's twitter feed who has pics of it: https://twitter.com/RyanHokeWAVE3 Looks like a classic LP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 If that cell near Oconto had about 20 more minutes, She would have produced. The wall cloud formed extremely quick, but unfortunately the outflow from the north was racing south and undercut the storm. Temps dropped like 20 degrees quick! It had another RFD push after it was undercut, and had some nice striated plates, but that outflow was too strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Confirmed TOG north of Lakin KS. Not surprised, that cell has had good rotation for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 It will be interesting to see if that supercell near Garden City, KS can shrug off some of the competition around it and last long enough to tap into the strengthening LL jet over the next few hours. If so, KS may become the primary tornado threat overnight. (and with only a single chaser on it!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Confirmed TOG north of Lakin KS. Not surprised, that cell has had good rotation for a while. Reflectivity pattern tightening up now. Honestly, I'm not too impressed with the radial velocity. Looks more like a broad mesocyclone to me... I'm surprised it's producing anything. Probably a brief / small spin up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Reflectivity pattern tightening up now. Honestly, I'm not too impressed with the radial velocity. Looks more like a broad mesocyclone to me... I'm surprised it's producing anything. Probably a brief / small spin up. Yeah, as I posted the next scan came in broader. It looked better about 45 minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 4, 2014 Author Share Posted June 4, 2014 Strong couplet south of Creston, IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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