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June 3rd-6th Severe Thread


andyhb

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Been chasing since 6/1.  Everything has been outflow dominant, but we have been making the best of the chasecation without much cooperation from the atmosphere.

 

6/1/2014 - Southwest Kansas

 

1017507_665078894626_8381080827859134523

 

10363577_665083665066_193735527578528196

'

6/3/2014 - Central Nebraska

 

10257030_665481158486_644241056403248380

 

6/4/2014 - Nebraska Panhandle

 

10384122_665617285686_885447834338411535

 

10300524_665617520216_373045582958771355

 

1509110_665617629996_7807522817122727148

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Absolutely amazing bow echo in western KS now with legit supercells in the WAA wing.

Been following it closely. My brother is in NW Arkansas @ an outdoor music festival. Trying to keep him updated.

He picked a hell of a few days to go. Slight risk each day for the area.

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Absolutely amazing bow echo in western KS now with legit supercells in the WAA wing.

Yeah it is/was a monster back there (birth of a derecho?) producing multiple tornadoes:

 

erkj0n.png

 

Been following it closely. My brother is in NW Arkansas @ an outdoor music festival. Trying to keep him updated.

He picked a hell of a few days to go. Slight risk each day for the area.

It kept building up through the overnight and is racing further to the ESE...is this a derecho in action we're seeing here?

 

11vsd94.png

 

Speeding up and holding up. The SVR warnings got more aggressive in wording last hour to bump max gusts to 80 mph from 70 mph. Amazing for early morning!

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Yeah it is/was a monster back there (birth of a derecho?) producing multiple tornadoes:

 

erkj0n.png

 

It kept building up through the overnight and is racing further to the ESE...is this a derecho in action we're seeing here?

 

11vsd94.png

 

Speeding up and holding up. The SVR warnings got more aggressive in wording last hour to bump max gusts to 80 mph from 70 mph. Amazing for early morning!

Very likely an incipient derecho.

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23tfukk.gif

 

 

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0833   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0740 AM CDT THU JUN 05 2014   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN KS/NORTHEAST OK TO MUCH OF WESTERN/SOUTHERN   MO AND NORTHERN AR   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 227...228...   VALID 051240Z - 051445Z   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH   227...228...CONTINUES.   SUMMARY...POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE...IN ADDITION TO SOME   SEVERE HAIL...WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH THE MORNING WITH A   MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KS/NORTHEAST OK   INTO MUCH OF WESTERN/SOUTHERN MO AND NORTHERN AR. SEVERE   THUNDERSTORM WATCHES 227/228 CONTINUE UNTIL 15Z/18Z RESPECTIVELY.   CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AN ADDITIONAL WATCH IS LIKELY TO BE NEEDED   ACROSS ADDITIONAL PARTS OF SOUTHERN /AND POSSIBLY WESTERN/ MO AND   NORTHERN AR.    A CATEGORICAL UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK WILL OCCUR WITH THE 13Z   UPDATE.   DISCUSSION...A VERY WELL-ORGANIZED SEVERE MCS/BOW ECHO WILL CONTINUE   TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS/MUCH OF NORTHEAST OK   INTO SOUTHERN MO/NORTHERN AR THIS MORNING. THIS MCS IS ASSOCIATED   WITH A NOTABLE SURFACE PRESSURE FALL/RISE COUPLET WHILE THRIVING IN   A MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT NEAR/NORTH OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS   THE REGION. THE MCS IS ALSO LIKELY BE AIDED BY AN MCV/REAR INFLOW   JET WITH 50+ KT WINDS AS LOW AS 4KM AGL AS PER THE WICHITA WSR-88D   VWP. WARM SECTOR MLCAPE IS AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG ACROSS NORTHEAST   OK/SOUTHWEST MO INTO AR...WHICH WILL BE INCREASINGLY REALIZED AS THE   BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. WITH A RELATIVELY MOISTURE-RICH ENVIRONMENT   ALREADY IN PLACE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F/...EARLY DAY VISIBLE   SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE MCS-PRECEDING AIR MASS WILL INDEED   STEADILY HEAT THROUGH THE MORNING FROM FAR EASTERN OK INTO   AR/SOUTHERN MO.    FARTHER NORTH...AS THE MCS CONTINUES TO UNDERGO AN ASYMMETRIC SQUALL   LINE-TYPE EVOLUTION...THE POTENTIAL FOR NORTH-SIDE COMMA HEAD   VORTICES CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE MAY INCREASE POTENTIALLY AS FAR   NORTH AS ROUGHLY THE I-70 CORRIDOR. A 53 KT GUST WAS RECENTLY   MEASURED AT SALINA KS AS OF AROUND 1210Z. ADDITIONALLY...WAKE LOW   RELATED WINDS TO SEVERE-CALIBER LEVELS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN ACCORDANCE   WITH PRONOUNCED PRESSURE FALLS /8-9MB PER 2HR FALLS/ ACROSS CENTRAL   KS WITH MCS-TRAILING EASTERLY WINDS.   ..GUYER.. 06/05/2014
 

Didn't see it posted. Moderate risk just for this too. Joplin got a 64 mph gust with some limbs down.

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0455 AM TSTM WND GST MCPHERSON AIRPORT 38.35N 97.69W

06/05/2014 E70.00 MPH MCPHERSON KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

LAW ENFORCEMENT ESTIMATING WINDS OF 60 TO 70 MPH.

 

 

 

0455 AM HAIL MCPHERSON 38.37N 97.66W

06/05/2014 M3.00 INCH MCPHERSON KS TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER LOCATED IN THE 1700 BLOCK OF LIMESTONE

REPORTING 3.25 INCH HAIL. TIME IS BASED ON RADAR.

 

 

 

0732 AM NON-TSTM WND GST MCPHERSON 38.37N 97.66W

06/05/2014 M82.00 MPH MCPHERSON KS MESONET

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I kept seeing tornado warnings mentioned on the TV last night. Here's what happened: 6 tornado reports, Bennett, Last Chance, Limon, Hugo, Arriba, and Cheyenne Wells, Colorado

 

edit:

 

image from 0424z, tornado near limon (10:24pm)

 

post-1182-0-59306800-1401993427_thumb.pn

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Here's a comp reflectivity and base velocity image from Springfield (centered on Mountain Home AR, West Plains MO). This shows that 6 storm reports occurred in an area where the radar base velocity topped 65 kts in places.

 

post-1182-0-47403800-1401990143_thumb.pn

 

 

 

 

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HRRR seems to be pointing toward a pretty decent MCS plowing across Oklahoma tonight. Seems to be forecasting at least pockets of very strong winds, especially just west of OKC metro.

 

Something to watch for, anyway.

 

Last few runs are locking onto this solution, at least for now. Finally seeing a few supercells off the Front Range in S CO that may represent the humble beginning of a large complex overnight.

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