TheWeatherPimp Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 Another fairly sketchy warning. Not to mention the box seems misplaced for where it's tracking for now. Two different NWS offices. Obviously some disagreement on whether the TOR warning should have been issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 I bet many NWSFO's are just itching to issue TOR warnings after such a quiet season North Platte just issued a severe on it further east and much of the hook is in their warning. Gotta love CWA border issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 91 mph gust south of Blair, NE http://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KNEBLAIR6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 Storm near Seneca, NE showing some nice rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 3, 2014 Author Share Posted June 3, 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0799NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0437 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2014AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...SRN IA...NRN MOCONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELYVALID 032137Z - 032300ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENTSUMMARY...SIGNIFICANT TORNADO AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT IS INCREASINGACROSS PARTS OF FAR ERN NEB INTO SW IA/NRN MO NEAR THE WARM FRONT.THIS THREAT WILL SHIFT E/SE INTO SE IA/NE MO LATER THIS EVENING. ANEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...PRIOR TOTHAT...A LOCAL EXTENSION TO THE EAST FOR TORNADO WATCH 207 ISLIKELY.DISCUSSION...A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TORNADOES AND EXTREMEWINDS IS EVOLVING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-MO VALLEY IN THE VICINITYOF THE WARM FRONT. THIS FRONT EXTENDS E/SE ACROSS CENTRAL NEB INTOSW IA AND N-CENTRAL MO. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S ANDSTRONG SFC HEATING HAVE RESULTED IN SBCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 4500J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR. SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED ON/NEAR THE WARMFRONT NEAR THE MO/IA BORDER AND WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FORSTRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. FURTHER UPSTREAM...A BOWINGSEGMENT NEAR OMAHA SHOULD THRIVE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT AND CONTINUE ONA SEWD TRAJECTORY ALONG THE WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT.SIGNIFICANT WINDS IN EXCESS OF 65KT WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLEWITH THIS BOWING SEGMENT...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL.AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES THIS EVENING...CONDITIONS WILL BECOMEMORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT AS LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHSBECOME MAXIMIZED IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. ANY SUPERCELLSTHAT CAN REMAIN SEMI-DISCRETE WILL POSE A STRONG/SIGNIFICANT TORNADOTHREAT. EVENTUALLY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE INTO AFORWARD PROPAGATING BOWING QLCS ACROSS SE IA/NE MO WITH THEPOTENTIAL FOR A WIDE SWATH OF EXTREME/DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE MCDAREA.TORNADO WATCH 207 HAS BEEN EXTENDED EWD FOR THE TIME BEING ACROSSPARTS OF SRN IA/NRN MO. A NEW WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED IN THENEXT HOUR OR TWO...LEITMAN/HART.. 06/03/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 Supercell composite up to 50 and effective sig tor up to 12 ne of Grand Island at present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ge0 Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 http://www.ketv.com/weather/severe-weather-coverage-from-ketv/20690156 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 http://www.ketv.com/weather/severe-weather-coverage-from-ketv/20690156 Holy hell that's insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 Omaha ASOS reporting 72 mph. Likely also with Hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 apparently there is a confirmed tornado between Ericson and Ord, NE * AT 442 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ERICSON...OR 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF ORD...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND BASEBALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. THIS TORNADO MAY BE OBSCURED BY RAIN. DO NOT GO OUTSIDE TO LOOK FOR THE TORNADO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 Omaha ASOS reporting 72 mph. Likely also with Hail. You could see the hail piling up in the live video just linked in Council Bluffs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 Omaha ASOS reporting 72 mph. Likely also with Hail. With at least 1" hail KOMA 032146Z 33045G57KT 1/2SM R14R/0300VP6000FT +TSRAGR FEW035 SCT050CB OVC095 15/14 A2985 RMK AO2 PK WND 34063/2140 RAB36GRB45 TSB16 CONS LTGICCG TS OHD-N MOV SE GR 1 P0000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 I was just a few miles west of the western edge of the Tornado Warning went it was first issued. Went east into Burwell and saw a bunch of scud and a relatively low cloud base, but that was it. Not very conclusive on radar either, but apparently it's been "confirmed." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 KOMA 032152Z 33040G50KT 1/4SM R14R/0700V1800FT +TSRAGR FEW035 OVC050CB 16/15 A2979 RMK AO2 PK WND 34063/2140 RAB36GRB45 TSB16 SLP086 CONS LTGICCG TS OHD-N MOV SE GR 1 P0115 T01560150KOMA 032146Z 33045G57KT 1/2SM R14R/0300VP6000FT +TSRAGR FEW035 SCT050CB OVC095 15/14 A2985 RMK AO2 PK WND 34063/2140 RAB36GRB45 TSB16 CONS LTGICCG TS OHD-N MOV SE GR 1 P0000 1.15" of rain in 6 minutes, pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 Looks like winds of more than 80 mph are possible near the town of Treynor in Iowa, as well as large hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 I was just a few miles west of the western edge of the Tornado Warning went it was first issued. Went east into Burwell and saw a bunch of scud and a relatively low cloud base, but that was it. Not very conclusive on radar either, but apparently it's been "confirmed." Watching these guys "Twisted Vortex Chasers" on TVN and they were on the CB radio looking at the hail shaft, screaming rain wrapped tornado. I really hope this isn't the confirmed spotter report because it most certainly wasn't a tornado. I watched them earlier get excited to be out of heavy rain and then they were wondering why hail was now falling. Pretty comical and a guide on how not to chase imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 3, 2014 Author Share Posted June 3, 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0800NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0454 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2014AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NEBCONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 207...209...VALID 032154Z - 032330ZTHE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 207...209...CONTINUES.SUMMARY...ONGOING TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH A CONTINUEDTHREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 65 KT...ANDTORNADOES. A FEW TORNADOES COULD BE STRONG...PARTICULARLY ACROSSS-CNTRL NEB.DISCUSSION...MESOANALYSIS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REVEALS ANENVIRONMENT VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS OVER CNTRL NEB. KLNX RADARIMAGERY SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING S OF THE ONGOINGACTIVITY IN HOOKER AND THOMAS COUNTIES...LIMITING THE TORNADO THREATWITH THOSE STORMS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.FARTHER E /CNTRL NEB/...SUPERCELL NEAR ODX CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONGLOW-LEVEL ROTATION AND WDSS-II MESH NEAR 3 INCHES. THIS SUPERCELL ISMOVING INTO A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY DEEP LAYERSHEAR OF 60 KT...20 KT BACKED SURFACE WINDS...0-3 KM SRH OVER 600M2/S2...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7DEG C PER KM. EFFECTIVE-LAYER STP IS 12. ALL OF THESE FACTORSINDICATE AN ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING A STRONG TORNADO. ITAPPEARS THE ONGOING SUPERCELL WILL HAVE A HIGH PROBABILITY OFPRODUCING A STRONG TORNADO AS LONG AS THE IT CAN REMAINSEMI-DISCRETE AND AVOID NEGATIVE STORM INTERACTIONS.ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT S OF THE ONGOING STORMS /SUCH AS THERECENT UPDRAFT IN CUSTER COUNTY/ IN THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WOULDLIKELY BE SUPERCELLULAR AS LONG AS IT CAN REMAIN DISCRETE...MOSIER.. 06/03/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCS_hunter Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 I was just a few miles west of the western edge of the Tornado Warning went it was first issued. Went east into Burwell and saw a bunch of scud and a relatively low cloud base, but that was it. Not very conclusive on radar either, but apparently it's been "confirmed." We all know how reliable that has been the last few weeks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 The Treynor storm is now warned for a tornado, and will move between Oakland and Carson IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 Watching these guys "Twisted Vortex Chasers" on TVN and they were on the CB radio looking at the hail shaft, screaming rain wrapped tornado. I really hope this isn't the confirmed spotter report because it most certainly wasn't a tornado. I watched them earlier get excited to be out of heavy rain and then they were wondering why hail was now falling. Pretty comical and a guide on how not to chase imo. Lol I was watching the same thing and thinking it must have been them, even though we all saw that there was definitely no tornado even by their account. But then I wasn't sure if they posted here or something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 KOMA 032152Z 33040G50KT 1/4SM R14R/0700V1800FT +TSRAGR FEW035 OVC050CB 16/15 A2979 RMK AO2 PK WND 34063/2140 RAB36GRB45 TSB16 SLP086 CONS LTGICCG TS OHD-N MOV SE GR 1 P0115 T01560150 KOMA 032146Z 33045G57KT 1/2SM R14R/0300VP6000FT +TSRAGR FEW035 SCT050CB OVC095 15/14 A2985 RMK AO2 PK WND 34063/2140 RAB36GRB45 TSB16 CONS LTGICCG TS OHD-N MOV SE GR 1 P0000 1.15" of rain in 6 minutes, pretty impressive. KOMA 032200Z 33012G22KT 1SM R14R/1400VP6000FT +TSRA FEW003 BKN017 OVC043CB 17/16 A2975 RMK AO2 GRE2158GSB2158E00 FRQ LTGICCG TS OHD-SE MOV SE P0109 T01670161 Add on another 1.09, so 2.24" in 14 minutes, there is going to be a big time flooding issue as it looks like the storms to the west are going to ride the warm front right over the same areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 My guess would be that the stronger couplet is near Macedonia, but the bulletin says it's near Oakland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 Another situation of a velocity couplet crossing a CWA boundary today, with strong rotation near Macedonia IA. That storm pretty much has it all. Likely some very strong wind speeds on the leading edge, monster hail imbedded in there, and strong rotation in the middle... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 Ummm... from Daniel Shaws web cam. Might just be a wreck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCS_hunter Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 I'm liking that cell south of North Platte Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 I'm liking the cell on Torrington, WY for photography potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 I don't like how that cell has evolved from how it was in the Omaha-Council Bluffs area to where it is now in northern Montgomery/southern Cass Counties. for a time it also has a creepy S-signature there in the reflectivity. I hope anyone trying to chase that storm is very careful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 3, 2014 Author Share Posted June 3, 2014 Cell along the MO/IA border on the WF is going to town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 The RAP is doing an absolutely horrible job with surface temps south of the warm front. It's off the mark by up to ten degrees Fahrenheit in some spots. Edit: and it's doing pretty poorly to the north of it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 We all know how reliable that has been the last few weeks...Something needs to be done about vetting reports. Major issue this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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