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June 3rd-6th Severe Thread


andyhb

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The RAP is doing an absolutely horrible job with surface temps south of the warm front. It's off the mark by up to ten degrees Fahrenheit in some spots.

 

You mean north of the warm front? I don't think a single model correctly predicted the magnitude and strength of the cold pool from the original supercell/complex (which has pretty much eliminated sig. tornado potential across NE by now).

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You mean north of the warm front? I don't think a single model correctly predicted the magnitude and strength of the cold pool from the original supercell/complex (which has pretty much eliminated sig. tornado potential across NE by now).

 

I was looking at the inflow air to the south in southeast Nebraska, but it's doing just as badly to the north with the cold pool too.

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Something needs to be done about vetting reports. Major issue this year.

 

Thing is storm chasing became quite commercial over the last few years, the plains are literally jammed by chasers...remember El Reno last year? Pretty much a Dallas rush hour gridlock, nowadays everyone streaming live chases is a chaser/spotter...way to much amateurs on the roads, people freaking out when a funnel became visible and overestimating things very quickly!

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Thing is storm chasing became quite commercial over the last few years, the plains are literally jammed by chasers...remember El Reno last year? Pretty much a Dallas rush hour gridlock, nowadays everyone streaming live chases is a chaser/spotter...way to much amateurs on the roads, people freaking out when a funnel became visible and overestimating things very quickly!

Think storm probably produced something in a few spots at least.. Have seen a credible report or two. But it's basically a competitive sport to many ... Seem to think its a game to report a maybenado in a rain shaft as a violent wedge.
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Think storm probably produced something in a few spots at least.. Have seen a credible report or two. But it's basically a competitive sport to many ... Seem to think its a game to report a maybenado in a rain shaft as a violent wedge.

 

Yep, storm chasing has come to a competitive point, im afraid this mindset will lead to more fatalities in the community! Whose the first one to report, the first pics etc....at the end media wins and the NWS have to deal with all the scrappy information!

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The cell west of North Platte near Bridgeport looks better.

The five dots out there are psyched. Playing mid 60 dews in that area can't ever be a truly bad idea.
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that radar signature near Brainard, NE. is that pure straightline gusts from hell or tornadic? I thought originally tornadic, but the next frame or two it's looking like the gust front you don't want to see. GTG was 200kts a frame or two ago (OAX radar).

 

post-2758-0-70404800-1401840069_thumb.pn

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that radar signature near Brainard, NE. is that pure straightline gusts from hell or tornadic? I thought originally tornadic, but the next frame or two it's looking like the gust front you don't want to see. GTG was 200kts a frame or two ago (OAX radar).

 

attachicon.gifoax_2354z.png

 

A lot of radar attenuation.

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This is what you and I were talking about on twitter today ;)

 

Would love to see some pics from that cell. 

Yeah problem is it's maybe decapitating itself by running into drier air. But.. definitely a less stressful chase lol. Plus I still get excited for structure. East Coast problems..

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Yeah problem is it's maybe decapitating itself by running into drier air. But.. definitely a less stressful chase lol. Plus I still get excited for structure. East Coast problems..

 

Yeah, oh well. I'm sure it still looks pretty since it probably just became more LP with the drying...and I'm sure it looked gorgeous before. I love structure as well and would definitely prefer nearly guaranteeing great structure with a smaller chance of a tornado, rather than going for the tornado bullseye but with a high risk that everything congeals and turns into a mess...especially considering the PW values were so high in E NE, which is a classic indicator of potential HP/rainwrapped supercells. 

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Yeah, oh well. I'm sure it still looks pretty since it probably just became more LP with the drying...and I'm sure it looked gorgeous before. I love structure as well and would definitely prefer nearly guaranteeing great structure with a smaller chance of a tornado, rather than going for the tornado bullseye but with a high risk that everything congeals and turns into a mess...especially considering the PW values were so high in E NE, which is a classic indicator of potential HP/rainwrapped supercells. 

Eh, it's doing pretty well seems to be riding the moisture tongue http://imgur.com/2FXlBq3

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If that cell near Oconto had about 20 more minutes, She would have produced. The wall cloud formed extremely quick, but unfortunately the outflow from the north was racing south and undercut the storm. Temps dropped like 20 degrees quick! It had another RFD push after it was undercut, and had some nice striated plates, but that outflow was too strong.

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It will be interesting to see if that supercell near Garden City, KS can shrug off some of the competition around it and last long enough to tap into the strengthening LL jet over the next few hours.  If so, KS may become the primary tornado threat overnight. (and with only a single chaser on it!)

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Confirmed TOG north of Lakin KS. Not surprised, that cell has had good rotation for a while.

 

Reflectivity pattern tightening up now.  Honestly, I'm not too impressed with the radial velocity.  Looks more like a broad mesocyclone to me... I'm surprised it's producing anything.  Probably a brief / small spin up. 

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Reflectivity pattern tightening up now. Honestly, I'm not too impressed with the radial velocity. Looks more like a broad mesocyclone to me... I'm surprised it's producing anything. Probably a brief / small spin up.

Yeah, as I posted the next scan came in broader. It looked better about 45 minutes ago.

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