Thunder Road Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 SPC WRF fires off something discrete around (roughly) LBF at 21z, then gives you a good 3 hours of discrete supercell action 22z-01z before congealing into a complex by 02z. Here's max 2-5 km UH at 0z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 Also, today is the 34th anniversary of the "Night of the Twisters" in Grand Island. Surprised no one brought that up yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 Also, today is the 34th anniversary of the "Night of the Twisters" in Grand Island. Surprised no one brought that up yet. And interestingly today's June 3 and severe threat is on a Tuesday--as was 6/3/80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 The updraft helicity tracks from the 06Z 4km NAM (NCEP version) looks unrealistic. The track approaching Omaha is actually a bowing structure in an environment with 2500 j/kg of CAPE and ESRH of 700+ m2/s2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 I'm not digging it either. Yes IF a storm stays discrete enough and IF it rides the warm front, it COULD drop a massive tornado, but would you see it? Probably not, unless you wanted to get nice and chummy with it, only to have it chew you up and spit you out like a chunk of dip. No thank you.Yeah I agree there in general tho the upslope play has been slightly tantalizing here and there.. Perhaps similar issues since it's also near the front plus winds aren't quite as favorable. A day like today highlights a lot about what's gone wrong with the explosion of chasing. People flocking in to potentially have a low chance of seeing something in a crowded and potentially dangerous chase zone. Guess it's partly due to the slow season and who knows till it happens but still. Only half sad not to be out there for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 HRRR pretty much in agreement with the SPC WRF on timing/placement of the first DL supercell, somewhere on the eastern edge of the Sand Hills. As long as the stratus that's there now mixes out, we should be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
messier77 Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 I'm preliminarily looking at the triple point in NW Nebraska today to hopefully (a) get some better structure; and ( avoid the hordes. 12z HRR shows 2500 J/KG SBCAPE and 50-75 kts of 0-6km shear throughout the target area. Also pops off a nice isolated supercell with nearly maxed updraft helicity between 22Z and 1Z. Still slightly concerned about the convective debris/high cloudiness, but hopefully it can burn off. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 3, 2014 Author Share Posted June 3, 2014 A bit OT, but I'm getting pretty tired of reading Brandon Sullivan's complaining all over fb and twitter about locals chasing after the crap he pulled last year on 5/31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 A bit OT, but I'm getting pretty tired of reading Brandon Sullivan's complaining all over fb and twitter about locals chasing after the crap he pulled last year on 5/31. His commentary is super lol as is this. https://twitter.com/NickMcElhose/status/473837091923959808 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 3, 2014 Author Share Posted June 3, 2014 He has absolutely no business criticizing others after his reckless b.s. and then advertising it across the media afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soonertrey Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 He has absolutely no business criticizing others after his reckless b.s. and then advertising it across the media afterwards. Yep, I agree. He's been doing it all year too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 A bit OT, but I'm getting pretty tired of reading Brandon Sullivan's complaining all over fb and twitter about locals chasing after the crap he pulled last year on 5/31. Yeah, that seems a bit hypocritical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btsullivan91 Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 Just becuase I made some mistakes and got hit by a tornado didn't mean I wasn't disgusted at the amount of people out chasing that day or how they were acting.. My incident was on me and my fault alone, but, lately, there have been substantial car accidents on so many chases, or just gross acts of negligence by chasers who, unlike myself, didn't learn the lessons from that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Msalgado Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 Just becuase I made some mistakes and got hit by a tornado didn't mean I wasn't disgusted at the amount of people out chasing that day or how they were acting.. My incident was on me and my fault alone, but, lately, there have been substantial car accidents on so many chases, or just gross acts of negligence by chasers who, unlike myself, didn't learn the lessons from that day. Just my two cents, but maybe you should consider how your message is taken (as evident by the comments above) and reconsider trying to be a messenger. It doesn't matter if you're justified in your message or not if people just tune it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 3, 2014 Author Share Posted June 3, 2014 Anyway, high res modeling appears to be in growing agreement that something initiates within a really explosive environment somewhere in east-central NE later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawkers Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 a bit surprised there isn't a 15% TOR probability further west in central/ north-central NE... The environment there is going to be very conducive for tornadoes, plus that's essentially where initiation will occur, so storms would be discrete most likely... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 I'm preliminarily looking at the triple point in NW Nebraska today to hopefully (a) get some better structure; and ( avoid the hordes. 12z HRR shows 2500 J/KG SBCAPE and 50-75 kts of 0-6km shear throughout the target area. Also pops off a nice isolated supercell with nearly maxed updraft helicity between 22Z and 1Z. Still slightly concerned about the convective debris/high cloudiness, but hopefully it can burn off. Thoughts? I like this idea as well. Also, soundings out there are much better for LP beauty...areas further SE could get HP crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 3, 2014 Author Share Posted June 3, 2014 a bit surprised there isn't a 15% TOR probability further west in central/ north-central NE... The environment there is going to be very conducive for tornadoes, plus that's essentially where initiation will occur, so storms would be discrete most likely... There's still time for them to add in one (much like what happened on Mother's Day), although questions about storm coverage and duration of supercell storm mode remain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawkers Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 There's still time for them to add in one (much like what happened on Mother's Day), although questions about storm coverage and duration of supercell storm mode remain. yes, but as long as there is a heightened threat for a few hours, that's all that matters. The amount of conservativeness exhibited this year by them is amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 Currently in Fremont, NE...headed west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 Upper level shear is looking pretty good. 60kts is the lower bound for LP sups. This will be a key parameter to watch as the day progresses - at least as far as supercell type is concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawkers Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 13Z HRRR seemed more on board with a higher tornado threat, and didn't even merge the supercells... Keeps three discrete supercells going from west-central NE all the way to AOA oax. No derecho of any type is really shown by it, except for a bow-echo that develops across central Iowa at the the very end of the run, and surges it southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 heading to york-grand island-columbus area, where i can shoot north or south if needed. Should be there in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 3, 2014 Author Share Posted June 3, 2014 Upgrade to high risk for winds mentioned in latest D1... THUS...WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST INDERECHO EVOLUTION ACROSS NEB/IA/MO AREA THROUGH THE LATE EVENING.EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...LARGEHAIL...AND A COUPLE OF POTENTIALLY STRONG TORNADOES IN THESE AREAS.IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THIS WIDESPREAD SEVERE WINDSCENARIO...A HIGH RISK AREA MAY BE ADDED IN THE AFTERNOON SWODY1UPDATE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 Looks like dews in spots are higher than progged. Lots of low 70 dews across north central KS into southern NE. Those were not there on last nights runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 If the derecho is going to pan out , hopefully it hits me before sunset to get some decent pictures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 FWIW, eff sig tor parameter on SPC mesoanalysis currently peaks at 11 near Lexington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 3, 2014 Author Share Posted June 3, 2014 FWIW, eff sig tor parameter on SPC mesoanalysis currently peaks at 11 near Lexington. 0-3 km EHI maxing out at 13 in that area as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 FWIW, eff sig tor parameter on SPC mesoanalysis currently peaks at 11 near Lexington. And a sup comp of 36 already and it's not even 18z. Doing a hand analyzed sfc map now. MDIV bullseys sitting in the LBF-MCK-IML triangle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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