June 3rd-6th Severe Thread

[andyhb]

Figured this deserved its own thread considering the potential magnitude of the threat especially on Tuesday and then extending east on Wednesday (although that will be more covered by GL/OV). More impulses look to eject after as well and this is looking like one of the more productive June patterns we've seen in a decent amount of time.

 

18z GFS still has some wicked soundings over a pretty sizable area in NE as early as 18z on Tuesday with what looks to be a rather manageable cap.

[Thunder Road]

GID fairly bullish in their afternoon AFD:

 

 

 

TUE: PLEASE CONT TO FOLLOW SPC SEVERE WX OUTLOOKS AND THE HAZARDOUS
WX OUTLOOK /HWO/ AND THIS PRODUCT FOR WHAT IS LOOKING LIKE A SERIOUS
SEVERE WX THREAT. THIS HAS POTENTIAL TO BE UPGRADED IN LATER SPC
OUTLOOKS.

LLJ-INDUCED STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED COULD
INITIATE STORMS DURING THE MORNING HRS N OF THE WARM FRONT. IT
APPEARS STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THRU THE DAY AS
LLJ INTENSIFIES...PROBABLY FORMING AN MCS. THESE STORMS WILL BE
FORMING AT THE LEADING EDGE OF AN EML. THE STORMS WILL REINFORCE THE
WARM FRONT AND BY AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL MORE DISCRETE TSTMS SHOULD
ERUPT ALONG THE DRYLINE...WARM FRONT AND TRIPLE POINT. WHILE SEVERE
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE MCS...VERY LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES WILL BE THE THREATS WITH THESE AFTERNOON STORMS.

[Thunder Road]

LBF drops the T word too:

 

 

 

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT WITH SOME LOCALES RECEIVING
AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN AS STORMS ORGANIZE AND MOVE EAST. LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH A CHANCE FOR
TORNADOES AS WELL INTO THE EVENING WITH GOOD SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS
TO FORM.

 

as does OAX:

 

 

 

LOW LEVEL JET REALLY
STRENGTHENS INTO TUE EVENING PROVIDING BETTER LOW LEVEL SHEAR.
HIGH POPS AGAIN WARRANTED...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND AFTER 00Z WED
ALONG WITH MODEST SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH HIGHEST TORNADO RISK AREA
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE FRONT SETS UP.

[andyhb]

Pretty decent sounding in Central NE @ 18z Tuesday from the 00z NAM...

 

[David Reimer]

Pretty decent sounding in Central NE @ 18z Tuesday from the 00z NAM...

 

 

Check out the 0Z 4KM NAM at Hour 51 (03Z Wednesday) in northern Kansas. First time I've seen every parameter maxed out including 100 KNOTS at 850 MB in vicinity of an obvious tornadic supercell. 

[andyhb]

D2 moderate and a very large one for Tuesday, all forms of significant severe highlighted.

 

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1250 AM CDT MON JUN 02 2014

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NEB INTO NRN KS...SRN

IA...NRN MO AND WRN IL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF THE CNTRL AND

NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY AREAS...

...SUMMARY...

NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY FROM A PORTION OF THE

CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS. LARGE

HAIL AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND ARE LIKELY...BUT TORNADOES WILL

ALSO BE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES.

...SYNOPSIS...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE CA COAST WILL REACH THE

GREAT BASIN OR CENTRAL ROCKIES BY 12Z TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL

THEN RAPIDLY EJECT EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS DURING THE DAY AND

INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT...DEAMPLIFYING IN THE

PROCESS. A STRONG UPPER JET WITH 60-70 KT AT 500 MB WILL ACCOMPANY

THIS IMPULSE. AT THE SFC A FRONT WILL STALL FROM THE OH VALLEY WWD

INTO NEB WHILE A LEE CYCLONE DEEPENS OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS IN

ASSOCIATION WITH INCREASING WLYS ALOFT AND FORCING ATTENDING THE

EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN SHIFT EWD ALONG

THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. TO THE SOUTH OF

THE SFC LOW A DRYLINE WILL SETUP ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS

TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

...CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY REGIONS...

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENTS TUESDAY WITH A THREAT

FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND.

A FEW STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY TUESDAY WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC

LIFT AND THETA-E ADVECTION NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND ON NOSE OF A

SLY LLJ ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN NEB INTO SD. RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH

UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS WILL RESIDE IN WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF

THE FRONT THAT WILL LIFT NWD INTO NEB AND SRN IA. SOME UNCERTAINTY

EXISTS AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THIS BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE...ESPECIALLY

ACROSS THE MS VALLEY WHERE INFLUENCE OF DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH

MAY LIMIT OR DELAY ITS NWD PROGRESS. MEANWHILE...PLUME OF STEEP

MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE EML WILL ADVECT THROUGH

THE CNTRL PLAINS MOIST WARM SECTOR WITHIN BELT OF STRENGTHENING

WLYS. THESE PROCESSES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG INSTABILITY SOUTH OF

THE FRONT /2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE/ AS THE SFC LAYER WARMS. HEIGHT

FALLS...STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ...AND BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION

SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS TO

DEVELOP ALONG THAT PORTION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE CLOSER TO THE WARM

SECTOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASING TO AOA 50 KT AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL

SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH ANY ACTIVITY

DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND NEAR TRIPLE POINT AND POSSIBLY

FARTHER SOUTH ALONG DRYLINE INTO WRN KS. VERY LARGE HAIL AND

DAMAGING WIND WILL BE LIKELY WITH INITIAL STORMS. ALSO STORM MOTION

VECTORS WOULD SUPPORT STORMS THAT DEVELOP ON WARM FRONT TO MOVE ELY

OR ESELY...LIKELY REMAINING IN PROXIMITY TO THIS BOUNDARY WHERE

INFLUX OF HIGH THETA-E AIR AND 0-2 KM HODOGRAPHS WILL BE

MAXIMIZED...SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR TORNADOES...A FEW OF WHICH COULD

BE STRONG. DURATION OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT WILL

DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY STORMS BEGIN TO CONGEAL AND GROW UPSCALE.

STORMS OVER NEB SHOULD EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS AND FORWARD

PROPAGATE EWD...SUSTAINED BY THE STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ. GIVEN THE

EXPECTED MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND NATURE OF THE VERTICAL WIND

PROFILES...THREAT WILL EXIST FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND WITH BOW

ECHO AND LEWP STRUCTURES AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY FROM

PORTIONS OF NEB INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION.

...CNTRL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS...

OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WY AND MT AND

SPREAD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY

WILL SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL

AND DAMAGING WIND SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS.

..DIAL.. 06/02/2014

[Jayhawkers]

Thankfully it appears that the larger population centers will not have as high as a tornado threat as NC Kansas/ C Nebraska...doesn't appear that they will escape the probable derecho though. Nonetheless the environment these storms will be in is absolutely insane, strong to extreme cape + strong bulk shear + an intense LLJ after 00Z = ??? If any supercells remain at least semi-discrete after 00Z, things are going to be really ugly for somewhere along the WF.

[jcwxguy]

May be too early to call, but i wouldnt be surprised to see parts of that area going to high risk on tomorrows day 1 outlook, especially if storms remain  semi-discrete.

[Jayhawkers]

May be too early to call, but i can see parts of that area going to high risk.

I could see it for damaging winds definitely... High-end tornado threat like SPC, and local WFO's have mentioned will depend on how long storms remain discrete. The Instability/Low-level Shear combo is nuts after 00Z.

[andyhb]

I could see it for damaging winds definitely... High-end tornado threat like SPC, and local WFO's have mentioned will depend on how long storms remain discrete. The Instability/Low-level Shear combo is nuts after 00Z.

 

The instability/shear combo becomes very impressive as early at 18z Tuesday, not just from 00z on.

[Jayhawkers]

The instability/shear combo becomes very impressive as early at 18z Tuesday, not just from 00z on.

agree, but I'm mainly focusing on when the LLJ intensifies to 70-100kts. But yes would definitely agree that the instability/ shear combo is impressive well before then.

[bdgwx]

Here is the updraft helicity from the 00Z 4km NAM. This isn't a typical looking updraft helicity output.

 

Oh, and yeah, the wind shear in this setup is certainly remarkable to say the least.

 

[Thunder Road]

May be too early to call, but i wouldnt be surprised to see parts of that area going to high risk on tomorrows day 1 outlook, especially if storms remain  semi-discrete.

 

The only reason I would think they might not is how they handled 4/27 and 4/28, waiting until the 20z both days to pull the trigger.  That, and perhaps concerns about the extent of storm coverage.

 

My guess is a high-end Mod tonight, 15/45/45 all hatched or something like that.

[bdgwx]

What about a high risk for the MCS that is being modeled? It would not be unprecedented.

 

Anybody else notice the model solutions for 06Z around the IA/MO border?

[Jayhawkers]

Not going to copy/paste since I'm on my phone... But GID went all out with their AFD, describing it pretty much as a historic event in the making. They also really only seemed to be highlighting the tornado risk fwiw, and rightfully so. Even mentioned upgrade to possible high-risk.

[andyhb]

Not going to copy/paste since I'm on my phone... But GID went all out with their AFD, describing it pretty much as a historic event in the making. They also really only seemed to be highlighting the tornado risk fwiw, and rightfully so. Even mentioned upgrade to possible high-risk.

 

They mentioned an upgrade to high, but you are overdoing it a bit with the historic part. They basically just said it could be the biggest of the year so far.

[Jayhawkers]

They mentioned an upgrade to high, but you are overdoing it a bit with the historic part. They basically just said it could be the biggest of the year so far.

historic by June's standards wouldn't be much of a hyperbole basing off of the discussion "the best June setup--as far as cape/shear go--I have seen in a few years."

[andyhb]

historic by June's standards wouldn't be much of a hyperbole basing off of the discussion "the best June setup I have seen in a few years."

 

That's not what they said either, read again.

 

They mentioned the LL shear is the strongest they've seen in a June setup in awhile, that doesn't mean it will be fully utilized. They are right that any supercells going off in the forecast environment will likely explode in a hurry, but we don't need to be throwing around unnecessary hyperbole.

[Jayhawkers]

That's not what they said either, read again.

They mentioned the LL shear is the strongest they've seen in a June setup in awhile, that doesn't mean it will be fully utilized. They are right that any supercells going off in the forecast environment will likely explode in a hurry, but we don't need to be throwing around unnecessary hyperbole.

misread it apparently, too much packed into one paragraph, and morning grogginess I suppose. Nonetheless this setup is pretty volatile for June.

[andyhb]

Regardless, here are the discussions from GID and OAX, both great reads.

 

GID:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
551 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND THE MODERATE RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. THE SEVERE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT
AT LEAST RIGHT NOW APPEARS TO POTENTIALLY BE ONE OF THE MOST
VOLATILE THAT WE MAY SEE THIS YEAR AND IS CERTAINLY RIGHT UP
THERE WITH THE ENVIRONMENT THAT PRODUCED THE LONG TRACK TORNADOES
ON MOTHERS DAY EARLIER THIS YEAR. THIS IS CERTAINLY A DAY THAT
PEOPLE SHOULD REMAIN VERY WEATHER AWARE BY HAVING AT LEAST SOME
SOURCE OF RELIABLE WEATHER INFORMATION AVAILABLE TO THEM. THAT
BEING SAID...WE ARE STILL AROUND 36 HRS AWAY FROM THIS POTENTIAL
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT AND THINGS COULD CHANGE. THERE COULD BE A
CHANGE TOWARDS THE WORSE SUCH AS AN UPGRADE TO A HIGH RISK IF
CONFIDENCE IN THESE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS INCREASES...OR FOR
THE BETTER IF THE UPPER SYSTEM WERE TO COME OUT WEAKER OR MORNING
CONVECTION LIMITED THE AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION. BOTTOM LINE...IS
BE PREPARED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A BIG SEVERE WEATHER DAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY INCLUDING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND EVEN THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG LONG
TRACK TORNADOES. MORE DETAILS ON TUESDAY CAN BE COME FOUND IN THE
TUESDAY SECTION BELOW.

TODAY...LOW CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME FOG HAVE BEEN EXPANDING ACROSS
OUR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ZONES AND ARE TRYING TO PRESS NORTH INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS
AND RECENT HEAVY RAIN IS THE LIKELY CULPRIT OF THESE LOW
CLOUDS/FOG. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
QUICKLY SCATTER OUT WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE. WE THEN EXPECT
A LOT OF SUNSHINE TODAY WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. THE DEWPOINTS WILL BE LOWER
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEBRASKA AND SO IT WILL NOT FEEL AS
HUMID.

TONIGHT...MOST FORECAST MODELS ARE DRY AND WILL THEREFORE CALL
FOR A DRY FORECAST. THE UPPER WAVE THAT WILL KICK OFF OUR ACTIVE
TUESDAY WILL STILL BE WELL TO OUR WEST. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE...BUT WILL ALSO BE FOCUSED TO OUR WEST
OVERNIGHT. WE WILL SEE INCREASING DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS NORTHWARD WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS.

TUESDAY...AS MENTIONED IN THE OPENING PARAGRAPH...THIS APPEARS TO
LIKELY BE ONE OF THE MOST VOLATILE SEVERE WEATHER ENVIRONMENTS OF
THE YEAR. THAT IS A BIG STATEMENT SO LETS LOOK IN DETAIL AT THE
EXPECTED ENVIRONMENT. FORCING...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
EAST OUT OF WYOMING/COLORADO TUESDAY MORNING INTO SOUTH
DAKOTA/NEBRASKA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A 992-996 MB SFC LOW WILL
TRACK EAST ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER THROUGH THE DAY. A
VERY PRONOUNCED WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY BE DRAPED FROM WEST TO EAST
OVER OUR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WITH A DRY LINE RUNNING FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES. SHEAR...THE
00Z GFS AND 06Z NAM ARE BOTH INDICATING 0-6 KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES OF 60 TO 75 KTS...WITH THE NAM EVEN SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL
OF OVER 80 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. LOW LEVEL SHEAR OF 0-1 KM WILL
BE MAXIMIZED ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT BY EARLY
EVENING WITH THE 00Z GFS INDICATING 30-35 KTS...AND THE 06Z NAM
SHOWING 35-40 KTS. THIS IS A LOT OF SHEAR...ESPECIALLY DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...AND THE MOST I HAVE SEEN FOR A JUNE EVENT WITH THIS MUCH
INSTABILITY/CAPE FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IN PERHAPS A FEW YEARS. IF
IT PANS OUT...EXPECT STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO ROTATE RATHER EASILY.
CAPE...MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000 J/KG CAN BE EXPECTED BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN BY 18Z/1PM THUS INDICATING THAT
THIS SEVERE EVENT COULD KICK OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME TIMES
TOO MUCH SHEAR CAN BLOW AN UPDRAFT OVER AND KILL A STORM...BUT
WITH SO MUCH CAPE/INSTABILITY THAT SEEMS UNLIKELY. IT SHOULD BE
HIGHLIGHTED THAT IT IS LIKELY THAT NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN FROM
THIS EVENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE CONVECTION
SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED ALONG THE DRY LINE. OUR POPS MAY EVEN BE A
TOUCH TOO HIGH. HOWEVER...ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM COULD BE
ABSOLUTE MONSTERS. BOTTOM LINE IS BE WEATHER AWARE ON TUESDAY AND
KEEP UP TO DATE ON CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS THE EXPECTED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONS COULD STILL SHIFT SOME THIS FAR OUT.

 

OAX:

STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT WILL EJECT
INTO THE PLAINS AND DAMPEN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. FAST MID LEVEL
FLOW WILL INDUCE STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES...WITH MODELS INDICATING SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN IN
NORTHWEST KANSAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF IT...WARM FRONT OVER
NORTHERN KANSAS SHOULD LIFT INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA
BRINGING SOUPY 70F DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WITH IT. FLOW AT ALL
LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
SOUTHERLY 850 WINDS NEAR 40KT RIDING OVER FRONTAL ZONE. BULK SHEAR
VALUES WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY...TOPPING 70KT...WITH MOST-UNSTABLE
CAPES NORTH OF 3000 J/KG. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG
WARM FRONT WHERE 0-1KM ENERGY-HELICITY INDICES ARE FORECAST IN THE 5
TO 10+ RANGE. ALL THIS POINTS TO A GOOD LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE IN PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN THE AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD QUICKLY EAST ALONG
WARM FRONT AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. ALL MODES
OF SEVERE ARE POSSIBLE...WITH STRONG/LONG-TRACK TORNADOES POSSIBLE
NEAR WARM FRONT. THREAT FOR SEVERE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST OF WESTERN IOWA OVERNIGHT.

[thewxmann]

historic by June's standards wouldn't be much of a hyperbole basing off of the discussion "the best June setup--as far as cape/shear go--I have seen in a few years."

 

That's not saying much -- June has been pretty abysmal for severe the past couple of years. This is the best June setup that we've had in several years.

[Chinook]

21z Tuesday, sounding for Kansas Nebraska border. Wow, is that 80 knots of effective shear?  I see a westerly 70kt at 400mb, and southerly 15 kt at the surface. I don't think I have seen 80 kts of effective shear in June, over any sort of decent CAPE area.  EHI is about 7, CAPE possibly 3400 J/kg, 3km SRH is 300m2/s2.

 

[tornadotony]

21z Tuesday, sounding for Kansas Nebraska border. Wow, is that 80 knots of effective shear?  I see a westerly 70kt at 400mb, and southerly 15 kt at the surface. I don't think I have seen 80 kts of effective shear in June, over any sort of decent CAPE area.  EHI is about 7, CAPE possibly 3400 J/kg, 3km SRH is 300m2/s2.

 

2014_06_03_21z_sounding_n_kansas.jpg

Did you even stop to think about the LCLs though?  I don't care how much CAPE, SRH, EHI, BMI, TMI, or SMH you have.  You're not getting strong/long-tracked tornadoes with LCLs over 1500 m!  Now up near the warm front may be a different story, but it's going to be a tenuous game of maintaining low LCLs and enough near-sfc-based instability to promote tornadogenesis.

[Jayhawkers]

21z Tuesday, sounding for Kansas Nebraska border. Wow, is that 80 knots of effective shear? I see a westerly 70kt at 400mb, and southerly 15 kt at the surface. I don't think I have seen 80 kts of effective shear in June, over any sort of decent CAPE area. EHI is about 7, CAPE possibly 3400 J/kg, 3km SRH is 300m2/s2.

2014_06_03_21z_sounding_n_kansas.jpg

inverted-V sounding... LCL's heights have to be pretty high. Great instability/shear combo is worthless as far as tornadoes go in that area with high LCL's

[OKpowdah]

Did you even stop to think about the LCLs though?  I don't care how much CAPE, SRH, EHI, BMI, TMI, or SMH you have.  You're not getting strong/long-tracked tornadoes with LCLs over 1500 m!  Now up near the warm front may be a different story, but it's going to be a tenuous game of maintaining low LCLs and enough near-sfc-based instability to promote tornadogenesis.

 

think the PBL will actually mix that high though? Decent jet streak with a thick cirrus shield moving in early tomorrow. Plus the cloud deck with the ongoing convection to the northwest. And with not much of a cap, should get convection firing early. Not sure if there will be enough time for LCLs to lift very high.

[OKpowdah]

12z SPC WRF for 00z tomorrow evening. Maximum 2-5km UDH

 

[tornadotony]

think the PBL will actually mix that high though? Decent jet streak with a thick cirrus shield moving in early tomorrow. Plus the cloud deck with the ongoing convection to the northwest. And with not much of a cap, should get convection firing early. Not sure if there will be enough time for LCLs to lift very high.

It might not, but then you might run into a problem with sfc-based instability.  The shear tomorrow may allow for dynamic pressure perturbations to compensate, but idk.  I'm just not sold on a big tornado threat anywhere that's not w/in one county of the warm front, and even then, I'm a bit uncertain.

[OKpowdah]

It might not, but then you might run into a problem with sfc-based instability.  The shear tomorrow may allow for dynamic pressure perturbations to compensate, but idk.  I'm just not sold on a big tornado threat anywhere that's not w/in one county of the warm front, and even then, I'm a bit uncertain.

 

I'm in agreement. Just was throwing it out there. Personally I can see there being one monster supercell, probably with a sig tor and all, riding along the warm front at 00z just north of the NE/KS border. Then wraps up into the MCS to the north with big hail and winds.

[tornadotony]

I'm in agreement. Just was throwing it out there. Personally I can see there being one monster supercell, probably with a sig tor and all, riding along the warm front at 00z just north of the NE/KS border. Then wraps up into the MCS to the north with big hail and winds.

I think that's about what the ceiling is for this one.  Much like Mother's Day.

[tornadotony]

The one thing this event has going for it that Mother's Day didn't is strong mid-upper level flow, which means any storm that actually does take advantage of the warm front early on could feature an incredibly violent tornado.