Thundersnow12 Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 Also, it will interesting to see if some of these HRRR runs verify. You get several supercells firing around 22/23z but a few runs have brought a monster via updraft hel track into nw NE west of Cherry co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 Also, it will interesting to see if some of these HRRR runs verify. You get several supercells firing around 22/23z but a few runs have brought a monster via updraft hel track into nw NE west of Cherry co. Seems almost no one playing that area. Think there is a window early at least for it to drop something, plus shots that are somewhat unique comparatively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 What the... SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 1248 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014 NEC089-103-149-031830- /O.CON.KLBF.SV.W.0050.000000T0000Z-140603T1830Z/ HOLT NE-KEYA PAHA NE-ROCK NE- 1248 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN ROCK...SOUTHEASTERN KEYA PAHA AND WESTERN HOLT COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM CDT... AT 1245 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES NORTH OF STUART TO NEWPORT TO 9 MILES SOUTH OF NEWPORT...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH. THESE ARE VERY DANGEROUS STORMS. HAZARD...100 MPH WIND GUSTS AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT. WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 100 MPH WERE REPORTED IN NEWPORT. IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES AND BUSINESSES. EXPECT EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 This scenario somewhat reminds me of the environment around the Little Rock area back in early May was it with the strong tornadoes that formed to their North. Very similar environment synoptically setting up about 30 to 45 miles to the North and Northeast of Grand Island Nebraska. Lots of surface based instability feeding into that area...potential interaction from outflow off the storms in Northern Nebraska which could enhance UVM and convergence even more, of course more than sufficient shear, and the warm front sitting just to the South. That area looks primed and probably would be the area I would target. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 3, 2014 Author Share Posted June 3, 2014 This scenario somewhat reminds me of the environment around the Little Rock area back in early May was it with the strong tornadoes that formed to their North. Very similar environment synoptically setting up about 30 to 45 miles to the North and Northeast of Grand Island Nebraska. Lots of surface based instability feeding into that area...potential interaction from outflow off the storms in Northern Nebraska which could enhance UVM and convergence even more, of course more than sufficient shear, and the warm front sitting just to the South. That area looks primed and probably would be the area I would target. Considering you absolutely nailed that call on 4/27, I hope people in that area who were alive at the time remember 6/3/1980. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 100 mph gusts... That's insane! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 Considering you absolutely nailed that call on 4/27, I hope people in that area who were alive at the time remember 6/3/1980. Just a best guess at this point as these situations can be so fickle to pin down. The warm front I would prefer to have a hair further to the North for my targeted watch area but will see if it can come North a bit more in the next hour or two. I will say that my overall confidence is not as high as the Little Rock area event. I could see these things congealing very quickly but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 This scenario somewhat reminds me of the environment around the Little Rock area back in early May was it with the strong tornadoes that formed to their North. Very similar environment synoptically setting up about 30 to 45 miles to the North and Northeast of Grand Island Nebraska. Lots of surface based instability feeding into that area...potential interaction from outflow off the storms in Northern Nebraska which could enhance UVM and convergence even more, of course more than sufficient shear, and the warm front sitting just to the South. That area looks primed and probably would be the area I would target. You also have the now washed out OFB from storms this morning that is now sitting south of I-80 from HSI to north of BIE to FNB which looks to be crawling a little north now with backed winds and dews in the 70's south of it. Another play to watch further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 3, 2014 Author Share Posted June 3, 2014 I assume LBF/GID/OAX are going to release 18z balloons, LBF currently sitting at 79/68 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 You also have the now washed out OFB from storms this morning that is now sitting south of I-80 from HSI to north of BIE to FNB which looks to be crawling a little north now with backed winds and dews in the 70's south of it. Another play to watch further east. Yes that OFB is definitely retreating back North and we have a very agitated CU field developing in its vicinity on satellite it would appear. I'd think another hour or so of good heating should start to cause things to get very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 Wow impressive! What the... SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 1248 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014 NEC089-103-149-031830- /O.CON.KLBF.SV.W.0050.000000T0000Z-140603T1830Z/ HOLT NE-KEYA PAHA NE-ROCK NE- 1248 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN ROCK...SOUTHEASTERN KEYA PAHA AND WESTERN HOLT COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM CDT... AT 1245 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES NORTH OF STUART TO NEWPORT TO 9 MILES SOUTH OF NEWPORT...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH. THESE ARE VERY DANGEROUS STORMS. HAZARD...100 MPH WIND GUSTS AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT. WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 100 MPH WERE REPORTED IN NEWPORT. IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES AND BUSINESSES. EXPECT EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES. Sent from my SM-G900V Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 TOR watch just issued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 Seems almost no one playing that area. Think there is a window early at least for it to drop something, plus shots that are somewhat unique comparatively. The 12z god model has that western NE area pegged too, well west of the other storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 The 12z god model has that western NE area pegged too, well west of the other storms. Looks like the watch doesn't cover that area.. could just be structure I suppose. In a year without many tornado ops I guess you go for the best one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 Pretty low probabilities.. 40/30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 Pretty low probabilities.. 40/30 Yeah that watch seems like it's for the ongoing stuff and I think we will see another red box with higher probs for further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 Seems almost no one playing that area. Think there is a window early at least for it to drop something, plus shots that are somewhat unique comparatively. I like that area a lot actually...especially for structure since PWs are <1...ideal for LPs. LPs >>> HPs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 Yeah that watch seems like it's for the ongoing stuff and I think we will see another red box with higher probs for further west Yeah maybe that's it though runs thru 0z.. about when things are congealing heavily on HRRR etc and not much coverage west of the box on hi res. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 MCD issued for areas west of current TOR watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 3, 2014 Author Share Posted June 3, 2014 Amazing effective bulk shear in place in that North Platte to Lexington corridor, 75-85 kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 MCD issued for areas west of current TOR watch. Well that didn't take long. Probably where I would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 The low level lapse rates are pretty meh along that OFB in se NE currently. Wondering if that will have a role or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCS_hunter Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 Trying to get my chaser friends to head on over to Lexington. If a storm can fire, everything is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 Well that didn't take long. Probably where I would be. Same, though fortunately it sounds like messier77 might have gone there and he takes great photos. Hopefully he does well out there because I'm very curious with how that pans out. The wording by SPC is very bullish. They definitely favor more discrete supercellular convection out there vs further east...probably why the probabilities aren't as impressive to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 Sitting in St. Paul, NE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 The shear vectors, while not perfectly perpendicular to the front, are definitely more perpendicular to the front further west vs further east...another reason why discrete convection is more likely out there IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 Well that didn't take long. Probably where I would be. Fewer crowds, lesser threat of a chaser-eating derecho, potentially more picturesque storms.... I'd probably be sitting in western NE as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfgmfg Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 18Z soundings are up too http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/14060318_OBS/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCS_hunter Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 18Z soundings are up too http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/14060318_OBS/ North Platte's is terrific Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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